Reality Check

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The War Between the President and the Press

Feb. 27, 2017 Both sides are helping each other, whether they know it or not.

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The Philippines Criticizes China

Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines’ opening to China is over.

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Japan and the US: Mutual Alliance, Unbalanced Fear

Feb. 23, 2017 The integral alliance is driven by distinct motives and experienced uniquely by each country.

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Brazil Says Goodbye to São Paulo

Feb. 22, 2017 The South American country decommissions its only aircraft carrier.

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Turkey and the United States Groping to Accommodation

Feb. 21, 2017 Despite past differences, the two countries are getting closer.

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China’s National Security Challenges

Feb. 20, 2017 Any change that restricts Chinese access to global markets is a threat.

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The Unending Muslim Civil Wars

Feb. 17, 2017 Conflict between Muslim groups is nothing new.

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Turning From Flynn to the Russians

Feb. 16, 2017 If all this is true, the Russians have seen a brilliant plan blow up in their faces.

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Islamic State Faces Key Threat

Feb. 15, 2017 IS is fighting for strategic territory and the result will indicate the group’s conventional strength.

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The Flynn Drama

Feb. 14, 2017 The reasons being given for his resignation are still unclear.

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One China, Two Koreas

Feb. 13, 2017 The issues dividing the U.S. and China go beyond the “one China” policy.

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German Exports, Banks and the Shipping Industry

Feb. 10, 2017 The global shipping industry hasn’t recovered from 2008, and that’s more bad news for German banks.

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Trump’s Conventional Foreign Policy

Feb. 9, 2017 All the uproar in recent weeks has had little to do with foreign policy.

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Ukraine, Russia and Recent Fighting

Feb. 8, 2017 What flare-ups in eastern Ukraine tell us about the conflict.

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US Policy on South China Sea Hasn’t Changed

Feb. 7, 2017 Gen. James Mattis’ recent comments made waves in China, but they do not represent a shift in policy.

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Germany Buys Time from China

Feb. 6, 2017 The news that China has become Germany’s largest trading partner merits a closer look.

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The Importance of Australia to the United States

Feb. 3, 2017 Personalities aside, both countries need each other.

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Iran’s Economy Is Bouncing Back

Feb. 2, 2017 A year after the U.S. agreed to lift sanctions, Iran is recovering its regional influence.

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Poland Takes on Russia

Feb. 1, 2017 As it forges stronger ties in Ukraine, Warsaw is looking more like a regional power.

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Kazakhstan Changing to Secure Continuity

Jan. 31, 2017 At stake is the stability of Central Asia.

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Russia-US Relations in 2017

Jan. 30, 2017 The recent phone call between Trump and Putin has set off speculation over where the two countries’ relationship…

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The Utility of Torture

Jan. 27, 2017 In many cases, there are better ways to get intelligence.

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China Bids for the Philippines

Jan. 26, 2016 There is a strategy behind Beijing’s recent investments in the Philippines.

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‘Alternative Facts’

Jan. 25, 2017 Here’s how to avoid them.

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The Eurozone Faces Tough Questions

Jan. 24, 2017 Some have started to openly inquire about how states could exit the monetary union.

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Understanding Peace Talks

Jan. 23, 2017 Few formal peace negotiations actually lead to peace.

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China’s Limits in the Indo-Pacific

Jan. 20, 2017 Taking stock of competition between India, China and the U.S. in the Indian Ocean.

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Something’s Got to Give in Venezuela

Jan. 19, 2017 The government will reach a breaking point this year.

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Russia’s View of Afghanistan and the Taliban

Jan. 18, 2017 Improving relations with the Taliban gives Moscow the ability to increase its bargaining position in dealings with…

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China’s Corporate Debt Struggles Continue

Jan. 17, 2017 Beijing wants to solve its corporate debt problem using free market principles.

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Russian Blackmail and Donald Trump

Jan. 16, 2017 Was a memo by former MI6 operative Christopher Steele cover for something deeper?

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The Lira’s Fall and Turkey’s Rise

Jan. 13, 2017 The country’s currency struggle is a bump in the road.

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One Belt, One Road, No Dice

Jan. 12, 2017 China’s ambitious infrastructure plans have a long way to go to become a game-changer.

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Will Artificial Intelligence Solve the Demographic Problem?

Jan. 11, 2017 Advanced industrialized countries have declining populations and need a way to maintain productivity.

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Thinking About Propaganda

Jan. 10, 2017 Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead.

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The CIA, Russia and the American Election

Jan. 9, 2017 The release of the CIA report may raise more questions than it answers.

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The 2nd Phase in the Battle for Mosul Begins

Jan. 6, 2016 Islamic State fighters are trying to draw coalition forces away from Mosul.

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Political Conspiracies in China

Jan. 5, 2017 The Chinese president is becoming more direct in his accusations against his opponents.

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Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict.

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Thinking About a US-China War

Jan. 3, 2017 A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

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Thinking About the Arabs in History

Jan. 2, 2017 Editor’s Note: As another year begins with yet another cease-fire in Syria, the disintegration of Middle Eastern states is evident. Therefore,…

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The Evolution of Italy’s Banking Crisis

Dec. 30, 2016 The Italian banking crisis is not just an Italian problem.

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The Palestinian National Project

Dec. 29, 2016 Will there ever be a two-state solution?

