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Iranian and American Strategies After Soleimani

Iran has expressed outrage at the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, and has announced a resumption of its nuclear enrichment program, but little in the way of reprisals has actually taken place. For the United States, the goal of killing Soleimani was to break the Iranian sphere of influence. Its […]

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment...

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Iran and the United States: What Comes Next

In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin...

Daily Memo: Soleimani’s Assassination, Ending Spain’s Political Gridlock, Russia-Belarus Oil Tiff

All eyes on Tehran. The United States assassinated Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the longtime chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a singular...

In Egypt, el-Sissi’s Economic Vision Falls Flat

The president’s economic changes haven’t produced the desired results.

Daily Memo: Saber Rattling in Iraq, Xi Address, Turkey Authorizes Libya Deployment

Pro-Iran militia supporters drew back from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad as the U.S. sent more troops to the region.

George Friedman’s Thoughts: A Speech in Istanbul

Turkey's decision to move its economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean to abut Libya’s and then to announce that it was planning to send...

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t...

Daily Memo: Protests in Baghdad, Clashes in Libya, a New Path for North Korea

Iraqi protesters storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and heavy clashes erupt near Tripoli.

Turkey Makes Its Move

In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble...

Daily Memo: US Strikes, Chinese Tech, Egyptian Patrols

The U.S. launches drone strikes in Iraq and Syria, and China prepares to complete its Beidou satellite system.

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