Geopolitical Futures in the Press – 2018 May

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May 31, 2018 Real Clear World – India, Ever the Reluctant U.S. Ally
The world continues to react to the death of the Iran nuclear deal – and only sometimes are the reactions in Washington’s favor. India, a country with which the U.S. has improved relations over recent years, is trying to work around sanctions. – Allison Fedirka

May 24, 2018 Real Clear World – Why Venezuela Can’t Be Like Colombia
Venezuela has been set in a cycle of boom or bust with its problems buried too deep – both in its history and quite literally underground. Meanwhile, Colombia’s need to bring about domestic political stability after decades of infighting and to seek a more measured approach to economic development has created a comparatively less volatile political and economic system. – Allison Fedirka

May 21, 2018 MacroGeo – North Korea manages expectations, one provocation at a time
By all accounts, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo heard what he wanted to hear during his trip to Pyongyang last week. National Security Adviser John Bolton was drawing up his plans. North Korea had yet to back out of the negotiations. Everything looked as it should. If all this seemed too good to be true, well, that’s because it was. – Phillip Orchard

May 21, 2018 Real Clear World – China, Trade and Artificial Islands
China and the United States have agreed to substantially reduce the massive trade imbalance between the two countries, according to a joint statement released over the weekend. Also over the weekend, China reportedly landed military aircraft on artificial islands it built in the South China Sea. Though these issues don’t appear connected, they are: Both have to do with the relative power of China and the United States, and both deal with perceptions more than reality. – George Friedman

May 20, 2018 Journal of Accountancy – Helping CPAs grasp the fundamentals of global power
“At a time of technological disruption and significant political change, Jacob Shapiro predicts that Japan, Turkey, and Eastern Europe are poised to see their power strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years.”

May 18, 2018 Valdai Discussion Club – NORD STREAM 2: CATCH-22 FOR GERMANY
“Cancelling Nord Stream 2 would be a colossal blow to Russian-German cooperation in energy supplies and to German credibility in any future negotiations with Russia, both on the state and the business levels, writes Nora Topor Kalinskij, analyst at Geopolitical Futures, whose work focuses on European and Russian geopolitics.”

May 15, 2018 Real Clear World – Why Turkey and the UK’s Relationship Won’t Last
The United Kingdom and Turkey – two countries with apparently nothing in common – are more similar than many might think. It’s no surprise, then, that the two countries, with their common characteristics and shared interests, are improving their relationship. – Jacob L. Shapiro

May 14, 2018 Center for Security Studies – The Next Israeli War
Another war between Israel and Hezbollah may well be approaching. Iran, Hezbollah’s primary patron, continues to ship weapons to the Lebanese militia despite Israel’s insistence that doing so is something it cannot allow. – Jacob L. Shapiro

May 10, 2018 KJZZ Phoenix – After Pulling Out Of Multiple Deals, How Is America’s Reputation?
Earlier this week, President Trump declared the U.S. would pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. This follows the administration’s decisions to leave the Paris Climate Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and enter into NAFTA renegotiations. How does this affect how the U.S. is seen by allies and adversaries alike? On The Show to talk about that is Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures.

May 9, 2018 RTP Noticias – Olhar o Mundo – George Friedman em entrevista à RTP
“We are in a situation where the benefits of European Union membership are being outweighed by the problems… When the second largest economy in Europe takes the position that it should leave, this is something that would shock most entities. Instead of re-examining itself, the European Union has become more rigid.” – George Friedman speaking with journalist António Mateus

May 9, 2018 Real Clear World – The Case for North Korea’s Liberalization
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made another surprise visit to China on May 7 for a banquet and a languid stroll along the beach with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coastal city of Dalian. According to a Chinese statement, Kim told Xi that he wants to focus on economic development now that he has “succeeded” at nuclear development. For much of the spring, Kim has been laying the groundwork for just such a move. – Phillip Orchard

May 9, 2018 MarketWatch – Risk of war between Iran and Israel has risen markedly after Trump’s decision to scrap nuclear deal
It didn’t take long, once President Donald Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, for Israel and Iran to move around their military assets.

May 8, 2018 Real Clear World – Israel and Iran Prepare for Conflict
It didn’t take long, once U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, for Israel and Iran to move around their military assets.

May 8, 2018 Real Clear World – Is a Multipolar World Emerging?
Everywhere you turn, people are sounding the alarm about the decline of American power. The alarms are loudest in the U.S. itself. Those who oppose President Donald Trump believe he is destroying America’s influence and credibility abroad. – Jacob L. Shapiro

May 4, 2018 Dennis Prager Show – More George Friedman and Geopolitical Forecasts
Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman discusses his insights on the developing situation in North Korea, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Syrian war.

May 4, 2018 Ave Maria Radio – Kresta in the Afternoon – North Korea Deal: Real Progress or a Sham?
Kim Jong Un has promised to make steps toward a denuclearization of Korea. Is this a sign of improved relations between North Korea and the rest of the world, or is Kim just playing everyone for fools? George Friedman discusses the situation.

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