In our 2024 forecast published last week, where we laid out the domestic issues facing the United States, we said we do not foresee a major war happening next year. Our model states that a major war occurs roughly every 80 years and ushers in a major institutional change. The U.S. Revolution, the U.S. Civil […]
Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...
Last week’s election in the Netherlands produced a radical change. Traditionally, the Netherlands is among the most classically liberal states in Europe. But in...
The practice of foreign policy, like many other practices, consists of hints and bluffs amid uncertainty. There’s value in making the worthless seem invaluable...
I normally try to reply to responses to my articles individually. This has become increasingly difficult as our readership increases and the thoughtfulness and...
The Geopolitics of the American President