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Belarus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Dec. 28, 2016 In the near future, Belarus will remain an unofficial region of Russia, whether it wants to or not.

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A Meaningless UN Security Council Resolution

Dec. 27, 2016 The international community’s gestures and edicts will have no real bearing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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The Paris Summit and the Real Climate Change Debate

Dec. 26, 2016 Editor’s Note: As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointments are announced, many are beginning to see China as…

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Poland’s Rising Leadership Position

Dec. 23, 2016 Warsaw has increasingly focused on defense and regional partnerships.

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The Slowing Battle for Mosul

Dec. 22, 2016 The anti-Islamic State coalition is getting bogged down.

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In Defense of Nationalism

Dec. 21, 2016 The concept of nationalism in the modern world remains largely misunderstood.

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Jordan: The Small Kingdom in the Middle

Dec. 20, 2016 The Arab monarchy’s short-term stability could be at risk.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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China’s Grand Goals and Limited Options

Dec. 16, 2016 Beijing is developing its naval capabilities, but to what end?

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A Geopolitically Significant Price for Oil

Dec. 15, 2016 We do the math on the oil price Russia needs to be sustainable.

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The Islamic State Strikes Back

Dec. 14, 2016 IS’ capture of Palmyra has pulled the cloak back on Russia’s vulnerability.

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Obama’s Deep Dive Into Putin’s Intent

Dec. 13, 2016 Was Russia meddling in U.S. elections, or is it just politics?

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The Insidious Method to the Jihadist Madness 

Dec. 12, 2016 Jihadist attacks on minority religious and ethnic groups are part of a deeper strategy to destabilize regimes.

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Greece’s Debt Problem Lingers On

Dec. 9, 2016 Athens and Brussels once again find themselves at an impasse.

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The Kurds: Not Quite a Nation

Dec. 8, 2016 Division between Kurdish groups makes them unreliable partners for the U.S.

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The Muslim Dispute Over Martyrdom

Dec. 7, 2016 Beyond the battles in the streets is a battle over ideas.

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Italy’s ‘No’ Vote

Dec. 6, 2016 A shakeup of the political establishment is just getting started.

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Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive.

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South America: A Different View of Internationalism

Dec. 2, 2016 In many ways, South America remains an outsider looking in.

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OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma

Dec. 1, 2016 OPEC countries have an agreement on production, but will they abide by it?

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Anomalies in Russia

Nov. 30, 2016 Are Russia’s banks failing or recovering?

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A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US

Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

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Fidel Castro

Nov. 28, 2016 His image as a revolutionary is built more on myth than reality.

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Mosul Battle to Continue Well into 2017

Nov. 24, 2016 The offensive to retake Mosul is not progressing as well as the media is depicting.

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Funding the Rebels in Myanmar

Nov. 23, 2016 The Chinese government is allowing domestic fundraising for Myanmar rebel fighters.

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Merkel Battles History

Nov. 22, 2016 As the German chancellor stands for re-election, she must grapple with the rising tide of nationalism.

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The National Security Adviser

Nov. 21, 2016 A first glimpse at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s world.

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India’s Money Maneuver

Nov. 18, 2016 New currency measures are causing long lines and short tempers.

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The City and the Nation

Nov. 17, 2016 Recent votes in the U.S. and U.K. reveal nationalism is evolving into different forms.

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China and Hong Kong’s Status Quo

Nov. 16, 2016 Hong Kong’s High Court rules vocal pro-independence members should lose council seats.

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Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands

Nov. 15, 2016 Countries in the borderlands ultimately won’t shift foreign policy to fully embrace Russia.

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The Electoral College

Nov. 14, 2016 It has attracted criticism, but the system was designed to hold the country together.

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The Power of Charisma

Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.

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How Important Is the US President – or Any Leader?

Nov. 10, 2016 Great leaders did not make history. History made them.

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Retaking Raqqa?

Nov. 8, 2016 Tough talk on a new offensive to take back the Islamic State’s de facto capital.

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The European Diaspora

Nov. 7, 2016 People who have emigrated from Europe share a common experience.

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Brexit Redux

Nov. 4, 2016 A High Court weighs in on Brexit protocol.

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Sticks and Stones

Nov. 3, 2016 The U.S. has faced some tough words from foreign leaders of late, but does it matter?

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Tensions Brewing Between India and Pakistan

Nov. 2, 2016 Neither side wants war, but both face pressure to retaliate against attacks.

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Unrest Interrupts Ethiopia’s Economy

Nov. 1, 2016 While recent protests prompt a drop in short-term production, they won’t affect long-term stability.

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WTF?

Oct. 31, 2016 With one week until election day, the 2016 campaigns are still getting stranger.

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China’s Prestige Politics

Oct. 28, 2016 October has been a busy month for Chinese foreign policy.

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What Borrowing Trends Say About the German Economy

Oct. 27, 2016 German businesses are relying less on external funding.

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Turkey Faces Serious Obstacles in Syria and Iraq

Oct. 26, 2016 Several factors, including Iran, are keeping Turkey from intervening on its southern flank.

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Wallonia Strikes at Canada

Oct. 25, 2016 How one regional parliament blocked a trade deal for the entire EU.

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Beyond the ‘Model T’ Web

Oct. 24, 2016 Last week’s cyberattack is an indicator of a significant vulnerability.

