Iranian and American Strategies After Soleimani

Iran has expressed outrage at the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, and has announced a resumption of its nuclear enrichment program, but little in the way of reprisals has actually taken place. For the United States, the goal of killing Soleimani was to break the Iranian sphere of influence. Its […]

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Iran and the United States: What Comes Next

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In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin...

In Egypt, el-Sissi’s Economic Vision Falls Flat

The president’s economic changes haven’t produced the desired results.

George Friedman’s Thoughts: A Speech in Istanbul

Turkey’s decision to move its economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean to abut Libya’s and then to announce that it was planning to send troops to support the embattled government in Libya has changed the shape of the Middle East. The Libyan government is under attack by a faction with strong Russian support and troops. […]

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Protests in Baghdad, Clashes in Libya, a New Path...

Iraqi protesters storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and heavy clashes erupt near Tripoli.

Turkey Makes Its Move

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In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble...

Daily Memo: US Strikes, Chinese Tech, Egyptian Patrols

The U.S. launches drone strikes in Iraq and Syria, and China prepares to complete its Beidou satellite system.

The Russian Military: By the Numbers

The third installment in a three-part series exploring the past, present and future of Russian military reform.

Daily Memo: Tensions in the Mediterranean, Piracy in Southeast Asia, Diplomacy...

Turkey plans to send troops to Libya, and pirates board a tanker in the Strait of Singapore.

Japan and Iran Form an Unlikely Alliance

Security and economic conditions dictate cooperation.