Deep Dive

A thorough, research-driven analysis that updates our forecast.

The Rise and Fall of the Islamic State
March 21, 2019

This Islamic State may not last, but there is the possibility of a future Islamic State in the Middle...


China’s Modernization Plan: The Blueprint and the Backlash
February 7, 2019

“Made in China 2025” promises to help Beijing dominate the high-tech world, but it has raised suspicions in the...

The Centurieslong Contest for the Black Sea
January 31, 2019

The region has been the subject of countless conflicts, and the fighting isn’t going to stop anytime soon.


A New Chapter in US-Cuba Relations
January 24, 2019

The Trump administration is applying new measures to try to effect change on the island.

The UK and France: A Less Cordial Entente?
January 17, 2019

Despite the bumpy road to Brexit, we haven’t seen the end of French and British defense cooperation.


The Third Opium War
January 10, 2019

To understand China’s current confrontation with the West over trade, historical context is key.

In China, Manufacturers Feel the Heat of the Trade War
December 27, 2018

The world’s second-largest economy is embroiled in a trade war. That could change the calculus for firms doing business...


How Brazil Outgrew Mercosur
December 20, 2018

Years of dysfunction in the trade bloc are restricting Brazil’s global ambitions, and it needs a way out.

On US Involvement in the War in Yemen
December 13, 2018

Can Congress really put the brakes on U.S. support for the Saudis in Yemen?


Tracing the Origins of Venezuela’s Crisis
December 6, 2018

The country’s current predicament was centuries in the making.

The Philippines Makes the Most of China’s Interest
November 29, 2018

Manila may be warming to Beijing, but not enough to solve China’s maritime access problems.


Standing on Guard for an Economic Crisis in Canada
November 15, 2018

Canada’s debt is piling up, making it more vulnerable to a recession and less likely to snap out of...

Brazil’s New Leader Strives to Break Old Patterns
November 8, 2018

Jair Bolsonaro hopes to pull the country out of economic crisis and political scandal with ambitious reform initiatives. It...