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The UK and Argentina’s Perennial Squabble

Oct. 21, 2016 London continues to find strategic value in the Falkland Islands.

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Explaining Australia’s Resilience in the Face of the Exporters’ Crisis

Oct. 20, 2016 The country’s relatively strong export numbers won’t last.

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Compromising in the Caucasus

Oct. 19, 2016 Normalizing Russian-Turkish relations are unlikely to lead to an understanding on security in the Black Sea region.

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The Harsh Reality Behind the Battle for Mosul

Oct. 18, 2016 The city’s religious and ethnic groups are unlikely to unite, even if they are freed from the Islamic…

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Biden Threatens to Threaten Russia

Oct. 17, 2016 The vice president’s recent warning caused a stir without saying much.

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The US Retaliates in Yemen

Oct. 14, 2016 The war in Yemen could shut down shipping lanes, which the U.S. can’t afford.

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Joy and Despair in European Statistics

Oct. 13, 2016 Europe needs more than temporary growth to boost its economy.

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The End of the Islamic State?

Oct. 12, 2016 If IS is weak, we must ask, compared to who?

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Germany Warns of the Danger of War

Oct. 11, 2016 With lower stakes, the U.S. and Russia might take riskier actions.

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Afghan Government Staring at the Abyss

Oct. 10, 2016 The Taliban seem to be overwhelming the government on the battlefield.

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The War of Ramadan and Yom Kippur

Oct. 7, 2016 The conflict taught all sides indispensable lessons.

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A Method to Duterte’s Madness

Oct. 6, 2016 The Philippine president has used some colorful language when speaking of the U.S., but Duterte can’t afford to…

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Chinese Companies Are Hiding Their Debt

Oct. 5, 2016 Beijing has to keep state-owned firms afloat to avoid massive unemployment.

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The Use and Abuse of Referendums

Oct. 4, 2016 They may be democratic, but they rarely reveal the will of the people.

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Behind the OPEC Agreement

Oct. 3, 2016 Russia and Saudi Arabia are cooperating as a stopgap measure to buy some time.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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Shimon Peres

Sept. 29, 2016 The prominent Israeli politician was the last of his kind.

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The Public and Private Lives of Candidates

Sept. 28, 2016 A president should have faced challenges in life to prepare for the task ahead.

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Wrestling Comes to the Presidency

Sept. 27, 2016 The candidates and the audience have thrown decorum by the wayside.

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Why the Bosnian Serb Referendum Really Matters

Sept. 26, 2016 It is a sign that, even in Europe, groups are still fighting for self-determination.

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Biden Demands the Impossible of Ukraine: End Corruption

Sept. 23, 2016 Sanctions against Russia aren’t working and the U.S. is forced to consider a new approach.

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Troubling Times for Regional Stability in Russia

Sept. 22, 2016 The Kremlin is searching for ways to hold the country together in the face of a struggling…

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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Germany Again

Sept. 20, 2016 The results of state elections in Berlin may be another indicator of an economic downturn.

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The Decline of Austerity Politics

Sept. 19, 2016 More pressing issues have taken the place of belt-tightening.

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Lehman Brothers and Germany: An Opera in Two Acts

Sept. 16, 2016 Repercussions of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt today.

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China Is Still Really Poor

Sept. 15, 2016 China says it has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. What does that really mean?

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Why the Rise in Wages Is Great News and a Problem

Sept. 14, 2016 Seemingly positive economic news for the U.S. could actually portend a recession.

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North Korea’s Weapons

Sept. 13, 2016 Pyongyang has launched more nuclear tests but it has a long way to go before developing a…

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The Middle East Since 9/11

Sept. 12, 2016 The region has changed significantly following the attacks 15 years ago.

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The American President’s Power over NAFTA

Sept. 9, 2016 Presidential candidates have threatened to withdraw from the agreement, but would this really be in their power?

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Merkel Doesn’t Blame the Voter

Sept. 8, 2016 The establishment’s view that there is no crisis in the system is leading to surprising election results for…

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Venezuela at a Tipping Point

Sept. 7, 2016 As Maduro loses support and the opposition stares down a deadline, political turmoil in Venezuela could come to…

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The Euro-American Immigration Crisis

Sept. 6, 2016 Anti-immigration sentiments are growing stronger to the detriment of mainstream parties.

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Rumors of a Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank Merger

Sept. 2, 2016 Germany’s two largest banks held talks, causing many to speculate about the future of the ailing banking sector.

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Trump Goes to Mexico

Sept. 1, 2016 The shocking visit is a perfect zero-risk, high-reward maneuver for Trump.

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France and Germany Call to End Trade Talks

Aug. 31, 2016 The politics surrounding EU-U.S. free trade negotiations emphasize the divisions in the EU.

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The Taliban and the Divided Afghan State

Aug. 30, 2016 Those who would fight the Taliban cannot present a united front.

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Uzbekistan and the Coming Central Asian Storm

Aug. 29, 2016 The authoritarian Uzbek leader’s hospitalization could mean chaos in the region.

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Making Sense of the China-Japan Relationship

Aug. 26, 2016 Both countries will continue to dance around the disputed islands issue.

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Turkey and Iran’s Problems with Russia as an Ally

Aug. 25, 2016 In geopolitics, sometimes distance makes the heart grow fonder.

