Latin America’s two major trade blocs – Mercosur and Pacific Alliance – will actively pursue convergence efforts in 2016, marking a continuation of a noticeable uptick in political will and activity from governments in the region to increase trade between member states. Together, the blocs’ members account for nearly 90 percent of the region’s total GDP. On paper, the groups initially appear to be incompatible; regional scholars and analysts have pointed out the contrast between the Pacific Alliance’s open market policies and Mercosur’s pursuit of protectionist measures. However, recent changes in the region’s political and economic landscape, including a move towards market-friendly policies, suggest that increased convergence between the blocs is not only desired but feasible.
Moreover, Geopolitical Futures’ model views the Western Hemisphere as an area of relative stability, in contrast to the chaos we are witnessing in parts of the Eastern Hemisphere. One expec