Geopolitical Futures in the Press – 2017


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Dec. 27, 2017 Huffington Post – The War Over Season’s Greetings
Tolerance runs both ways. Customs cannot deny Christian greetings out of fear that a non-Christian will be offended. Christians are not claiming legal domination — for the most part. But they are claiming the rights of the religion of the majority to allow customs to be followed. – George Friedman

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Dec. 26, 2017 Real Clear World – Power on the Periphery of Europe
British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Warsaw to sign a new defense treaty between Britain and Poland. May called the deal a “powerful symbol” of the two countries’ close cooperation; however, the agreement speaks less to the cooperation between the two countries and more to Europe’s slow regression to pre-EU realities through the fragmentation of the European Union. – Antonia Colibasanu

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Dec. 21, 2017 Real Clear World – Putin’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in Syria
Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” moment is worth remembering now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war is over – and that he would soon withdraw Russian forces there. Granted, he said nearly the same thing in March 2016. But let’s assume this time he means it. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Dec. 19, 2017 Real Clear World – In Austria, Europe’s Latest Battle Is Brewing
In Europe, the increasing popularity of anti-establishment and far-right movements is nothing new. What’s new is the growing split between Brussels and some member states on how to deal with Russia. Austria is a case in point. – Antonia Colibasanu


Dec. 14, 2017 ValueWalk – Why The Saudis Failed To Cripple Qatar
Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports. The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed. – Allison Fedirka

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Dec. 14, 2017 Business Insider – How Qatar is handling its conflict with Saudi Arabia
Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports. The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed. – Allison Fedirka


Dec. 14, 2017 Huffington Post – Europe’s Era of Harmony Is Over
On an abstract level, it would seem that the periphery of the European Union is pulling away from the center. And the center has quietly debated whether that’s a good thing. – George Friedman

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Dec. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – For North Korean Peace, Conditions May Apply
Pyongyang has proved its ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the continental U.S., and it is well on its way toward having a deliverable nuclear weapon. The U.S. must respond, and so far, sanctioning North Korea and pressuring China haven’t worked. This has left Washington with two choices: eliminate the threat or reduce it. – Allison Fedirka


Dec. 13, 2017 MarketWatch – Why it matters if bitcoin is a currency or a commodity
Bitcoin has transformed from an idea that some treated with great enthusiasm to an asset of strikingly growing value. – George Friedman

Dec. 13, 2017 The Market Oracle – Why the Saudis Failed to Cripple Qatar
Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports. The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed. – Allison Fedirka

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Dec. 12, 2017 Real Clear World – What Is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has transformed from an idea that some treated with great enthusiasm to an asset of strikingly growing value. – George Friedman


Dec. 11, 2017 Brain Bar – Why technology is NOT the catalyst
Advanced technologies are and always have been tools. They do not challenge the nation-state. They are used by the nation-state. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Dec. 8, 2017 Bloomberg Quint – Israeli Planes Hit Gaza as Jerusalem Crisis Spurs More Violence
“So much is happening. You cannot mobilize people. There’s immense fragmentation in the Arab Muslim world on many issues.” – Kamran Bokhari


Dec. 8, 2017 Equities – Geopolitical Risk Isn’t Driving Rising Oil Prices
Experts explained the spike with vague references to “geopolitical risk,” without really detailing what those risks entailed. Such explanations are not wrong, but they are careless. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder

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Dec. 7, 2017 Real Clear World – Brexit and the Geopolitics of Divorce
The EU wants the breakup to hurt London, even if it hurts Europe in the process. – George Friedman


Dec. 5, 2017 Equities – This Map Shows Germany’s Critical Mistakes Fighting Russia in WWII
The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of World War II. – George Friedman

Dec. 5, 2017 Live Mint – Opec deal will support oil prices, but long-term cap remains
As an article by George Friedman and Xander Snyder of Geopolitical Futures said, “Rising oil prices cannot be explained solely by events in the Middle East or by Opec’s cuts. Rather, it’s a combination of Opec’s cuts and the inability in the near term of shale drillers to significantly expand capacity…”

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Dec. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – Israel and Iran in Syria
Israel has had very limited involvement in Syria. In fact, it has had limited involvement in much of the upheaval that has been sweeping the Middle East. Given Netanyahu’s statement and the substantial public coverage of this airstrike, it would seem that the Israelis are on the threshold of changing this policy. – George Friedman

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Nov. 30, 2017 Real Clear World – Iran Reshapes the Middle East
Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. – George Friedman


Nov. 30, 2017 The Epoch Times – The Cracks in China’s Economy
“The challenge however, is that limiting the funds available to the real estate industry can also lead to a crisis. China’s difficult task, then, is to decrease the amount of off-balance-sheet debt while preventing a downturn in real estate that could threaten the economy,” the Geopolitical Futures report states.

