Africa’s Worsening Refugee Crisis

Conflicts across the continent have displaced more than 45 million people.

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Displacement and Conflict in Africa
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Conflicts across Africa have displaced more than 45 million people, the highest number on record by the end of 2024. The crisis has grown for 13 straight years, with most displaced people remaining within their own countries. Millions more have crossed borders as refugees or asylum seekers. The main causes of displacement in Africa fall into two broad categories. First, there are the civil wars in Sudan, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Second, there are Islamist insurgencies in the Sahel, Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin and northern Mozambique.

The world’s largest displacement crisis is in Sudan, where a civil war has pushed 11.5 million people from their homes. In the DRC, more than 7 million people have fled violence in the east as government troops clash with the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group. In the Sahel, jihadist groups gained strength as Western forces withdrew and Russian-backed forces moved in. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara have expanded across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, displacing millions. Military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso now control less than half their territories. Boko Haram has resurged in northeastern Nigeria and parts of Cameroon, al-Shabab continues to spread across rural Somalia, and in northern Mozambique, ISIS-Mozambique (Ansar al-Sunna) remains active, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.