2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

Deep Dive

|July 7, 2016

Introduction

Last December, Geopolitical Futures issued its first global forecast for 2016. That forecast was written before we opened for business. It is now July and it is time for us to issue our first report card on ourselves. We will not release a forecast without constant self-examination. And we owe it to our readers to periodically evaluate our work. Given that our readers know whether we made mistakes, and write emails telling us, there is little point in trying to hide mistakes. In addition, trying to hide them from our readers would mean hiding them from ourselves. When you start lying to yourself in strategic intelligence, you’re on the path to disaster. Obviously, readers can dispute our self-evaluation. Just be aware that we reached these conclusions as honestly as we could.

Below, we provide a report card in which we grade each prediction (letter grades, no plus or minus weaseling) and offer a terse explanation. Looking at the report card, you can quickly see wha

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

Reader feedback

“I want to thank you for all your writing. Your look at history--causes, motivations, effects--is so astounding against the mainstream dates, events, and bias. I read as much of your site as I can, but I most of all love the look at history. Nobody has as profound a look at American & European history, or WWII. You are peerless.” Christopher T. of Raleigh, NC
“The material is always well-written, and is very useful for understanding the significance of important issues developing across the world.” Beckett T. of Washington
“Geopolitical Futures' insights are mind-blowing. Their analyses never fail to distill order from the jumble of current events. No other publication comes close to the caliber of Geopolitical Futures' forecasts.” Bill S. of California
“Your emails is my best link to understanding what is going on in the world's hot spots without the extreme typical media bias. Keep up the great work. Thanks for your considerable efforts.” David H.
“Geopolitical Futures is unparalleled for open source analysis. It's like they have a crystal ball. I'm jealous of George Friedman's ability to effectively communicate such a complex world in such relatively simple terms. I'd pay far more money than I am now to keep this service. I feel like I'm stealing.” Dominic F. of Virginia
“Your analysis is thought-provoking and informative. I am a geopolitical hobbyist, but I also use your information to manage my retirement portfolio. I love your cogent, dispassionate analysis. Kudos to you.” Kevin A of Maryland
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“The best analysis out there, by far. As a geopolitical analyst, you guys are an inspiration, a reference and a constant motivation for improvement. Thanks for the rigour and the high quality you deliver in all of your work!” Ricky M. of Panama
“I think you doing an excellent job keeping people informed about global trends. You are doing analysis in a timely manner for events across the globe which is challenging task. Keep up the good work!” Nicolae C. of Romania
“The insights that you offer often go against "conventional wisdom" and conformist views. However, more often than not, your profound assessments and forecasts, which stem from a deep understanding of a wide range of associated dynamics, have turned out to be correct with passage of time. It is for these reasons that I invest in your work.” K Singh of India
“One of the vanishingly few analysis publishers that try to understand the current situation in light of local, regional and international facts and historical events, with no discernible bias, a transparent effort to overcome cognitive bias, and refreshing willingness to go against the current when seeking to shed light on events.” Ian W. of Paraguay

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card