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Nov. 29, 2017 Business Insider – Here’s how Nazi Germany lost on the Eastern Front to the Soviet Union in World War II
The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of World War II. – George Friedman


Nov. 29, 2017 Huffington Post – Iran Reshapes the Middle East
Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. – George Friedman

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Nov. 29, 2017 Real Clear World – Why the Next U.S. Recession Could Be Worse Than the Last
In January, we forecast that the signs of just such a recession would emerge by the end of the year. And emerge they have. The yield curve between short-term and long-term US Treasuries is the flattest it has been at any point in the past 10 years. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Nov. 29, 2017 CITY A.M. – A US recession is imminent, and Germany may suffer the most
“‘We have to wait for Germany to make its move,’ George Friedman declared at the 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference.”

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Nov. 28, 2017 Real Clear World – In Israel, Danger Is on the Horizon
The fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq put a number of issues on hold in the Middle East. But the Islamic State is now all but defeated, and with the loss of a common enemy has come the loss of a common purpose for the anti-IS coalition. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Nov. 28, 2017 interest.co.nz – George Friedman & Xander Snyder probe what’s behind the recent rise in oil prices
For weeks, developments in Saudi Arabia have been cited in commentary on oil markets. It all comes down to the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran – a rivalry that plays out throughout the region, in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere. – George Friedman & Xander Snyder

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Nov. 27, 2017 Real Clear World – China’s Reform Troubles Start at the Local Level
Two cities in China’s Inner Mongolia region recently canceled planned mass-transit rail lines, and several other cities are struggling to get approval for projects of their own. These cancellations and delays mark the latest step in Beijing’s efforts to rein in local government debt. – Matthew Massee


Nov. 25, 2017 The Epoch Times – Who’s Responsible for the Booming Economy?
“[The president], after all, will only be the president and his unilateral powers will be limited. For most of the things he wants to do, he needs Congress to go along,” writes George Friedman of research firm Geopolitical Futures.


Nov. 23, 2017 CFA Institute Enterprising Investor – George Friedman: A US Recession Is Imminent, So Watch Germany
“In his presentation to financial professionals in Berlin, [George Friedman] explained that ‘there is one last piece’ of the global financial crisis that must play out ‘before we can move on.'”


Nov. 22, 2017 ValueWalk – A Nationalist Movement Is Brewing In India-And Indians Seem To Support It
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.

Nov. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle – India’s Brewing Nationalist Movement
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.

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Nov. 21, 2017 Real Clear World – War, Nuclear War and the Law
The U.S. Senate held hearings last week on the president’s authority to use nuclear weapons. The trigger for the hearings was the North Korea situation, and the fear among some that President Donald Trump might launch a reckless nuclear attack against the North Koreans. – George Friedman

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Nov. 18, 2017 Real Clear World – A Vision for India’s Future
According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Nov. 18, 2017 interest.co.nz – George Friedman takes a look at Chinese authorities efforts to keep the country’s burgeoning financial sector in check and highlights the extent of the challenges they face
Top government officials in China understand, and aren’t afraid to talk about, the problems in the financial system. But there are no simple solutions. Creating new committees and regulations is easy; pre-empting problems and enforcing changes are not. – George Friedman and Matthew Massee


Nov. 17, 2017 Super Express – George Friedman dla Super Expressu: Rządy PiS to nadal demokracja liberalna
What Trump says is a catastrophe. What he does is insignificant, says American political scientist George Friedman in a conversation with Super Express


Nov. 15, 2017 Газета ЛИТЕР – «Астана клуб» – эффект есть
The third meeting of the Astana Club has finished its work in the Nazarbayev Center. The largest figures of the global expert community included George Friedman.

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Nov. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – In the Ukraine Peace Process, Kyiv Makes Itself Heard
President Donald Trump’s recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin has overshadowed a week’s worth of developments in Ukraine, a country that Russia and the U.S., ironically, have a shared interest in pacifying. – Allison Fedirka


Nov. 13, 2017 The Trumpet – German Military Plans for a Possible Collapse of the West
Antonia Colibasanu wrote for Geopolitical Futures: “The release of details about Germany’s first national defense strategy in decades is a signal to the world that it doesn’t intend to sit idle.” For 70 years, Germany has been content to sit in America’s shadow and hasn’t bothered doing this kind of planning. That time is over.


Nov. 12, 2017 Bloomberg Markets – Lebanon’s Hariri Says He’s Free in Saudi Arabia, Back Soon
“Hariri is stuck in the middle,” said Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures. “He wants to counter Iran and Hezbollah but does not want to simply be a Saudi pawn on this chessboard.”

Nov. 12, 2017 Channel One Russia – Год за три: с чем Дональд Трамп подходит к концу первой четверти своего президентского срока?
“When Trump became president, it turned out that he could not make decisions on his own. I think that Trump really did not understand this before. And it still makes him furious,” says political scientist George Friedman.


