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The UAE’s Bipolar Foreign Policy

January 8, 2020

Under the leadership of Mohammad bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi has become militarily adventurist, even as it subverts itself to the U.S.

Daily Memo: Iran-Iraq Update, a Standoff in the South China Sea, Escalation in Libya

January 7, 2020

Iran considers its response to the Soleimani killing, and Chinese boats cruise through Indonesia's exclusive economic zone.

The Kenya Attack and Soleimani’s Killing

January 7, 2020

The timing, target, execution and history of economic ties mean we should consider whether the two events are linked.

Iranian and American Strategies After Soleimani

January 6, 2020

Iran has expressed outrage at the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, and has announced a resumption of its nuclear...

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

January 6, 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment...

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

January 6, 2020

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Iran and the United States: What Comes Next

January 6, 2020

In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin...

Daily Memo: Soleimani’s Assassination, Ending Spain’s Political Gridlock, Russia-Belarus Oil Tiff

January 3, 2020

All eyes on Tehran. The United States assassinated Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the longtime chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a singular...

In Egypt, el-Sissi’s Economic Vision Falls Flat

January 3, 2020

The president’s economic changes haven’t produced the desired results.

Daily Memo: Saber Rattling in Iraq, Xi Address, Turkey Authorizes Libya Deployment

January 2, 2020

Pro-Iran militia supporters drew back from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad as the U.S. sent more troops to the region.

George Friedman’s Thoughts: A Speech in Istanbul

January 2, 2020

Turkey's decision to move its economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean to abut Libya’s and then to announce that it was planning to send...

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

January 1, 2020

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t...

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