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Italy, Germany and France Meet on an Aircraft Carrier

Aug. 24, 2016 The EU leaders tried to project unity, despite Italy’s economic malaise.

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Russia’s Illusion of Influence in the Middle East

Aug. 23, 2016 Moscow’s position in the region is not as dominant as it might seem.

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Quantum Keys for Classic Codes: China’s New Satellite

Aug. 22, 2016 Beijing’s recent quantum satellite launch gives us a glimpse at the future of secure communications.

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Dismantling a Story on US Nukes

Aug. 19, 2016 A recent report that the U.S. moved nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania bears the hallmarks of disinformation.

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A Special Relationship for the UK After All

Aug. 18, 2016 Germany seems to be softening its stance on what happens after Brexit.

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American Conservatism and Russia

Aug. 17, 2016 Once staunchly anti-Soviet, some conservatives are embracing Putin’s Russia.

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Rising Debt, Shrinking Investment in China

Aug. 16, 2016 While Beijing knows it needs to reform state-run companies, political and social factors create serious roadblocks.

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Germany’s Weak Negotiating Power

Aug. 15, 2016 Berlin’s authority in negotiations with Russia and Turkey is outweighed by the U.S.

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Russia, Ukraine and Threats

Aug. 12, 2016 Moscow appears to be setting up conditions to justify action against Ukraine but its goal is unclear.

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Jordan’s Uneasy Approach in Syria

Aug. 11, 2016 Amman appears anxious about developments in southern Syria.

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Russia and Turkey Maneuver

Aug. 10, 2016 The two countries seem to be moving closer, but will it last?

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China Goes Fishing in the East China Sea

Aug. 9, 2016 China has recently been more brazen in provoking Japan.

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Trump’s Nuclear Option

Aug. 8, 2016 How effective would a nuclear strike be against an enemy like the Islamic State?

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Beyond the Turkish Coup

Aug. 5, 2016 Turkey has three options for its national strategy moving forward.

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Iran’s Delicate Stability

Aug. 4, 2016 Though on opposing sides, the pragmatists and ideologues need each other.

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Why Mexico Belongs in North America

Aug. 3, 2016 Its geopolitical reality is not consistent with its categorization as a Latin American country.

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Troubling Signs out of Germany and Saudi Arabia

Aug. 2, 2016 Deutsche Bank and the Saudi central bank released unnerving statements yesterday.

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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Germany’s Dilemma Over EU Fiscal Rules

July 29, 2016 Berlin is trying to enforce the bloc’s rules while also maintaining cohesion between its members.

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Not Much Is New in This Election

July 28, 2016 The impression that this election cycle is unique is a common feature in American politics.

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A Chinese Port in the US Storm

July 27, 2016 Leaders of the two countries have recently overlooked some disagreements to emphasize their common interests.

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The Problem with Fighting Islamist Terrorism

July 26, 2016 Radical Islamism is a movement, not an organization, which makes it much harder to defeat.

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China’s Problems Are Bigger than Its Leadership Struggle

July 25, 2016 The Communist Party is trying to ensure it can hold the country together.

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Why Warnings Over Brexit Were Wrong

July 22, 2016 Short-term outlooks produce misconceptions.

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Appearances vs. Realities in China

July 21, 2016 Beijing projects an image of strength but its weakness often shapes its polices.

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Were Turkish Coup Planners Involved in Downing Russian Jet?

July 20, 2016 Erdoğan is using the coup attempt to reframe Turkey’s relations with Russia.

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The Blurry Line Between Religion and Secularism in Turkey

July 19, 2016 The divide between Islamists and secularists is not as clear as some believe.

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The Coup

July 18, 2016 How did the coup plotters in Turkey avoid being detected?

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Why Brazil’s Economy May Be Headed for Recovery

July 15, 2016 There are growing indications that investments in Brazil are increasing.

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China, International Law and Reality

July 14, 2016 The South China Sea case proves that laws mean nothing if there is no enforcement mechanism.

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Decision-Making and Disarray in the EU

July 13, 2016 The EU’s complex bureaucracy has prevented it from dealing with crises effectively.

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How the EU’s Crisis Places Limits on NATO

July 12, 2016 As the bloc disintegrates, member states will become less committed to collective security.

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The Bail-in Strategy and Europe’s Crisis

July 11, 2016 The EU’s approach to banks in crisis carries high risk and huge consequences.

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Italy and Systemic Failure

July 8, 2016 The Italian banking crisis is not only Italy’s problem.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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Europe Prepares to Face Its New Reality

July 6, 2016 EU member states are increasingly acknowledging the bloc’s inability to deal with future crises.

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A New Roadmap for Political Factions

July 5, 2016 “Nationalist” and “internationalist” might better describe current politics than “left” and “right.”

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Signs of Trouble for Deutsche Bank

July 1, 2016  A crisis in Germany’s largest bank would be felt by financial markets worldwide.

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Scotland the Lonely

June 30, 2016 After voting against independence two years ago, Edinburgh is now weighing its post-Brexit options.

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Germany with Its Back Against a Wall

June 29, 2016 Berlin is willing to sacrifice any part of the EU except the free trade zone.

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Turkey Shifts Again

June 28, 2016 It is in Ankara’s interest to keep Washington on its toes.