Nov. 12, 2017 Вестник Кавказа – Turkey: political implications of financial problems
Turkish President Erdogan intends to increase access to credit to stimulate economic activity. This is a political goal, although motivated by economic reasons. Analysts of Business Insider George Friedman and Xander Snyder in the article ‘Turkey faces economic dilemma that will have global implications’ came to this conclusion.


Nov. 11, 2017 Polskie Radio – “He was treated like a friend.” Trump in China
George Friedman was a guest on Polskie Radio during the Warsaw Security Forum.

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Nov. 11, 2017 Real Clear World – Profiling Lebanon: The Western Front of a Proxy War
If the Middle East is at least in part a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then Lebanon may be called its western front. – Kamran Bokhari

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Nov. 11, 2017 Business Insider – Turkey faces an economic dilemma that will have global implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder


Nov. 10, 2017 dsnews.ua – MCKINSEY & COMPANY ОТМЕТИЛА 15-ЛЕТИЕ РАБОТЫ В УКРАИНЕ
More than 250 leaders of the private and social sectors of Ukraine, as well as representatives of the diplomatic corps and international financial institutions took part in the event. Invited speaker George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and former chairman of Stratfor, called on the Ukrainian government to create solutions for the country’s economic problems and seize opportunities.


Nov. 10, 2017 BBC World – Video: Kamran Bokhari talking to BBC World about KSA vs Iran in Lebanon


Nov. 10, 2017 Newsmax Finance – Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder

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Nov. 10, 2017 Business Insider – 5 maps that explain China’s strategy
There is a gap between what is generally expected of China and what China actually does. To understand what China’s actual national strategy is, it is helpful to follow the logic inherent in the following five maps. – George Friedman (originally written January 2016

Nov. 9, 2017 The Market Oracle – Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder


Nov. 8, 2017 ValueWalk – Why Spain Is More Fractured Than You Think
Geography has confounded every ruler from Isabella I to Mariano Rajoy. But it’s not that simple. If geography alone defined political power, Spain would never have unified as a country, let alone become one of the richest and most powerful empires in the modern world.


Nov. 8, 2017 Huffington Post – Saudi Arabia’s Saturday Night Massacre
Saudi Arabia’s 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, has extravagant plans for economic development, and last week arranged for the arrest of some of the most powerful ministers and princes in the country. – George Friedman

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Nov. 8, 2017 Real Clear World – India Banks on a New Stimulus Plan
India’s central government is taking a bigger role in managing the country’s financial system through a new stimulus plan that will inject cash into banks and infrastructure. – Xander Snyder


Nov. 8, 2017 Equities – Here’s Why Spain Is More Diverse Than You Think
Geography has confounded every ruler from Isabella I to Mariano Rajoy. But it’s not that simple. If geography alone defined political power, Spain would never have unified as a country, let alone become one of the richest and most powerful empires in the modern world.

Nov. 8, 2017 Interest.co.nz – George Friedman & Xander Snyder probe the broader regional importance and challenges of Turkey’s capital shortfall leading it to borrow overseas
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase investment by increasing available credit to spur economic activity. The problem Erdogan encountered, however, is that there was not enough domestic capital available to meet Turkey’s lending needs. – George Friedman & Xander Snyder


Nov. 8, 2017 The Trumpet – Are German Politics Broken?
As Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman noted about a month ago, perhaps the most surprising thing about Europe’s crises is that so few believe there is a serious problem. On October 9, he wrote, “I see a pattern of disintegration that requires the energy generated by panic if it is to be solved.”

Nov. 7, 2017 CTV News Channel – Video: Saudie Arabia Accuses Iran of “Direct Military Agression”
Kamran Bokhari on Saudi Arabia accusing Iran of “direct military aggression” following an intercepted missile headed for the capital of Riyadh.

Nov. 6, 2017 Eurasia Review – Saudi King Orders Arrest Of 38 Officials For ‘Corruption’ – OpEd
As Bloomberg notes, changing the head of the National Guard, an institution that’s been controlled by the clan of the late King Abdullah, “is not like changing the minister of oil,” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures and a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this leads to greater fissures within the royal family.”


Nov. 6, 2017 Bloomberg Markets – Video: Geopolitical Futures Says Crown Prince Moving Too Boldly
Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, discusses Saudi Arabia’s corruption crackdown and what it means for the kingdom. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: Middle East.”

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Nov. 6, 2017 Real Clear World – Saudi Arabia, at War With Itself
Forget Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, just a few of the countries in which Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war with Iran, its long-time enemy. The Saudi royal family now appears to be at war with itself. Regardless of who wins, the conflict could destabilize Saudi Arabia, which was already weakening anyway. – Kamran Bokhari

Nov. 3, 2017 The Market Oracle –Here’s Why Catalonia Has Put The EU In Danger
Catalonia is vying to become Europe’s newest nation-state, but this is a battle Catalonia ultimately can’t win. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Nov. 3, 2017 CTV News Channel – Video: ISIS Loses Another Stronghold
Kamran Bokhari on ISIS losing another stronghold as the Syrian army have recaptured the city of Deir el-Zour.

