Europe

George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe

Munich Security Conference and Europe’s Future Feb. 16, 2026 Question: Although the Europeans have some nuclear capability of their own, it is utterly insufficient to dissuade...

Shipbuilding: A Bellwether for Geopolitical Power

Geopolitical power today is built not only through armies and alliances but through geoeconomic power – the control of industrial systems, supply chains, technologies...

Preparing for the Long War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced European governments to confront a problem they long thought obsolete: sustaining manpower in prolonged, high-intensity war. At the outset...

Munich Security Conference and Europe’s Future

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Representatives from more than 115 countries gathered over the weekend for the annual Munich Security Conference. Little of substance usually emerges from this meeting,...

The Deeper Meaning of Balkan Protests

It isn’t every day that we get to address the geopolitical importance of Albania, but that’s a testament to its relative stability in an...

Chokepoints in Space Power

Outer space isn’t as accessible as people tend to think. Some 80 nations operate or have operated satellites, but less than 15 of them...

George Answers Your Questions: The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War

The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War Jan. 26, 2026 Question: Will a weakened Russia drift toward the North Korean and Iranian models of instability, propped...

Uneven Growth Continues to Plague Europe

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(click to enlarge) Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating...

Daily Memo: Iran’s IRGC Set to Launch Drills

Iranian preparations. The naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will conduct live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Feb. 1-2, amid...

How Europe Is Re-Routing Globalization

On Jan. 27, the European Union and India formally signed a historic free trade agreement dubbed the "mother of all deals" that unites the...

The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War

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Representatives from the United States, Russia and Ukraine held talks over the weekend in Dubai on ending the war in Ukraine. There’s evidence to...

Greenland’s Past and Future

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(click to enlarge) In the coming weeks, U.S., Danish, Greenlandic and NATO officials will meet to discuss a possible deal regarding the future of Greenland....

Outgrowing Old Alliance Behavior

Though the Cold War is over, there are a variety of Cold War-era alliance structures that have continued to shape international relations. NATO –...

George Answers Your Questions: Trump and Greenland

Why Greenland Matters Jan. 12, 2026 Question: I have followed you from when you set up what is now RANE and then GPF. There has been...

2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World

Global In 2025, we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had had...

Why Greenland Matters

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U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that Denmark turn Greenland over to the United States. This raises the question of why Greenland matters. It’s...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf

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(click to enlarge) Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will...

Daily Memo: On US Weapons Supplies

Replenishing stocks. The Pentagon is reportedly planning to request funds from Congress to replenish munitions used against Iran. Missiles for the Patriot and THAAD...

China’s Strategic Restraint in the Iran War

Despite the outbreak of war in the Middle East, high-level U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations are proceeding as planned. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent,...

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