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The EU Model and the Muslim World

June 27, 2016 After Brexit, the EU should not be seen as a model for unity between nation-states.

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The Surprise at Brexit and the Social Crisis Behind It

June 25, 2016 The pro-EU elite never imagined “leave” would win.

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Britain’s Vote to Leave

June 24, 2016 The United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU.

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The Rules of Brexit

June 23, 2016 The EU’s future will remain uncertain even after the referendum is over.

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The US Brokers a Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation

June 22, 2016 The two Middle Eastern countries are close to making peace over a 2010 incident.

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Euroskeptic Governments Campaign Against Brexit

June 21, 2016 In Central Europe, economic and security interests are more important than ideological struggles with the EU.

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The Problem with the State Department Dissenters

June 20, 2016 If the Assad regime was destroyed, what would take its place?

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The Geopolitics of the Orthodox Church

June 17, 2016 While the Soviets shunned religion, Putin has used the Russian Orthodox Church toward geopolitical ends.

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Xi’s Strong Control Over a Weak Economy

June 16, 2016 The anti-corruption campaign expands to politicians’ families as the yuan takes a dip.

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Facing Some Truths Behind the Florida Massacre

June 15, 2016 In confronting terrorism, the U.S. needs to decide whether it is at war and who the enemy…

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The Trouble with Ending Wars

June 14, 2016 Today’s U.S. deployments in the Middle East look similar to those in 1972 Vietnam.

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US Negotiators Race Against Time

June 13, 2016 The Obama administration wants to get an agreement on Ukraine before the November elections.

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Central Asia: The Next Region to Unravel

June 10, 2016 The instability in Kazakhstan in recent weeks could spread throughout the region.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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Turkey’s Shifting Policy on Syria

June 8, 2016 Over the past few days, Ankara has seemed to relax its stance on Syrian Kurds.

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The Forgotten Legacy of the Six-Day War

June 7, 2016  Israel’s belief in its military invincibility might be its downfall.

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Why Russia Is Boosting Defenses on Its Western Borders

June 6, 2016 As negotiations over Ukraine continue, Moscow is sending a message to the West.

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Turkey, Germany and Moral Posturing

June 3, 2016 The Bundestag’s statement about Armenia is a political tool.

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China’s Perspective on North Korea

June 2, 2016 Managing Pyongyang’s outbursts is a valuable tool for Beijing in its relationship with Washington.

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Germany Looks to Ease Russian Sanctions

June 1, 2016 Berlin is performing a balancing act between Moscow and the West.

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Nationalism Is Rising, Not Fascism

May 31, 2016 The claims of an increase in fascism in Europe and the U.S. derive from a misunderstanding of the…

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Europe’s Expanding Bank Crisis

May 27, 2016 As other problems divert attention, southern Europe’s banks continue to struggle.

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A Moral Necessity

May 26, 2016 Focusing only on casualty numbers ignores the broader context behind the decision to drop the bombs.

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A Picture of American Empire

May 25, 2016 The U.S. wants to be liked, but knows it is feared.

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Vietnam, the US and the Centrality of Geopolitics

May 24, 2016 Based on ideology, Washington should not sell weapons to Hanoi, but it is.

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The Strategic Weakness of Targeted Killing

May 23, 2016 This strategy has done little to help the U.S. destroy terrorist organizations.

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The Next Chapter for the Intermarium

May 20, 2016 Growing indications suggest a new alliance structure is forming.

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India: One State, Many Countries

May 19, 2016 As the rest of Eurasia slides further into crisis, the only thing getting in India’s way is India.

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Libya and the Lessons of Afghanistan

May 18, 2016 Afghanistan is a useful case to consider as Western powers plan to send arms to Libya.

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Making Sense of Turkey

May 17, 2016 The prime minister’s dismissal had more to do with policy than personality.

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Power and Ideology: China’s Cultural Revolution

May 16, 2016 The Chinese Communist Party’s power does not stem from its ideology.

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Brazil’s Bigger Problems

May 13, 2016 The president’s impeachment is indicative of deeper geopolitical issues.

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Something That Didn’t Happen in Venezuela

May 12, 2016 What do you do when a source tells you about an imminent coup?

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The Spread of Euroskepticism

May 11, 2016 Recent polls show growing anti-EU sentiment in some of Europe’s biggest economies.

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The Geopolitics of a Ukrainian Border Town

May 10, 2016 Berehove exemplifies the mingling of people, languages and cultures typical in borderlands.

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In Defense of Party Bosses

May 9, 2016 The primary system has produced two extremely disliked presidential candidates.

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Ballistic Missile Defense and Reality

May 6, 2016 The system protects Eastern Europe from a very improbable threat.

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Productivity in the US Continues to Decline

May 5, 2016 Communication may be supplanting actual work.

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The Heirs of Osama bin Laden

May 3, 2016 Bin Laden was killed five years ago, but transnational jihadism lives on.

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Protests Spread Across Kazakhstan

May 2, 2016 Unrest in Central Asia could signal regional destabilization.

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China Admits Its Statistics Are Wrong

April 29, 2016 The national anti-corruption agency has reported that hundreds of statistics bureau employees provided preferential data for a fee.

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Trump on Foreign Policy

April 28, 2016 The candidate’s recent remarks opposed not just a specific doctrine, but the idea of doctrines altogether.