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Nov. 2, 2017 Real Clear World – Containing China on the Open Seas
China’s maritime presence is slowly spreading, and as it does, the outlines of a loose coalition to stop that spread are gradually taking shape. – Phillip Orchard


Nov. 1, 2017 DELFI – G. Friedmanas: Lietuva užima kritinę poziciją
Lithuania and U.S. share common strategic goals and interests. – George Friedman


Nov. 1, 2017 Huffington Post – Kennedy’s Death and the World of Conspiracy Theories
Half the electorate believes that the president is linked to Russia and the other half believes that the “deep state” is trying to destroy him. The trail of distrust that began in 1963 and mushroomed into a political culture of fear and loathing is at the root of the problem. – George Friedman


Nov. 1, 2017 Equities – Almost All Countries In Europe Have Border Issues
The European Union promised universal prosperity if everyone suspended the question of borders and ignored their identities. It was a good bargain. But times have changed, and economic problems make borders much more important. Europe, of course, has no solution to the problem. – George Friedman

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Nov. 1, 2017 Real Clear World – First Cut at a Theory
In all types of analysis, the main problem for any analyst is distinguishing the noise from the signal as you comb through the daily release of reports, news and intelligence. This is, of course, the hardest task in analysis. – George Friedman

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Oct. 31, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: Almost all of Europe’s countries have border issues
The European Union was a good bargain. But times have changed, and economic problems make borders much more important. – George Friedman

Oct. 31, 2017 In Serbia Today – SAUDI PRINCE READY TO ERADICATE EXTREMISM
Now, it will be really tough for the Saudi government to tackle the hardliners, said Kamran Bokhari. Bokhari, the senior analyst with ‘Geopolitical Futures’ intelligence firm and a senior fellow with the Centre for Global Policy, explained: “The Saudis will have to deal with some pushback – both from those who oppose the reforms and from those who don’t think they go far enough. They also have to contend with the most radical element of society: jihadists.”


Oct. 31, 2017 ValueWalk –Almost All Countries In Europe Have Border Issues
The European Union promised universal prosperity if everyone suspended the question of borders and ignored their identities. It was a good bargain. But times have changed, and economic problems make borders much more important. Europe, of course, has no solution to the problem. – George Friedman

Oct. 31, 2017 The Market Oracle –Almost All Countries In Europe Have Border Issues


Oct. 30, 2017 Newsmax Finance –Almost All Countries In Europe Have Border Issues
The European Union promised universal prosperity if everyone suspended the question of borders and ignored their identities. It was a good bargain. But times have changed, and economic problems make borders much more important. Europe, of course, has no solution to the problem. – George Friedman

Oct. 27, 2017 Business Review – Ambassador Maior: Romania is engaged in the reconstruction of EU
The Romanian ambassador in USA George Maior stated during the “Geopolitical Futures” conference in New York that Romania is a growing nation, engaged in the reconstruction of the European Union and a strategic partner of USA.


Oct. 26, 2017 Bloomberg Surveillance – Video: Friedman Says Japan a ‘World Class’ Military Power
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures LLC, discusses Japan’s military capabilities and conflicts with China in the South China Sea.


Oct. 26, 2017 Equities – Trump’s Indecision About North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific
Much of Asia had been in a holding pattern in the lead-up to the congress. But now that holding pattern is over, we can look ahead to some key events in the region that will have a global impact. – George Friedman


Oct. 26, 2017 The Straits Times – Saudi prince says kingdom returning to ‘moderate’ Islam
Geopolitical Futures senior analyst Kamran Bokhari said for the Crown Prince and his father, King Salman, the slump in oil revenue meant the old way of buying loyalty from interest groups was no longer viable.


Oct. 26, 2017 Breitbart – Tesla’s China Factory Represents Partnership with World’s Largest Market
According to George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures, Xi’s speech signaled that China’s immense capital flow to expand state-owned enterprises will be redirected into higher wages and entitlement payments so the inland poor can increase consumption.

Oct. 26, 2017 The Market Oracle – Trump’s Indecision about North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific
China’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party is getting a lot of attention right now. In the opening ceremony, President Xi Jinping heralded the beginning of a new era in China. Surprisingly, he was also very honest about the inadequacy of his first term. – George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 25, 2017 Newsmax Finance – Trump’s Indecision About North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific
Much of Asia had been in a holding pattern in the lead-up to the congress. But now that holding pattern is over, we can look ahead to some key events in the region that will have a global impact. – George Friedman

Oct. 25, 2017 Business Standard – Saudi crown prince tells investors he is taking on extremists
“The risk here is that you can’t just throw away the old fundamentals of support of the kingdom. It’s like jumping off one train that’s still moving and trying to get on another one,” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures and a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy. “The political system of the kingdom is dependent on the religious establishment.”


