Geopolitical Futures in the Press – 2018 July

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July 24, 2018 Euractiv – US-Russia relations beyond Helsinki
Last week, US President Donald Trump met with Putin in Helsinki in an attempt to improve relations that the Russian president said were “worse than during the Cold War.” The question no one is asking is: What will US-Russia relations look like by the end of the Trump administration? – Jacob L. Shapiro

July 23, 2018 Casimir Pulaski Foundation – GPF WEEKLY: The Trump Doctrine
A doctrine is how a president is forced to operate foreign policy in the reality in which he finds himself. Sometimes, presidents proclaim their own foreign policy doctrines. Other times, observers see a coherent pattern in a president’s foreign policy and outline the doctrine for him. In both cases, doctrines ought to be seen not as strokes of genius or decisions made at the will of the president but as actions imposed on him and dictated by reality. – George Friedman

July 20, 2018 Real Clear World – The Geopolitics of London: Or, How England Joined the World
London’s time as the undisputed king of European finance ended on June 23, 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. There were many precursors to this change, but one was more important than all the others, and it is perhaps the most overlooked: the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of East and West Germany.

July 17, 2018 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: What Russia Does is Bluff, Says Friedman (Audio)
George Friedman, GeoPolitical Futures Chairman, says that a great deal of what Russia does is a “bluff.” He spoke with Bloomberg Surveillance’s Tom Keene on the day of the Helsinki summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin.

July 16, 2018 Cicero – The Trump Doctrine
When it comes to Russia, Trump had a menu of options: aggressiveness, passivity or diplomacy. He had to choose the latter, which explains his meeting with Vladimir Putin.

July 12, 2018 The Trumpet – Iran Threatens to Block the Strait of Hormuz
“President Trump is implementing a strategy to cut off Iran’s oil exports, and it is coming at a bad time for Iran. According to Geopolitical Futures, this could diminish Iranian oil output from its current 2.28 million barrels per day to only 1 million barrels per day. This would cause the value of Iran’s currency, the rial, to collapse.”

July 11, 2018 The Trumpet – Is News of China’s Rise Hurting China?
“‘China, as all countries do, has been emphasizing its achievements and celebrating its future,’ wrote George Friedman for Geopolitical Futures. He said that recent articles downplaying China’s power ‘break the pattern and thus need to be taken seriously.'”

July 6, 2018 Real Clear World – Ethiopia: A Regional Power in the Making?
When we think of countries competing for power and influence in the Horn of Africa, a short list of candidates comes to mind: the U.S., Iran, China, Russia, Turkey and various European powers. Notably absent from this list are countries from within the region itself. But this may be about to change.

July 2, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: China’s president may be weaker than he appears
Historically, as China rises, it loses stability. When it loses stability, it installs a dictator. The dictator may take the form of an emperor or party chairman, but he is a dictator nonetheless. It is in this context that I have begun to form a tentative theory: that Xi Jinping’s strength is a facade. – George Friedman

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