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Obama and the European Union

April 27, 2016 Keeping the EU together is in the United States’ interest, but it doesn’t have the means or ability…

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A Major German Exporter Struggles

April 26, 2016 Daimler’s first-quarter report might be a harbinger of bad news for the EU.

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North Korea, Nukes and Sanity

April 25, 2016 There is rationality behind the North Koreans’ nuclear program.

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Journey’s End: Summarizing Central Europe

April 22, 2016 The EU doesn’t understand, Russia looms large, and the U.S. presidential race spells the beginning of the end.

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Journey to Europe: Welcome to Czechia

April 21, 2016 The Czech Republic’s latest metamorphosis won’t be able to save it from its geopolitical fate.

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Journey to Europe: The Ongoing Romanian Revolution

April 20, 2016 The people are still determining the lives they want to lead and the way the government should rule.

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Journey to Europe: Visiting Romania

April 19, 2016 Despite a lack of fanfare, the United States’ relationship with Romania has become quite strong.

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Journey to Europe: The Perspective of the Apprentice

April 18, 2016 While attending a conference in Slovakia, our director of analysis reflects on the future.

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A Grain of Salt for China’s Export Growth

April 15, 2016 Recently released data has been celebrated, despite explaining little about the Chinese economy.

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Europe, Islam and Radical Secularism

April 14, 2016 Post-Enlightenment Europe has replaced its Christian values with secular ones.

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Journey to Europe: Thinking About Gagarin

April 13, 2016 The Cold War space race was as much about competition as it was self-doubt.

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Journey to Europe: Preparation

April 12, 2016 Geopolitics dictates that history takes shape regardless of opinions or intentions.

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Ukraine’s Political Instability Continues

April 11, 2016 The prime minister’s resignation highlights the discord among political factions in Kiev.

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France Confronts Germany on Defense

April 8, 2016 The two countries have diverging views on boosting their military efforts.

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Lincoln, Brexit and Geopolitics

April 7, 2016 Understanding a nation’s strategy requires an unbiased view of its objectives and constraints.

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The Old Islamic State Versus the New

April 6, 2016 Outside of Syria and Iraq, the threat of IS is most potent in Saudi Arabia.

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Erdoğan’s Not Mad, He’s Ruthless

April 5, 2016 The dynamics of the Turkish president’s visit to the U.S. underscore Turkey’s current geopolitical position.

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Armenia, Azerbaijan and a Dangerous Conflict

April 4, 2016 The dispute over territory has potential to draw in major powers.

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Erdoğan’s Clash with Journalists

April 1, 2016 Seemingly rash actions can be better understood through empathetic analysis.

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The US and Russia Bargain Over Eastern Europe

March 31, 2016 But recent bilateral talks will not become another Yalta Conference.

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Counterterrorism and Jihadist Capabilities

March 30, 2016 Islamic State’s capabilities warrant much more scrutiny than its ideology.

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The Political Nature of Strong Armies

March 29, 2016 A military’s role goes beyond fighting wars.

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Understanding the Islamic State’s Retreat from Palmyra

March 28, 2016 The Islamic State’s recent setback is not yet cause for celebration.

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Bosnia, Kosovo and Brussels

March 25, 2016 This week’s attacks in Belgium are a continuation of Muslim-Christian confrontations that began when the Soviet Union fell.

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The Link Between Syria and Ukraine

March 24, 2016 The fact that the two conflicts have become intertwined is not a coincidence.

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The Cycle of Terrorism

March 23, 2016 Identifying terrorists requires a shift in intelligence methods.

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The US Obsession with Cuba

March 22, 2016 Cuba’s location means more to the United States than any government in Havana.

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The Pitfalls of US Power

March 21, 2016 Applying a balance of power strategy is easier in the abstract than in practice.

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Hungary, Poland and Illiberal Democracy

March 18, 2016 In a liberal democracy, the people have the right to vote for illiberal policies.

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Hyper-Democracy and the Rise of Trump

March 17, 2016 Primary elections lend weight to political extremes.

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Syria and Unwarranted Optimism

March 16, 2016 Since Putin announced Russia’s withdrawal, diplomats and media have been unreasonably hopeful about the future of the Syrian…

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Why Putin Went into Syria

March 15, 2016 Russia’s true intentions didn’t have much to do with propping up the Assad regime.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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Shaping a Presidential Legacy

March 11, 2016 The limits of Obama’s office played a significant role in creating his ‘doctrine.’

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Islamic State and the Possibility of Chemical Weapons

March 10, 2016 If IS is able to develop such weapons, the U.S. will have to change its strategy.

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The US and Israel Drift Apart

March 9, 2016 The two nations’ strong relationship has faded along with the Cold War strategies that brought them together in…

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Nancy and Ronald Reagan

March 8, 2016 The complexity of power and family.

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The Greatly Exaggerated Rumors of Islamic State’s Demise

March 7, 2016 IS’ position in Syria and Iraq remains strong, despite reports to the contrary.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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Uncovering What Will Happen for Rising Powers

March 3, 2016 A deeper look at how our geopolitical model informs our forecasts.

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Oil Rallies, Fantasies Surge

March 2, 2016 Prices may have risen in the past couple weeks, but the oil crisis is not over.

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What It Means to Be Moderate

March 1, 2016 Can an essentially human trait describe a political stance?

