In the US-China Trade War, a Cease-fire Ends Nothing

Long-term economic competition is at the mercy of even longer-term geopolitical competition.

Phillip Orchard |December 5, 2018

Last Saturday in Buenos Aires, over grilled steak and Malbec one assumes were produced domestically, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached something of cease-fire in the trade war. Four days later, it’s unclear whether they agree on what they agreed to. The official statements they’ve issued subsequently clashed in scope, tone and substance. Not that the finer points will make much of a difference for the next few years. The U.S. and China are just beginning what will surely be a long, ugly process of economic disintegration that will disrupt both countries and, given their economic influence, alter the structure of the global economy.

But when the dust settles, each will still have ample interest in doing business with the other, making a narrower yet mutually beneficial long-term arrangement possible in the future. The only way that changes is if the broader strategic competition with China dramatically intensifies, in which case the U.S. will ha

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In the US-China Trade War, a Cease-fire Ends Nothing

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In the US-China Trade War, a Cease-fire Ends Nothing