Oct. 24, 2017 The Middletown Press – Saudi prince tells investors he’s taking on religious extremists
“The risk here is that you can’t just throw away the old fundamentals of support of the kingdom. It’s like jumping off one train that’s still moving and trying to get on another one,” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures and a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy. “The political system of the kingdom is dependent on the religious establishment.”

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Oct. 23, 2017 Real Clear World – Europe’s Border Problem
For centuries Europe has fought wars over borders. Europeans generally accepted that living with unreasonable or unjust borders was far better than trying to get them right. – George Friedman


Oct. 23, 2017 Newsmax Finance – Germany’s Delegation to Russia Signals That Merkel Looking for New Allies
A delegation of executives from major German corporations recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such delegations are not unusual. Sometimes it is routine, sometimes a courtesy. But occasionally, it has significance. In the case of Russia-Germany relations, such meetings are always potentially significant. – George Friedman

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Oct. 23, 2017 Real Clear World – China Decides It’s Time to Talk About Chinese Debt
Amid the fanfare of the Communist Party of China’s National Congress, Beijing acknowledged what most of us have known for some time: China has a serious debt problem. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 20, 2017 CNBC – The massive Saudi Aramco IPO remains murky — but details could be on the way
“One thing I’m very confident of is that [officials] don’t know what they’re going to do yet,” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with intelligence firm Geopolitical Futures as well as a senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy. “To me, it sounds like they don’t have their house in order.”

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Oct. 19, 2017 Real Clear World – In China, a New Political Era Begins
The world has changed since modern China was founded, and it seems that China, not for the first time, is changing with it. – Matthew Massee


Oct. 18, 2017 The Trumpet – Is Xi Jinping About to Push China Into Another Maoist Era?
As Geopolitical Futures pointed out, Xi’s tightening grip on China is less about one man becoming powerful than it is about the elite of the world’s most populous nation preparing it to enter into a new turbulent era in international affairs: “[I]t was the need to streamline decision-making, not his thirst for power, that created room for Xi’s political maneuvering in the first place.

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Oct. 18, 2017 Real Clear World – The Global Consensus Against the Iraqi Kurds
Iraqi government forces took control of the Kurdish-dominated city of Kirkuk on Oct. 16, part of a growing dispute between the Kurdistan Regional Government, which held an independence referendum last month, and the government in Baghdad. – Kamran Bokhari


Oct. 17, 2017 CBC News – Raqqa Liberated From ISIS
CBC News Network’s Andrew Nichols spoke to Kamran Bokhari to get his analysis on how big of victory this is for the liberation forces.


Oct. 17, 2017 Equities – How China Could Use North Korea Against the US
Of all the parties involved in the Korean missile crisis, the most difficult to read is China. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Oct. 16, 2017 Real Clear World – In Africa, Jihadists See a Chance to Expand
As Islamist militant groups attempt to expand their operations into new areas, some have looked to the Sahel region in western and central Africa and seen opportunity. – Allison Fedirka


Oct. 14, 2017 CBC News – Video: President Trump Targets Iran’s Elite Militia
CBC News Network’s Natasha Fatah spoke to Kamran Bokhari to get his thoughts on the role of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and what President Trump’s recent comments about the Iran deal mean for the country.


Oct. 14, 2017 BBC World – Video: Kamran Bokhari speaks to BBC World on Trump decertifies Iran nuclear deal


Oct. 12, 2017 FOX News – Turkey’s relationship with the West crumbles amid new jail sentence for American journalist
Erdoğan has raised the issue of Zarrab’s arrest in the past, claiming that there are “malicious” intensions behind the U.S. nabbing him. However, Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, contends that it is unlikely these people are being used as pawn for extradition, as the Turks have learned this simply won’t work.

Oct. 11, 2017 CTV News Channel – Video: Canadian-American Family Freed After 5 Years
“Something doesn’t really add up here.”- GPF Senior Analyst Kamran Bokhari on the release of a Canadian-American family from a Taliban-linked group


Oct. 11, 2017 Huffington Post – Manners and Political Life
Today, we are surrounded by politicians who have decided that honesty requires that they show how deeply they detest each other, and a public that feels free to display its contempt for any with whom it disagrees. – George Friedman

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Oct. 11, 2017 Business Insider – FRIEDMAN: EU officials are out of step with reality— Europeans don’t see what’s coming at them
Catalonia — which is home to Barcelona, a large and economically vital city in Spain — held an independence referendum October 1, something the government in Madrid has tried to stop. – George Friedman

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Oct. 11, 2017 Real Clear World – North Korea: Where China Can Beat the U.S.
Of all the parties involved in the Korean missile crisis, the most difficult to read is China. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 10, 2017 Equities – EU Officials Don’t See What’s Coming at Them
The political upheavals of Europe are secondary and actually irrelevant to the real issue—making money. This is why the EU measures success in economic terms. – George Friedman


