HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

AUKUS in 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia ā€“ known simply as AUKUS ā€“ is among the most interesting...

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans....

The Strategies of the Israel-Hamas War

It is difficult to understand the strategy of a country at war sitting outside the command center. However, when analyzed from the initiation of...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nationā€™s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

China and the Philippines Square Off

The Philippines has long been an important component of Washingtonā€™s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

2024 Annual Forecast: America and War

In our 2024 forecast published last week, where we laid out the domestic issues facing the United States, we said we do not foresee...

2024 Annual Forecast: The United States

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nationā€™s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Upcoming New Forecasts

A while ago, I wrote about preparing a new batch of short-term and 20- to 30-year forecasts. We are now finalizing and readying them...

Remembering Henry Kissinger

Henry Kissinger has died at age 100. He was never a man who could be mourned, nor one who would pass away quietly. I...

A Shift in the EU

Last weekā€™s election in the Netherlands produced a radical change. Traditionally, the Netherlands is among the most classically liberal states in Europe. But in...

Remember Ukraine?

Some of you may remember Ukraine. Just a few months ago, it was all the talk. Since then, war has broken out between Hamas...

New Visitors in the Caucasus

With all thatā€™s happening in the Middle East, itā€™s easy to forget about whatā€™s happening in the Caucasus, which careful readers will recall I...

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