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The B-21: There Has to Be a Better Way to Drop a Bomb

Feb. 29, 2016 The U.S. military is taking a $50 billion gamble on predicting the future of warfare.

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Chinese Propaganda vs. Western Spin

Feb. 26, 2016 Sometimes the media’s portrayal of an event can be more enlightening than the event itself.

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Israel’s Strategic Vulnerability

Feb. 25, 2016 Chaos in the Middle East may serve Israel well now, but any solution will create new tensions.

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What Isn’t Being Said About Guantanamo

Feb. 24, 2016 The transformation of warfare raises difficult questions when it comes to international laws written for a bygone time.

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The Use and Abuse of Law

Feb. 23, 2016 We examine the relationship between law and power in geopolitics.

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Brexit and the Ongoing Saga of the EU

Feb. 22, 2016 Britain struck an agreement with the EU, but will it help Cameron keep the country in the union?

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A Worrying Week for Russia

Feb. 19, 2016 Challenges in all of Russia’s important buffer zones have raised strategic questions for the Kremlin.

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Why Bombings Don’t Change Strategy

Feb. 17, 2016 If it bleeds, it leads – but does it matter?

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The Meaninglessness of Missile Defense in South Korea

Feb. 17, 2016 The strategic situation in the Korean Peninsula would be changed little by the deployment of a missile defense…

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Papal Politics in Mexico

Feb. 16, 2016 Despite its Catholic majority, the country has a rocky history with the Vatican.

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The US, the EU and NATO

Feb. 15, 2016 The United States worries that divisions among EU member states could affect its relationship with the Continent.

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Russia’s Ongoing Predicament

Feb. 12, 2016 As Moscow gains ground in Syria, it is faltering in almost every other state objective.

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The European Band Plays On

Feb. 11, 2016 The EU’s six founding members may deepen integration among themselves, while leaving the rest to follow their own paths.

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Hong Kong and the Future of Chinese Unrest

Feb. 10, 2016 Protests during New Year celebrations may not spell trouble for the Communist Party.

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China and Bad News: The New Normal

Feb. 9, 2016 With the economic downturn now firmly established, it will be important to watch how Beijing responds.

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The Crisis of Polling

Feb. 8, 2016 Polls are now less reliable in predicting the outcome of elections, as we witnessed after the recent Iowa caucuses.

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Why Russian-Turkish Hostility Makes Sense

Feb. 5, 2016 Tensions between the two countries have heightened again, although this is not surprising when viewed in historical context.

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Examining Japan’s National Security Strategy

Feb. 4, 2016 Incapable of protecting against its main threats on its own, Tokyo is caught between self-reliance and dependency.

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The British-EU Agreement

Feb. 3, 2016 The deal is supposed to give members more power over EU legislation but does not address the…

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Argentina’s Foreign Investment Potential

Feb. 2, 2016 While much of the world is in a downturn, things may be looking up for Buenos Aires.

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Islamic State and Central Asia

Feb. 1, 2016 A radio broadcast from Afghanistan raises the question: Could IS expand into the region?

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Shadowboxing in the South China Sea

Jan. 29, 2016 Pacific powers rattle their sabers, but strategic interests will preclude outright combat.

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Italy, the European Commission and the Threat of Austerity

Jan. 28, 2016 The EU so far has not recognized that the Italian banking crisis is a European crisis.

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Senior Russian Official Warns of American Plot

Jan. 27, 2016 The Kremlin wants to rally the public against a common enemy.

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Europe’s Three Interlocking Crises Unfold

Jan. 26, 2016 The interaction between economic doldrums, the refugee crisis and a weakening Russia further complicates European attempts to solve…

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Coalitions and the Islamic State: It’s Not Happening

Jan. 25, 2016 Few countries are both willing and able to defeat IS and manage the aftermath.

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Thoughts on Corruption

Jan. 22, 2016 While interpretations vary, the definition of corruption ultimately seems to rest on one’s vision of the human soul.

Reality Check

Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did…

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Italy’s Banking Crisis Progresses

Jan. 20, 2016 As bank stocks drop, the rift between Italy and the EU worsens.

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Russia’s Impossible Choices

Jan. 19, 2016 Moscow finds itself in a familiar predicament.

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Israel’s Reaction to Iran Without Sanctions

Jan. 18, 2016 Despite strong rhetoric against the U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal, Israel is as safe as it has ever been.

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The Precarious State of Italian Banks

Jan. 15, 2016 An update on the serious financial problems facing Italy.

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The US-Iranian Non-Crisis

Jan. 14, 2016 Despite expectations, both governments quickly and amicably settled a potentially volatile situation.

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Letter from Amsterdam

Jan. 13, 2016 The immigration crisis highlights the European Union’s growing irrelevance in Europe.

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A Struggling Moscow Looks to the West

Jan. 12, 2016 President Vladimir Putin reaches out as Russia’s economy languishes under depressed oil prices.

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What Happens After China

Jan. 11, 2016 The media was fixated on China’s stock market meltdown last week, but the broader significance of events such as these…

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China, Saudi Arabia and Germany: The Export Crisis Matures

Jan. 8, 2016 The impact of the export market’s global decline, which was initiated by the 2008 financial crisis, is reverberating through…

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The Use of Irrationality in Foreign Affairs

Jan. 7, 2016 The North Korean regime has mastered the art of uncertainty to manipulate the world.