Oct. 10, 2017 TRT World – A new era in Turkish-Venezuelan relations?
Turkey and Venezuela don’t have many things in common but they do understand realpolitik. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Oct. 10, 2017 The Market Oracle – Catalonia Has Already Lost This Battle
Catalonia simply does not have the monopoly on force necessary to even vie for control of its territory, let alone win it. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 9, 2017 Newsmax Finance – EU Officials Out Of Step With Reality
The political upheavals of Europe are secondary and actually irrelevant to the real issue—making money. This is why the EU measures success in economic terms. – George Friedman

Oct. 9, 2017 The Market Oracle – EU Officials Out Of Step With Reality, Europeans Don’t See What’s Coming at Them


Oct. 8, 2017 ValueWalk – Capital Is Flocking to Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman


Oct. 7, 2017 MacroGeo – Can US relations stand the test of time?
The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists – Kamran Bokhari

Oct. 6, 2017 The Market Oracle – Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman


Oct. 5, 2017 Newsmax – Eastern Europe Becoming Target for Capital From All Around World
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman

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Oct. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – Intellectuals and Thugs: The Russian Revolution
George Friedman: If human progress was certain, then why should the intellectual have to undertake the effort and risk of driving it forward? The intellectual hungered for power and recognition, and therefore the vision of progress being his to deliver to humanity was tremendously seductive.


Oct. 4, 2017 Huffington Post – Intellectuals and Thugs: The Russian Revolution
The 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution is approaching. It was a revolution based not merely on hope but on the certainty that the human condition could be filled with equality, plenty and freedom. It created a regime that was willing and felt compelled to go to any lengths to create that perfection, but that regime ended in 1991, exhausted by the squalor it had created. – George Friedman


Oct. 4, 2017 Radio Poland – Poland to become regional powerbroker
In 30 years Poland will become a regional powerbroker, with the prospect of playing an important role on the international arena, renowned American geopolitical futurist and political analyst George Friedman has argued.

Oct. 2, 2017 wGospodarce.pl – Friedman: Za 30 lat Polska będzie regionalną potęgą

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Sept. 30, 2017 Real Clear World – A Fight Spain Can’t Win
The autonomous Spanish community of Catalonia plans to hold an independence referendum on Oct. 1. The Spanish government intends to prevent that referendum from taking place ­– by any means necessary. Ironically, Spain’s crackdown, while predictable, exacerbates the very threat Spain is trying to subdue. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Sept. 30, 2017 ValueWalk – The Equifax Hack Must Be A Wake-Up Call To Redefine Digital Security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

Sept. 30, 2017 Wszystko Co Najważniejsze – Co dzieje się w Polsce?

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Sept. 28, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: The Equifax hack must be a wake-up call to redefine digital security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

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Sept. 27, 2017 Real Clear World – Poland Challenges the European Identity
Poland elected a government that pledged to change the direction in which the country was moving. The new government was of the right. It sought to change the management of the state-owned media and “reform” (in its terms) the judiciary. So far this is politics as usual. – George Friedman

Sept. 27, 2017 The Market Oracle – The Equifax Hack Must Be A Wake-Up Call To Redefine Digital Security


Sept. 27, 2017 Newsmax – The Equifax Hack Must Be a Wake-Up Call to Redefine Digital Security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

Sept. 27, 2017 Emerging Europe – POLAND CHALLENGES THE EUROPEAN IDENTITY
Poland elected a government that pledged to change the direction in which the country was moving. The new government was of the right. It opposed the policies and institutional stance of the previous, left-of-centre government. – George Friedman

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Sept. 26, 2017 Real Clear World – The Looming Confrontation in German Mainstream Politics
Germans headed to the polls over the weekend in an election that saw declining support for establishment parties and rising popularity of a formerly fringe nationalist party. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union experienced its worst performance since the end of World War II. – Antonia Colibasanu


Sept. 25, 2017 ValueWalk – Why Turkey Can’t Stay Out Of Syria
Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Sept. 25, 2017 The Market Oracle – Here’s Why Turkey Can’t Stay Out Of Syria
Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Sept. 25, 2017 Business Insider – South Korea throws a wrench into the US’s war plans


Sept. 24, 2017 ValueWalk – Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack
The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves. And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles.


Sept. 23, 2017 ValueWalk – Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack
From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. – George Friedman


Sept. 22, 2017 Newsmax – South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans
From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. – George Friedman

Sept. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle – South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans


Sept. 22, 2017 Equities – How Effective is US Missile Defense Against a North Korean Attack
Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. – George Friedman

Sept. 21, 2017 The Market Oracle – Why US Missile Defense Won’t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack
Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. – George Friedman

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Sept. 20, 2017 Business Insider – Here’s why US missile defense probably won’t protect us from a North Korea attack
Ballistic missile defense (BMD) seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time—and some have even intercepted their targets—the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute. – George Friedman

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Sept. 20, 2017 Real Clear World – The Constraints That Define Donald Trump
One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. – George Friedman


