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2025 Forecast: United States

The United States’ goal is to preserve national security, economic well-being and internal stability in a world filled with countries pursuing the same ends, inevitably leading to competition and, at times, conflict. Sometimes a nation’s objectives change – or how they are defined changes – but on the whole they are predictable. From this, it […]

Daily Memo: Chinese Tariffs on US Goods, Turkish Support for Syria

Retaliation. China announced that it will impose tariffs of 15 percent on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas and 10 percent on U.S. crude...

America’s Sixth Socio-Economic Cycle

In my books “The Next 100 Years” and “The Storm Before the Calm,” I introduced a model of U.S. history consisting of political cycles...

Daily Memo: European Automakers Take a Hit on Mexico Tariffs

European impact. Shares of European automakers dropped substantially following the Trump administration’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico, a key production...

A General Overview of the Chinese Military

The modernization of China’s military over the past few years has raised justifiable questions over whether Beijing can someday challenge the U.S.-led international order....

Rwanda’s Role in DRC Conflict

(click to enlarge) The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo escalated last weekend when the M23 rebel group advanced into North Kivu, seizing...

Daily Memo: Qatari Emir Visits Damascus

First visit. Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani arrived in Syria on Friday in the first official visit to the country by a...

2025 Forecast: Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East is an Arab-majority region, but with the exception of a 200-year period that began in the early 7th century, Arabs have...

Daily Memo: Germany Reports Contraction

Still struggling. The German economy contracted 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, according to data released Thursday by the...

2025 Forecast: A World Without an Anchor

Throughout history, world order has been shaped by great powers. In the competition with them – and sometimes among them – lesser powers would...

Daily Memo: US and Russia Consider Future Plans for Syria

The U.S. in Syria. The Trump administration has conveyed to Israeli officials that it intends to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, according to Israeli...

2025 Forecast: Europe

The defining feature of Europe in 2025 will be political instability, complicating its ability to address immense internal and external challenges. Several states that...
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