Europe

Russia’s Escalation in the Black Sea Has Turkey on Edge

Pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to end their nearly four-year war, setting off a scramble for leverage that is unnerving some of...

The European Crisis: Origin and Future

FREE
The release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy has brought into focus a fundamental tension that has been simmering since before President Donald...

The National Security Strategy of the United States of America

The White House on Dec. 5 released a 33-page document defining American national strategy. The document can be found here, and both friends and...

George Answers Your Questions: On America’s Reliability, Immigration and Education

Note: A reminder to send in questions and comments for George to answer. He can’t answer them if you don’t send them in –...

The Peculiar Economics of the Black Sea Borderland

In moments of geopolitical transition, borderlands are often the harbingers of new economic orders. They are areas of inherent tension because they mark the...

On the 28-Point Plan to Resolve Ukraine

Any discussion on resolving the war in Ukraine must begin with two fundamental realities: Russia is unable to achieve its military objective to defeat...

On the Global Gen Z Protests

Over the past few months, a wave of protests led by members of Generation Z has swept over the world. They have largely taken...

Russia’s New War of Attrition

FREE
A battle is raging in Pokrovsk, located in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. It is part of Russia's attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces...

A Divided Ukraine and European Security

A few months from now will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which started a war that has redefined European...

Ukraine as Viewed From Warsaw and Washington

Last week, I traveled to Washington, D.C., following a visit to Warsaw the week before. Both trips centered on Ukraine and how the war...

A Realist View of Europe’s ‘Drone Wall’

European capitals and NATO partners are getting serious about a “drone wall” for Europe’s eastern flank. Public pressure and a series of recent incursions...

Europe Reconsiders Its Approach to Sanctions Enforcement

Over the past week, a series of incidents underscored growing concerns over European security and hybrid threats. In Germany, Munich Airport was forced to...

How Cyber Escalation Is Changing Conflict

On Sept. 19-20, coordinated cyberattacks disabled airport check-in systems across Europe, stranding passengers and forcing airports onto manual backups. It was the most visible...

Why Haven’t Russians Revolted?

Throughout history, a certain pattern has emerged in times of war that looks something like this: A protracted conflict depletes the budget and resources...

Moldova’s ‘Peaceful Instability’

Though Moldova’s parliamentary election over the weekend may seem like a small-state affair, it is strategically significant because it gauges how much influence Russia...

Europe’s Biggest Economies Are Weighing Down Growth

FREE
(click to enlarge) Eurostat has revised upward its estimate of eurozone economic growth for the second quarter of 2025. Growth remained modest, driven by rising...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from Europe

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Europe Negotiates With Itself on Russia, China Sticks Up for Venezuela

EU agenda. EU leaders continue to meet in Brussels to discuss whether and how to use 210 billion euros ($246 billion) in frozen Russian...

No Strategy Lasts Forever

The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy carries far-reaching consequences for countries that, over the past eight decades, have labored to persuade successive American administrations...

Daily Memo: US Plans for Venezuela, Russian Frozen Assets in Europe

Escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, a week after the...

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscription Special



The World Explained in Maps

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now