Sept. 20, 2017 Huffington Post – The Constraints That Define Donald Trump
One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. – George Friedman

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Sept. 19, 2017 Real Clear World – The U.S. Faces Unsavory Choices in the Korean Peninsula
In its attempt to deal with the threat from Pyongyang, the U.S. is facing another obstacle: South Korea. – George Friedman


Sept. 15, 2017 MacroGeo – In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for control over Cuba
Beyond the obvious shared border, the U.S.-Mexico rivalry is expressed most notably in the Caribbean, particularly in Cuba, where Washington and Mexico City have competing strategic interests. We are currently in a relative lull regarding this bilateral competition in the Caribbean, but in the decades ahead there is potential for it to resume. – Allison Fedirka


Sept. 14, 2017 MacroGeo – In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed
Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada’s founders understood this. – George Friedman

Sept. 14, 2017 CIRSD Horizons Magazine – The Limits of the Trump Doctrine
Observers too readily dismiss what Trump says as naiveté at best, and the ravings of a madman at worst. Too often such characterizations obscure the fact that he has a real and coherent strategic vision. – George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro


Sept. 13, 2017 Huffington Post – In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed
Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada’s founders understood this. – George Friedman

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Sept. 12, 2017 Real Clear World – Hungary Pulls Away From the Kremlin
As tensions between the U.S. and Russia heat up, the concept of the Intermarium alliance among Eastern European states to block Russia’s expansion westward is gaining steam. – Antonia Colibasanu

Sept. 10, 2017 Tygodnik Wprost – American Chess
According to GPF’s Jacob L. Shapiro, U.S. President Trump has little room to maneuver with regards to North Korea.


Sept. 8, 2017 Equities – Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices
It won’t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can’t be ruled out. – George Friedman

Sept. 7, 2017 The Market Oracle – Hurricane Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices
It won’t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can’t be ruled out. – George Friedman

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Sept. 7, 2017 Real Clear World – Revisiting Europe, the Heroic Delusion
The European Union is what political philosopher Leo Strauss might have called a “heroic delusion.” It is a noble dream, a dream that the only thing necessary for peace in Europe is shared prosperity. And for a time, the EU was living the dream. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Sept. 7, 2017 Business Insider – Hurricane Harvey might raise oil prices — but only temporarily
If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline—which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast’s refined product, according to the EIA—US consumers would not only have to pay more at the pump, but US policymakers would have to deal with Russia, which would greatly benefit from even a momentary spike in prices. – George Friedman


Sept. 6, 2017 Fortune – Why Killing Kim Jong-un Won’t Solve Anything
Assassinating North Korean leader Kim Jong-un isn’t the answer. North Korea’s regime is not one man. Cut the head off of this snake and it will reveal itself to be a hydra. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Sept. 6, 2017 Newsmax – Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices
If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline—which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast’s refined product, according to the EIA—US consumers would not only have to pay more at the pump, but US policymakers would have to deal with Russia, which would greatly benefit from even a momentary spike in prices.

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Sept. 4, 2017 Business Insider – The demise of Libor is part of a massive global trend that many overlook

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Sept. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – The Hajj: An Expression of Saudi Power
The hajj is more than a religious pilgrimage; it’s an expression of Saudi power. – Kamran Bokhari


Aug. 31, 2017 The Daily Beast – U.S. Gives Russians More Eviction Notices As Diplomatic Row Escalates
“’I think tensions are high but both sides are trying to control them,’ said Russia watcher Jacob Shapiro, Director of Analysis for Geopolitical Futures. He pointed to a recent positive meeting between Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov and the new U.S special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker.”


Aug. 31, 2017 Newsmax – Libor’s Demise Part of Massive Global Trend That Many Overlook
In July, the Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates Libor, announced that the rate would be phased out over the next four years, ending in 2021. It’s unclear what will replace it, but whatever it is won’t be as easy for bankers to manipulate. – Xander Snyder

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Aug. 31, 2017 Business Insider – More people died from terrorist attacks in the 1970s and 1980s than in any recent decade
The times we live in are not special. Europe has always been familiar with terrorism.

Aug. 30, 2017 interest.co.nz – Xander Snyder looks at the GFC derived loss of public trust in technocrats highlighted by the demise of LIBOR
In July, the Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates Libor, announced that the rate would be phased out over the next four years, ending in 2021. It’s unclear what will replace it, but whatever it is won’t be as easy for bankers to manipulate. – Xander Snyder


Aug. 30, 2017 ValueWalk – Terrorists Killed More People In The 1970s And 1980s Than In Any Recent Decade
The times we live in are not special. Europe has always been familiar with terrorism.

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Aug. 28, 2017 Real Clear World – In North Korea, Perception Is Reality
Jacob L. Shapiro on reaction after the government in Pyongyang test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles.


