Argentina ended 2018 in a recession, and it’s facing a challenging recovery. It has now gone through five technical recessions (defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction) in the past decade, and this one is shaping up to be one of the worst. Even with a substantial loan from the International Monetary Fund, recovery is a ways off; Argentina doesn’t have the same fiscal tools in place it had ahead of its worst recession in the past decade, in 2008-09. The government will need to lean on external markets to dig its way out. But just as Argentina is searching for alternative sources of investment and consumption, the global economy is approaching a downturn. Argentina may be forced to navigate this downturn with fewer tools than it had before.
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2018 did not turn out the way Argentina thought it would. The government anticipated 2 percent growth in gross domestic product, inflation around 15 percent and an exchange rate of 20 pesos t
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