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On the Leaks of a War With China

Over the past few days, two senior U.S. officials – Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, and Michael...

Daily Memo: Turkey’s Gas Deal, Blinken’s Middle East Tour

Turkey buys more gas. Turkey’s state energy company BOTAS signed a 10-year agreement to purchase 1.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year...

In South Africa, Russia Prospects for Opportunity

A country as distant and seemingly disinterested as South Africa may not seem like a typical ally for stronger powers, but there’s evidence that...

Daily Memo: Russia’s Sales to Europe, Japanese Sanctions

Russian energy. Russia more than doubled its sales of liquefied petroleum gas to the Baltic states in 2022, according to Reuters. Deliveries to Latvia...

Water Scarcity in the Arab World

Many prosperous ancient civilizations in the Arab world had at least one thing in common: an abundance of water. Today, however, the Arab region...

Daily Memo: Russia Targets Ukrainian Infrastructure in New Barrage

Infrastructure targeted. A major Russian missile attack damaged power equipment in several parts of Ukraine and destroyed other high-voltage equipment in the Dnipro region....

Forecast for 2023

Our 2023 Annual Forecast, like those before it, is an attempt to provide a sense of the direction of the world. We do this...

Daily Memo: Tanks Inbound, Turkey Cancels Visit to Germany

Thanks for tanks. After much deliberation and pressure from allies, Germany will deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. According to reports, the first delivery...

China in Afghanistan: Rare Opportunity or Poisoned Chalice?

The foreign ministers of China and Afghanistan spoke for nearly an hour on Jan. 22 about Afghanistan’s economic development and ensuring the security of...

Daily Memo: Italy’s Energy Deal, Ukraine’s Reshuffle

Italian energy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was in Algeria on Tuesday to meet with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Representatives of Italian energy firm Eni...

Tech and Geopolitical Cycles

There have been seemingly endless reports of massive layoffs in the tech industry. Partly they are due to economic circumstances, of course, but overlooked...

Daily Memo: EU Launches Monitoring Mission in Armenia

Eye on Armenia. The European Union said on Monday that it is planning to send a monitoring mission to Armenia. Armenia’s defense minister met...

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