Balkans - Geopolitical Futures

Focus Report: The Western Balkans

In July, the leaders of Serbia, North Macedonia and Albania announced a new cooperation initiative for the region. Officially named the Open Balkans project, and unofficially dubbed a mini-Schengen (named for the European Union’s much larger borderless travel area), it aims to lift restrictions to travel and trade between the three countries by 2023. The economic benefits will depend on how the project is implemented, but they’ll be less important than its symbolic value. For most in the Western Balkans – that is, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro – it’s the first serious political response to the European Union stalling accession talks, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic began over a year ago.

The Western Balkans

The Balkans, also known as the Balkan Peninsula, is a geographic area in Southeast Europe with various geographical and historical definitions.The region takes its name from the Balkan Mountains that stretch throughout the whole of Bulgaria. The Balkan Peninsula is bordered by the Adriatic Sea in the northwest, the Ionian Sea in the southwest, the Aegean Sea in the south, the Turkish Straits in the east, and the Black Sea in the northeast. The northern border of the peninsula is variously defined. The highest point of the Balkans is Mount Musala, 2,925 metres (9,596 ft), in the Rila mountain range, Bulgaria.

The Western Balkans are comprised of the countries of Former Yugoslavia Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro. Of them, Slovenia and Croatia are both NATO and EU member states. Of the rest some are NATO members – Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro while none are EU members, even if they have all manifested their will to join the EU. They share the belief that joining the EU will help solve their socio-economic problems. However, having distinct historical and cultural background has created the reality of distinct economic patterns and perceptions. Each country in the region has its own imperatives, sometimes competing with their neighbor, while all are seeking to balance off the influence external powers exert over their fate.

While seeking to become EU members, each country needs to implement reforms in trying to solve its own socio-economic problems and make progress towards EU integration. In their effort, the EU is supposed to help. But with the EU having its own problems, a certain enlargement fatigue has set in which makes for the countries in Western Balkans to be their own help.

To understand the political significance of the Open Balkans initiative, we first must understand the EU’s policy for the region. In 2020, the European Commission announced a “revised enlargement methodology,” which was supposed to increase transparency in the negotiation process for candidate countries while also boosting monitoring of their readiness to join the bloc at various steps in the process – which would allow member states to make a more informed decision about whether the candidates should be accepted. Previously, national leaders of member states voted on accession only after the European Commission established, on its own, that all conditions for membership had been met by the candidate country. Even if the intension was different, the new enlargement process, not only confirmed that enlargement fatigue has truly set in but also forced the Western Balkans to reconsider their positions on membership.

Albania

In Albania, public approval rates for the EU have dropped steadily over the past five years, even though they’re still above 70 percent. The need to focus on reconstruction is not just an opportunity for the country to maintain stability; it’s also the reason that public support for the national government has increased.