US-China Summit, Houthi Agreement

The global economy is increasingly paying a “friction premium.” Shipping disruptions remain severe. Strait of Hormuz traffic is still limited and very much in the gray zone, while Black Sea traffic is happening mostly near the shorelines, with Russian and Ukrainian ports effectively closed because of drone attacks. This increases pressure on alternative routes in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe, most of which are more expensive. Meanwhile, a White House report called “The Great Transshipment Scam” identified more than 40 jurisdictions where Chinese or other high-tariff goods may be rerouted before entering the United States. Washington is increasingly focusing on rules of origin, supply chain traceability and AI-enabled customs enforcement.