Geopolitical Futures in the Press – 2018 January

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Jan. 31, 2018 MacroGeo – Israel’s Russia gambit
Israel’s strategic imperative is, above all, to avoid a war with all Arab powers at the same time. Israel’s army is limited in size and ability to absorb casualties in a war along the country’s entire periphery. The nightmare scenario for Israel is far from materializing. – George Friedman

Jan. 30, 2018 Real Clear World – Growing Economies Should Bring Little Cheer
Not all the marks of the 2008 crash have been wiped away. What happened ceased to be a primarily economic problem years ago, and the effects of 2008 on the global political and social systems are to a great extent beyond the ability of economic growth to repair. – George Friedman

Jan. 23, 2018 Real Clear World – A Useful Tool for Thinking About Brexit and NAFTA
Both Brexit and NAFTA negotiations are important – they will influence how Europe and the United States will economically and politically engage their respective regions – but just as striking are the differences in the ways they are negotiating. – Allison Fedirka

Jan. 19, 2018 MacroGeo – Russia and the limits of power
The Russians have been trying to increase the perception of their power since the West turned on them following the Ukraine crisis of 2014. To a great extent, Russia has convinced other countries that it is a rising power. But being a rising power always brings resistance from those who fear its rise. – George Friedman

Jan. 16, 2018 Real Clear World – North Korea’s Unlikely Strategic Opening
From the North Koreans’ point of view, they live in a tough neighborhood, filled with threats former and current and with putative allies that did not raise a finger to help North Korea in times of need. Some of these threats emerged long ago, from the American perspective. The Korean view of history has a longer timeframe. – George Friedman

Jan. 16, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: North Korea has backed the U.S. into a corner
George Friedman sees the global political map unfolding in 2018 with the United States less powerful and very much alone in dealing with North Korea, while Asia and Europe are ground-zero for forceful economic and social challenges and their consequences.

Jan. 15, 2018 The Trumpet – Turkey’s Strongman Grows Stronger
“As Geopolitical Futures noted, ‘Turkey’s Emergency Decree No. 696 is a step toward constructing [a powerful, independent] military.'”

Jan. 15, 2018 Radio Poland – Poland targeted by EU because it is important country: political scientist
In an interview with the Monday issue of conservative Polish weekly Sieci, George Friedman said that one of the hallmarks of a rising power is that waning powers direct their heaviest guns against it.

Jan. 12, 2018 Real Clear World – Turkey Breaks With Iran and Russia
Turkey, Iran, and Russia are at odds despite setting up “de-escalation zones” in Syria. What comes next in the ongoing effort to keep the peace? – Jacob L. Shapiro

Jan. 12, 2018 Center for Security Studies – Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience
Military cooperation between Russia and China has indeed increased in recent years, as have the frequency, and complexity, of joint military exercises. Many observers view these developments as signs of a nascent Russian-Chinese alliance. And both Russia and China want observers to think precisely that. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Jan. 11, 2018 Huffington Post – Where Hypersonic Weapons Fit in the Future of War
What the Chinese need are relatively short-range missiles to force the U.S. Navy to retreat from the South China Sea. Precision-guided cruise missiles might be able to saturate, and then penetrate, U.S. ship defense systems. Warfare would then become a matter of intercepting high-speed missiles or destroying the platforms from which they are launched, assuming the intelligence is available. – George Friedman

Jan. 11, 2018 Eurasia Expert – I did predict that there would be conflict in Ukraine but not that Russia would win – George Friedman
In a modern world with all the events unfolding so rapidly it can become quite hard to predict the outcome of ongoing conflicts or forecast the course of events in the unstable regions. To learn more about them «Eurasia.Expert» had a talk with an American geopolitical forecaster, strategist on international affairs, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures George Friedman.

Jan. 10, 2018 Real Clear World – Iran’s Regime at War With Itself
Before it can truly address its economic problems, Iran needs to sort out the war that the regime is having with itself. – Kamran Bokhari

Jan. 8, 2018 Real Clear World – Iran’s Regime at War With Itself
The interests of Pakistan and the U.S. are profoundly different, and though it is possible for them to reconcile them, it is unlikely. – George Friedman

Jan. 5, 2018 Breitbart – CNN Tries, Fails to Get Donald Trump Kicked off Twitter
“According to Geopolitical Futures (GPF) senior analyst Jacob L. Shapiro, ‘North Korea is a case study in how a geographically weak country can turn weakness into strength.’ GPF views Kim Jong Un’s “bellicose threats and strange diplomatic overtures” as an effort to build distrust between the United States and South Korea.”

Jan. 5, 2018 MacroGeo – North Korea: Hollow Words Ring in the New Year
Fresh off its longest-range ICBM test to date in late November — a missile theoretically capable of landing a nuke in the lap of Lady Liberty in New York Harbor — North Korea is trying to portray itself as a country negotiating from a position of newfound strength. – Phillip Orchard

Jan. 5, 2018 The Trumpet – Japanese Military Seeking First Aircraft
“…as Geopolitical Futures wrote on December 29, ‘JAPAN IS A PACIFIST IN NAME ONLY’ (emphasis added throughout). Over the past decades, the nation has gradually shaken off the restraints of its pacifist Constitution under the guise of expanding its self-defense capabilities, to the point where Japan now has one of the most sophisticated militaries in the world.”

Jan. 4, 2018 FOX News – Iranian protesters ‘ready to die’ for regime change, thank Trump but want more support
“The agitation has reportedly become more violent with protesters attacking security forces and the government seems to be gradually increasing the use of force to quell the unrest,” noted Kamran Bokhari, a Senior Analyst with the intelligence firm, Geopolitical Futures and with the Center for Global Policy.

Jan. 4, 2018 Real Clear World – Turkey: Learning From the Ottomans’ Mistakes
Turkey’s president is determined to break the disconnect between perceived and real military capabilities. – Xander Snyder

Jan. 4, 2018 The Trumpet – Listen to the Voices of Protest Within Iran
“When Iranians elected Hassan Rouhani as president in 2013, they were eager for big changes he had promised: most notably, to solve the nation’s economic troubles and to work with the United States to defeat the Islamic State. ‘He planned to accomplish both goals by compromising with the U.S., trading Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and influence on the ground in Iraq and Syria for the removal of sanctions,’ Geopolitical Futures wrote.”

Jan. 3, 2018 CNBC – Geopolitical Futures’ George Friedman: Watching the wrong game with Trump’s tweets, US and North Korea are negotiating
Video: George Friedman discusses the United States’ role in geopolitical strategy around current events in North Korea.

Jan. 2, 2018 TRT World – The Newsmakers – Video: What to expect in 2018
“Will 2018 be the year of nuclear war in North Korea? Will we see peace in Syria? Will Donald Trump be impeached? We ask leading geopolitical forecaster George Friedman what he reckons 2018 has in store.”

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