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A New Phase in the US-China Trade War

(click to enlarge) Markets briefly stabilized after a 90-day reprieve on some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the U.S.-China trade war is escalating...

Daily Memo: Iran Pitches Interim Nuclear Agreement, Details of US-Panama Deal

Expectation management. Iranian officials believe that a long-term nuclear agreement is unrealistic before U.S. President Donald Trump’s two-month deadline and instead want to begin...

Southeast Asia Heeds Trade Warnings

When they were first announced, U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs brought panic and confusion to markets all around the world, perhaps nowhere...

Daily Memo: China Tariffs Take Effect, US and Russia Meet in Istanbul

Opening day. China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports took effect on Thursday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an increase of U.S....

The Challenges of Dealmaking in the Middle East

The United States is developing a new security arrangement for the Middle East. To that end, the Trump administration is pursuing separate deals with...

Daily Memo: Chinese Tariffs and Updates on Iran and Ukraine

Chinese response. China on Wednesday announced 50 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports in response to Washington’s imposition of 50 percent additional tariffs on...

Oil in the Trade War

Immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his slew of tariffs last week, OPEC+ members, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced a significant...

Daily Memo: US-Iran Talks Set to Begin

Nuclear negotiations. At a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and...

Erdogan’s Vision for Turkey

The arrest last month of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who was expected to run in the 2028 presidential race, has sparked controversy in Turkey,...

Daily Memo: Iran’s Military on High Alert

Standing its ground. Iran continues to reject U.S. demands for direct negotiations, arguing instead that backchannel diplomacy via Oman should continue. Tehran also put...

The Geopolitics of Tariffs

There are two analytic principles worth repeating before delving into the raft of tariffs the Trump administration issued last week. The first is that...

Daily Memo: Chinese Tariffs, Ukraine Security Guarantees

Chinese retaliation. China announced that it will impose 34 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports in retaliation against the Trump administration’s announcement on Thursday...
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