The Challenges of Fertilizer Markets

After a ceasefire was reached between the U.S. and Iran, urea prices fell in August. Though they climbed back after the truce fell apart, they are now at roughly 9.5 percent year over year, according to Trading Economics. The volume of urea transiting the Strait of Hormuz is still far below prewar levels, and the expansion of hostilities to the Red Sea has hit India and East Africa especially hard.

Phosphate and sulfur trade has largely decoupled from Hormuz, but production is still bottlenecked to just a few producers. China’s phosphate export restrictions – meant to shield its domestic market from volatility – were extended through August, while Russia has extended its sulfur export ban through the end of the year…