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The Inadequacy of Chinese Statistics

Jan. 6, 2016 Why is Beijing preventing Chinese institutions from selling stocks if there is so much foreign investment, and…

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The Oil Circle

Jan. 5, 2016 The decline of oil prices has affected many countries, but has begun to show conspicuously in Saudi…

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Iran and Saudi Arabia: Posturing and Reality

Jan. 4, 2016 Having failed to pacify Iraq, the United States has moved to a more complex strategy of trying…

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The Chinese Central Committee and the People’s Liberation Army Face Off

Dec. 31, 2015 Sources in China are reporting increased tension between the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

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Thinking About the American Presidency

Dec. 30, 2015 To understand the American political system, it is important to grasp how little power the American president…

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The State of Islamic State

Dec. 29, 2015 Without knowing the details of the Islamic State’s activities in the weeks and days before the Kurdish-led…

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Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Dec. 28, 2015 The quiet of the past few days gives us an opportunity to explain how we decide whether…

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The Azerbaijan Question Re-emerges

Dec. 24, 2015 Relations between Azerbaijan and the U.S. have recently deteriorated, which could have an impact on American interests in the…

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The Battle for Ramadi

Dec. 23, 2015 The reality is that the Islamic State is retreating from a non-crucial town not integral to its…

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Spanish Election Highlights Italy’s EU Woes

Dec. 22, 2015 The most interesting response to the Spanish election results came from the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

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Britain, Borders and the EU Gridlock

Dec. 21, 2015 Europe’s political masters are simply putting off facing extremely significant decisions they know they must make.

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Turkish and Israeli Talks Are Underway and May Actually Lead Somewhere

Dec. 18, 2015 A regional realignment triggered by the Russians and Islamic State, and beneficial to the United States, is…

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A Budget Cut in Abkhazia and Russia’s Strategic Problem

Dec. 17, 2015 Sometimes a tiny bit of information on a budget cut in a place like Abkhazia reveals a great…

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Syria and the Fact No One Mentions

Dec. 16, 2015 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have reached an agreement, but there’s…

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Merkel, Muslims and the Problem of Multiculturalism

Dec. 15, 2015 Why German Chancellor Angela Merkel called multiculturalism a sham and how Europe’s definition is different to the United…

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The French Election and the National Front

Dec. 14, 2015 While the media is portraying the French election result as an unmitigated disaster for the National Front, we…

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Risk of a Financial Crisis in Italy Increases

Dec. 11, 2015 The Italian banking system is in serious trouble and the failure of these four banks is simply the…

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Merkel, Time Magazine and Our Take on Why She Deserved the Honor

Dec. 10, 2015 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is deserving of Time’s “Person on the Year” award because of the way she…

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Thinking About the Arabs in History

Dec. 9, 2015 As the strength of many Arab states deteriorates, it may not be possible to think of the Arab…

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A Big Day in Geopolitics

Dec. 8, 2015 We look at how several key geopolitical developments in Europe, Russia and Latin America yesterday impact Geopolitical Futures’…

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Islamic State’s Current Standing

Dec. 7, 2015 The group has managed to redefine the region’s borders, suggesting it is far more than just a terrorist…

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The Danish Vote and the European Crisis

Dec. 4, 2015 The Danish rejected a series of changes to Denmark’s laws in order to bring it into compliance with…

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The Ukrainian Mystery

Dec. 3, 2015 After the sabotage of power lines caused an electricity shortage in Crimea, the Ukrainian government displayed a fairly…

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Turkey’s View of the Islamic State

Dec. 2, 2015 Some world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama, have recently accused Turkey of…

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The Turkish Red Line and A Strategic Shift

Nov. 30, 2015 Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian warplane drew the country deeper into the Syrian crisis, even though…

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A New Crisis in Ukraine?

Nov. 26, 2015 Ukraine has engaged in a series of retaliatory gestures with Russia that may signal a coming crisis.

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The Strategy Behind a Downed Russian Plane

Nov. 25, 2015 Many are wondering what compelled the Turks to shoot down a Russian warplane they say entered Turkish air…

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Argentina Moves to the Right Following Election

Nov. 24, 2015 The election of center-right candidate Mauricio Macri has provoked a sense of optimism about the country’s future.

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Armies, War and Islamic State

Nov. 23, 2015 The future of the Middle East will be determined by whether the Islamic State’s military force is more…

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The Arab Spring and Other Fables

Nov. 20, 2015 Far from creating democracies in the Arab world, the Arab Spring ended up being a catalyst for civil…

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Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh and the Resurrection of Old Europe

Nov. 25, 2015 Europe is considering its options following the Islamic State’s attacks on French and Russian targets.

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Turkey Edging Closer to Islamic State Confrontation

Nov. 19, 2015 Turkey has avoided military intervention in Syria but may now be moving in that direction.

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Aftershocks and Morality Questions Following Paris Attacks

Nov. 18, 2015 Governments and individuals now have to face the difficult question of how to prevent future attacks from happening.

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Free Movement in Europe May Be Coming to an End

Nov. 17, 2015 French President Francois Hollande reportedly plans to call for an end to free movement of European Union…

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The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks

Nov. 16. 2015 The terrorist attacks in Paris indicate a new level of sophistication in Islamic State’s planning and coordination.

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