Last December, Geopolitical Futures issued its first global forecast for 2016. That forecast was written before we opened for business. It is now July and it is time for us to issue our first report card on ourselves. We will not release a forecast without constant self-examination. And we owe it to our readers to periodically evaluate our work. Given that our readers know whether we made mistakes, and write emails telling us, there is little point in trying to hide mistakes. In addition, trying to hide them from our readers would mean hiding them from ourselves. When you start lying to yourself in strategic intelligence, you’re on the path to disaster. Obviously, readers can dispute our self-evaluation. Just be aware that we reached these conclusions as honestly as we could.
Below, we provide a report card in which we grade each prediction (letter grades, no plus or minus weaseling) and offer a terse explanation. Looking at the report card, you can quickly see wha