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Middle East and North Africa

US Strategy and the Iran Strike

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The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own. This strategy has been on full display...

Iran’s Vulnerable Eastern Flank

Iran’s strategic position has significantly strengthened in the Middle East in the wake of the war in Gaza – even as its rear flank...

Iran’s Strategic Patience Dilemma

Iran faces a dilemma in the wake of the Israeli attack last week on its consulate in Damascus, which killed seven senior officers of...

Israel and Iran Step Toward the Brink

Iran has sworn that it will answer Israel’s recent airstrike on Tehran’s diplomatic compound in Syria, raising concerns over a wider conflict in the...

Jihadists Exploit US Conflicts with Russia and Iran

Five years after losing the last stronghold of its defunct caliphate in the Levant, the Islamic State is making a comeback. The group’s center...

In Egypt, a Hunger Revolt Is Unlikely

Egypt has been suffering an economic crisis for years, but now things are so bad that, according to observers, it threatens to result in...

For the US, 2024 Isn’t 1973

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The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct...

Turkey Plays Defense Against Iran

Since it reemerged as a major player in the Middle East in the late 2000s, Turkey has consistently encountered the same obstacle to even...

The Gaza War: Where Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah Go From Here

Hamas’ attack on Israel last October defied logic. After decades of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, a rational actor could have easily predicted...

Iranian Elections and the Future of the Regime

A new generation of Iranian leaders is emerging that is ideologically far more hardline than what the country has produced since the founding of...

Understanding the Israel-Hamas War

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Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. The group understood...

Disruptions to Undersea Cables

Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media suggest that underwater data cables near Yemen in the Red Sea – the AAE-1, Seacom, Europe India Gateway and...

Turkey’s Meager Influence in the Middle East

Despite its significant size, stature and history, Turkey has been unable to shape the outcome of the major regional conflict that followed Hamas’ Oct....

Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Bumpy Road to Peace

Ever since Riyadh gave its tacit approval for the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020, Saudi Arabia...

Turkey’s Time to Decide on Russia

On Feb. 4, Turkey’s foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Turkey sometime in February to meet with President Recep Tayyip...

Israel-Hamas War Underscores Egypt’s Indecisiveness

Like many other states, Egypt was caught off guard by the Israel-Hamas war. The magnitude of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 left Egypt little...

Latest Posts

The meltdown of autocratic regimes currently underway in the Arab world has led to the growth of ungoverned spaces. The resulting vacuum is being dominated by armed Islamist non-state actors – in particular Salafist-jihadist militias.

The three non-Arab powers – Turkey, Iran and Israel – are trying to manage the regional commotion according to their national interests.

It was during the Cold War era that a deep ideological chasm in the Middle East began to coagulate. The struggle between those who adopted European secularism and those who crafted an ideology based on religious tradition had its roots in late 19th century Ottoman Empire. Roughly 100 years later, this struggle had polarized the region.

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Read Assessment of Saudi Arabia

Read Assessment of Turkey

Required Reads: Middle East and North Africa

From our Forecast...

The Vienna nuclear talks will result in a settlement. The Israeli Air Force will not attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

Middle East and North Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

In Upcoming Elections, Mexico Weighs Its Political Future

The biggest question facing Mexico in the upcoming presidential election is how the country can balance democratic governance while also supporting strong centralized authority....

Daily Memo: Iran Preps for Economic Retaliation, China Stands With North Korea

Economic retaliation. One day after an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel, Iran’s president called on government departments to redouble their efforts and...

US Strategy and the Iran Strike

FREE
The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own. This strategy has been on full display...

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