Europe

Graphic Essay: The Evolution of NATO

For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed...

Turkey and Turmoil in Europe and the Middle East

Massive changes on Turkey’s northern and southern flanks are reshaping its strategic landscape. U.S.-Russia diplomacy has important implications for European security, creating an opening...

The Constraints Shaping US Conflict Resolution

The international system has been in flux for more than three decades, yet the United States has relied on outdated tools and strategies to...

The Ukraine War and the Consequences for Russia

I have come under criticism lately from those who challenge my view that Russia is in decline and is not a threat for the...

Germany Is Divided Again

Germany’s next government will inherit a country more polarized than at any time in recent history. Every German federal election since World War II...

Reaction in the Russian Periphery

Though still in its early stages, forged U.S.-Russia diplomacy has compelled several nations on Russia’s periphery to rethink some of their strategic positions. Poland,...

Ukraine’s Biggest Backers

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(click to enlarge) NATO states near Russia view Ukraine’s defense as essential to their own security, and the aid data bears this out. For the...

The Deeper Meaning of Balkan Protests

Protests in Serbia continued over the weekend, more than three months after they started. The demonstrations, primarily led by students, were sparked by the...

Russia-US Negotiations Open the Next Phase Of Restructuring the World

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From 1945 until the early 1990s, the global order was based on the hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was...

The World in 2025

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2025 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

2025 Forecast: A World Without an Anchor

Throughout history, world order has been shaped by great powers. In the competition with them – and sometimes among them – lesser powers would...

2025 Forecast: Europe

The defining feature of Europe in 2025 will be political instability, complicating its ability to address immense internal and external challenges. Several states that...

Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...

Game Over for France in Africa

“I think someone forgot to say thank you.” This loaded statement, made by French President Emmanuel Macron at the 30th annual Ambassadors' Conference in Paris,...

Daily Memo: Turkey Considers Syrian Military Operation

Ankara's warning. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that his country could launch a joint military operation with the new administration in Syria if...

Smoke on the Water: Maritime Tension in 2025

For all the attention paid to the world’s many terrestrial conflicts – in Ukraine, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, Myanmar and elsewhere – tensions on...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

America in Transition: George Friedman on Trump’s First 50 Days

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As we edge over the halfway point of Donald Trump's first 100 days in his second term in office, it's possible we're seeing the start of America’s terminal decline or its regeneration, depending on which side of the line you're on. While the US has been busily announcing the end of the post-World War II global order abroad, at home, the president seems to be even more rapidly trying to upend the status quo. In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss what to make of Trump’s first 50 days in office in the wider context of American history.

Russia’s Severe Labor Crunch

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(click to enlarge) The Kremlin needs higher production to meet the needs of the domestic economy, sustain exports and supply the military, but a severe...

George Friedman Reacts to Comments: Putin’s Weakness, Trump’s Strategy, and NATO’s Future

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George Friedman returns to the Mauldin Economics' Global Macro Update to explain why Russia cannot realistically wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the current flurry of activity in the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.

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2025 Forecast: The World Without an Anchor

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