Geopolitical Futures

GPF's George Friedman on Vladimir Putin: "What he needed to do, and what he could do were two different things." Check out the full interview:

The euro area posted modest economic growth in the last quarter of 2024. Germany, however, remains a weak link. Its GDP contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The primary driver was a sharp drop in exports – the steepest decline since mid-2020. Details are in our Weekly Graphic:

Defense Industry Winners and Losers Amid Trump Tariffs U.S. foreign policy has invigorated defense firms in many old allies. - Ronan Wordsworth https://ow.ly/nuP750VtkYc

In our Daily Memo: Chinese Drills

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter Adam Entous, claims to have interviewed many sources in various countries who revealed the extent of Washington’s involvement in the Ukraine war and, in doing so, provides an answer to the question of how Russia was unable to win it. Entous had to have spoken with people with a high clearance to obtain this information. It was published in the NYT because it was the one newspaper the Russians would certainly check. The story was quickly translated into Russian and published in a Russian newspaper, essentially acknowledging its receipt. Details, after all, can redefine the understanding of a war. The heart of the article concerned U.S. weaponry. Rather than reveal radical new technologies, it instead explained the manner in which the systems worked together under a high degree of American control to fight the Russians to a stalemate, if not to defeat. My full analysis is now available for Geopolitical Futures subscribers: https://lnkd.in/eu4wm2Ea

Japan’s interest in deploying long-range missiles on the island of Kyushu by early 2026 suggests Tokyo is seeking a higher degree of military autonomy. But because this will necessarily require Tokyo to lessen its dependence on the U.S., this will be a long and difficult process.

America's Tariffs and Today's Global System The U.S. is measuring its strength - GPF's George Friedman in a new video: https://lnkd.in/gyaKGXTW

Russia is no longer an effective security guarantor, and, crucially, it had no choice but to accept China’s expanding geoeconomic influence in Central Asia, a region that has long been in Russia’s sphere of influence. - Kamran Bokhari https://ow.ly/SJ3m50VrV0U

The euro area posted modest economic growth in the last quarter of 2024. Germany, however, remains a weak link. Its GDP contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The primary driver was a sharp drop in exports – the steepest decline since mid-2020. Details are in our Weekly Graphic:

A full peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war is still a long way off, but the willingness for US-Russia negotiations to continue indicates a marked shift from a few months ago toward restoring a more peaceful coexistence. - Ekaterina Zolotova https://ow.ly/xksS50Vr84h