Weekly Graphic: Exports Drive Modest European Recovery

The EU economy regained some momentum in the second quarter.

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The European economy regained some momentum in the second quarter of 2026. Gross domestic product increased by 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the euro area and 0.7 percent in the EU, after essentially stagnating in the first quarter. On an annual basis, growth reached 1.2 percent in the euro area and 1.4 percent in the EU. The recovery was driven primarily by net exports, while household consumption made a smaller positive contribution and investment remained broadly flat.

This points to a European economy that is growing again, but with an uneven and somewhat fragile composition. External trade is doing much more of the work than domestic investment or consumption. The divergence among member states is also substantial. Though countries such as Slovenia, Lithuania and Poland recorded strong growth, Romania’s GDP was flat quarter-on-quarter and 2.0 percent lower than a year earlier, highlighting the divergent economic trajectories within the EU.

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Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.