Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

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War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

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Analysis George Friedman -
All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

Analysis George Friedman -
The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...
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Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...
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The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Iran

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Daily Memo: Ukraine Aid, Russia-China Ties

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Drones for Ukraine. The U.K. will deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine by the end of the year, its largest-ever drone package for...
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Daily Memo: Lavrov Arrives in Beijing for Talks

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Russia and China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has arrived in China on an official visit. He’s scheduled to hold talks with Chinese Foreign...
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Daily Memo: Developments in the Middle East

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Hormuz blockade. The United States will begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, President Donald Trump announced over the weekend....
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War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

FREE
Analysis George Friedman -
All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...
Read more

George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

Analysis George Friedman -
The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...
Read more

Daily Memo: Israel Agrees to Talks With Lebanon

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Israeli concession. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he authorized direct negotiations with Lebanon to be held “as soon as possible.”...
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Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...
Read more

Daily Memo: Talks in Islamabad, Israeli Settlements

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Trump's declaration. U.S. ships, military personnel and weaponry will remain “in place, in and around Iran” until a peace deal is agreed to and...
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The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...
Read more

Daily Memo: Ceasefire in Iran, Defense Changes in France

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Pause in hostilities. The U.S. and Iran agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire. Under the plan, both Iran and Oman will be allowed...
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The Crisis of NATO

Analysis George Friedman -
The crisis of NATO was triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The alliance was created to protect the regions of Europe occupied...
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Daily Memo: Update on Iran Strikes, US Access to British Bases

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
More targets. The U.S. carried out overnight airstrikes on military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, the main hub for Iranian oil exports. The strikes...
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Audio & Video

Who’s Holding the Cards? George Friedman on the Iran War Stalemate

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump.
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Artemis and the Space Warfare Frontier

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place.
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