Geopolitical Futures in the Press – 2018 April

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April 27, 2018 Bloomberg Markets – The Main Issues That Could Prevent Peace for North, South Korea
Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman discusses the meeting between the leaders of North Korea and South Korea and voices skepticism that it will lead to anything meaningful.

April 24, 2018 Real Clear World – Armenia: Not Another Color Revolution
It took less than two weeks of protests for Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan to step down from the position. But as GPF’s Nora T. Kalinskij explains, unlike the revolution in Ukraine, in Armenia even the interim government will lean toward Russia.

April 24, 2018 WORLD Radio – The World and Everything in It – The Olasky Interview: George Friedman
WORLD Magazine’s Marvin Olasky talks with GPF Chairman George Friedman on which global leaders will be up or down over this next year in terms of their popularity or their success.

April 20, 2018 Cicero Magazine – The mutual indifference
The histories of the United States and Germany have been intertwined since before 1900. Sometimes they were allies, sometimes adversaries. Now, German-American relations are governed by the principle of indifference. – George Friedman

April 19, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: How Facebook and internet marketers really sway elections
“Some claim that Cambridge Analytica was a decisive force in Trump’s election. More than anyone, Cambridge Analytica benefits from this belief. Except for the possibility of it having taken illegal action, Cambridge Analytica’s greatest marketing triumph may be earning the public reputation of having the expertise to shape history.” – George Friedman

April 19, 2018 Radu Craciun – Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures: “World wars tend to be recurrent”
Sen. Analyst Antonia Colibasanu speaks with Radu Craciun on the future of global powers, from China, the US, and the “New Europe.”

April 17, 2018 MacroGeo – Poland, the Natural Ally for Post-Brexit Britain
By March 2019, Britain will leave the European Union. It can’t, however, leave Europe. It’s best hope to remain an influential power in Europe is to build stronger ties with another state on Europe’s periphery: Poland. – Nora T. Kalinskij

April 16, 2018 The Trumpet – Viktor Orbán’s Reelection: Another King Secures His Reign
“’Viktor Orbán is not an outlier but a forerunner,’ George Friedman wrote for Geopolitical Futures. ‘We normally don’t write on elections, on the premise that politicians are trapped in the impersonal forces of reality and therefore personalities matter little,’ he explained. ‘This election is somewhat different because it shows that the forces that want to reorganize Europe are strong and growing stronger.’”

April 13, 2018 Real Clear World – The Syrian Tangle
It’s almost been a week since the latest major chemical attack, this time targeting the Damascus suburb of Douma. Assad’s regime is again generally assumed to have been responsible. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed a short time later that there would be a “big price to pay” and, outside of an ambiguous tweet on April 12, has continued to threaten military action, yet this time he has held off on launching it. – George Friedman

April 12, 2018 World Magazine – Power players
‘[Trump] doesn’t have enough votes in Congress to get anything done. His best bet is to hold his base together and hope lightning strikes.’ – George Friedman

April 12, 2018 MacroGeo – The Syrian Tangle
‘Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is.’ – George Friedman

April 10, 2018 – Jacob L. Shapiro & George Friedman argue Germany’s reunification after the collapse of the Soviet Union was the most important precursor to Brexit
No part of the United Kingdom will feel the ramifications of the UK’s departure from the EU more deeply than London, which by dint of strategic necessity became a European financial and economic powerhouse. That is why Londoners voted with the Scots and the Northern Irish to “Remain”—because London, not England, will bear the brunt of the short-term disruptions to come. – Jacob L. Shapiro & George Friedman

April 9, 2018 Casimir Pulaski Foundation – GPF WEEKLY: The middle of an Era
Twenty years is an arbitrary time period, but historically it’s about the length of a human generation. The world changes radically in each generation, but the dates can vary. The last era began in 1991 and ended in 2008. Yet even now there are many who are waiting for the world of 1991 to return. More important, only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt. – George Friedman

April 7, 2018 Real Clear World – The New Shape of the Middle East
The Middle East has assumed a different shape and structure in recent years. Nowhere is this more visible than in the April 4 meeting in Turkey between Russia, Iran and Turkey. This group has become critical in defining the Middle East. It is not necessarily a cohesive group, and its staying power is uncertain. But for the moment, the United States, formerly the defining power of the region, is moving to the margins, and a new architecture has emerged. – George Friedman

April 5, 2018 Real Clear World – Ideology Is Dead
The Soviet Union viewed itself as the vanguard of a global revolution – this was the end that justified the means. The U.S. similarly believed it was unique, a liberal light unto the nations sworn to defend the freedom of every individual. The same cannot be said today for either. – Jacob L. Shapiro

April 5, 2018 Newstalk ZB – An East Asia Roundup with George Friedman
Can New Zealand balance between world powers? Is a U.S.-China trade war imminent? What’s the latest on the North Korea nuclear crisis? George Friedman answers these questions and more on News Talk with Leighton Smith.

April 4, 2018 Real Clear World – Turkey Keeps Its Enemies at Bay
Turkey is in the unenviable position of being surrounded by historical adversaries: Russia to its north, Iran to its east and south (via Syria), and Europe to its west. – Xander Snyder

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