Europe

The Peculiar Economics of the Black Sea Borderland

In moments of geopolitical transition, borderlands are often the harbingers of new economic orders. They are areas of inherent tension because they mark the...

On the 28-Point Plan to Resolve Ukraine

Any discussion on resolving the war in Ukraine must begin with two fundamental realities: Russia is unable to achieve its military objective to defeat...

On the Global Gen Z Protests

Over the past few months, a wave of protests led by members of Generation Z has swept over the world. They have largely taken...

Russia’s New War of Attrition

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A battle is raging in Pokrovsk, located in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. It is part of Russia's attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces...

A Divided Ukraine and European Security

A few months from now will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which started a war that has redefined European...

Ukraine as Viewed From Warsaw and Washington

Last week, I traveled to Washington, D.C., following a visit to Warsaw the week before. Both trips centered on Ukraine and how the war...

A Realist View of Europe’s ‘Drone Wall’

European capitals and NATO partners are getting serious about a “drone wall” for Europe’s eastern flank. Public pressure and a series of recent incursions...

Europe Reconsiders Its Approach to Sanctions Enforcement

Over the past week, a series of incidents underscored growing concerns over European security and hybrid threats. In Germany, Munich Airport was forced to...

How Cyber Escalation Is Changing Conflict

On Sept. 19-20, coordinated cyberattacks disabled airport check-in systems across Europe, stranding passengers and forcing airports onto manual backups. It was the most visible...

Why Haven’t Russians Revolted?

Throughout history, a certain pattern has emerged in times of war that looks something like this: A protracted conflict depletes the budget and resources...

Moldova’s ‘Peaceful Instability’

Though Moldova’s parliamentary election over the weekend may seem like a small-state affair, it is strategically significant because it gauges how much influence Russia...

Europe’s Biggest Economies Are Weighing Down Growth

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(click to enlarge) Eurostat has revised upward its estimate of eurozone economic growth for the second quarter of 2025. Growth remained modest, driven by rising...

How Drone Logistics Are Changing Warfare

Warfare is the contest between technology and geography. Geography imposes limits (e.g., distance, rivers, mountains, chokepoints) and technology tries to erode them, relying on...

The Meaning of Russia’s Drone Incursion Into Poland

On Sept. 9, Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace during a wider strike on Ukraine, forcing Warsaw to close airports, scramble defenses and shoot...

When Rivers Become Red Lines

Societies have tried to control resources as long as there have been resources to control. Whether precious metals, arable lands or hydrocarbon deposits, access...

The 2020s and Its Historic Shift: Poland’s Evolution

In the years prior to writing “The Next 100 Years” (published in 2009), I viewed Poland as a nation that had not really recovered...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

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Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Understanding Sudan’s Forgotten Civil War

Sudan's years-long civil war can be traced back to the fall of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Though it still rages on, with the attention of the Western world focused on places like Ukraine, Gaza and the United States, the struggles in Sudan have become the war the world has forgotten. What continues to drive the conflict, were does it stand now, and how can it finally be resolved? Senior Analyst Hilal Khashan and Analyst Ronan Wordsworth joined host Christian Smith to examine it all for our latest episode of ClubGPF Podcast+.

Global Growth Continues Its Descent

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(click to enlarge) According to the latest U.N. Trade and Development Report, global economic sentiment remains negative. Output growth is still slowing, and the dominant...

Daily Memo: On European Relations With Central Asia

Kazakhstan and the EU. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with European Council President Antonio Costa during the latter’s first official visit to Kazakhstan. Tokayev...

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