Aug. 24, 2017 Euractiv – Macron versus Eastern Europe
French president Macron has found a scapegoat in temporary workers from Eastern Europe, making the same mistake as the UK in the lead up to Brexit, writes Antonia Colibasanu.


Aug. 23, 2017 Real Clear Politics – George Friedman: Both North Korea And Trump’s America Are Predictable And “Very Consistent”
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, discusses the new sanctions against North Korea, the U.S.’s strategy for the country and the U.S.’s relationship with Russia. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: Asia.”

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Aug. 22, 2017 Real Clear World – Delaying the Inevitable in Afghanistan
Kamran Bokhari – On Aug. 21, President Donald Trump rolled out yet another U.S. strategy to try to bring closure to the war in Afghanistan. The core of the new strategy is based on the idea that U.S. support for Afghanistan is not unlimited and that Washington should not be engaged in nation-building in the country – even though it is not opting for a rapid withdrawal.

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Aug. 22, 2017 Bloomberg – Geopolitical Futures’ Friedman on N. Korea, Sanctions
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, discusses the new sanctions against North Korea, the U.S.’s strategy for the country and the U.S.’s relationship with Russia. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: Asia.”

Aug. 20, 2017 The Market Oracle – Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Willing to Give Up Its Influence to Iran
Saudi Arabia’s strategy in the Middle East has for years focused on throwing money at majority Sunni states and groups in the region to counter Iranian influence. But its fiscal constraints started to limit its ability to project power even in the Arabian Peninsula. – Xander Snyder

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Aug. 19, 2017 Business Insider – Saudi Arabia’s financial constraints are starting to limit its ability to project power


Aug. 19, 2017 Newsmax – Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Willing to Give Up Its Influence to Iran
Saudi Arabia’s strategy in the Middle East has for years focused on throwing money at majority Sunni states and groups in the region to counter Iranian influence. But its fiscal constraints started to limit its ability to project power even in the Arabian Peninsula. – Xander Snyder


Aug. 19, 2017 The Trumpet – China and India Won’t Start a Big War Over Their Border Dispute
“As Geopolitical Future’s George Friedman put it, ‘The Himalayas separate them almost as much as an ocean would. … Sending and supplying major military forces into and across the Himalayas is almost impossible.'”

Aug. 18, 2017 The Market Oracle – North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan
The US must be open to the possibility that in a war North Korea could knock out Guam and then use the delay to complete (if they don’t have it already) a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the American mainland. – George Friedman


Aug. 18, 2017 Newsmax – North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational … It Has a Plan


Aug. 18, 2017 Equities – North Korea Is Far From Being Irrational… It Has A Plan
George Friedman: If North Korea was an irrational regime, how has this same regime, founded by the current leader’s grandfather, survived since 1948? The regime should have collapsed many times. It didn’t.

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Aug. 18, 2017 Bloomberg – How Spain Will React to the Barcelona Terror Attack
George Friedman: “This is the problem they’ve posed for us: to be true to our values, or to protect ourselves.”

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Aug. 17, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: North Korea is far from being irrational — it actually has a plan
The North Korean regime should have collapsed many times. It didn’t. – George Friedman

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Aug. 17, 2017 Real Clear World – Vulnerability Is the Price of Pakistan’s Independence
Bitter rivalry between India and Pakistan: A geopolitical constant since the end of British colonial rule in 1947. As Kamran Bokhari explains, Pakistan has never been able to shake the feeling of vulnerability from being next to the much larger India.


Aug. 16, 2017 HuffPost – Guadalcanal: The Battle That Sealed the Pacific War
Midway closed the door on any hope of Japanese victory, but Guadalcanal locked it. George Friedman examines two battles that, in retrospect, ended the Pacific War.

Aug. 15, 2017 Le Monde – The third world war will take place in 2050
Authors have tried to anticipate the coming society. In 2009, George Friedman puts forward the challenge of the power of the United States in “The next 100 years: a scenario for the twenty-first century”.

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Aug. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – Slowly But Surely, Japan’s Military Prowess Grows
As GPF Analyst Phillip Orchard explains, though Japanese policy still bans offensive weaponry such as long-range bombers or missiles, many of Japan’s recent procurements are capable of playing more than purely defensive roles.


Aug. 11, 2017 The Sydney Morning Herald – Amid mad rhetoric Donald Trump is ready to talk to North Korea but China must do more
George Friedman: “The North Koreans likely can’t get all of what they can imagine, but given the American fear of North Korean nuclear weapons, the South Korean fear of war, and tensions between China and the US, the Americans would have to consider not only a nuclearised North Korea, but also a North Korea supported by Russia and perhaps China.”


Aug. 10, 2017 Real Clear Defense – North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations
The U.S. isn’t prepared to let itself be vulnerable to the whims of what is seen as a dangerously unpredictable regime in Pyongyang. Therefore, the U.S. is prepared to strike at North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities. – George Friedman


Aug. 10, 2017 MarketWatch – Time is running out to avoid war with North Korea
George Friedman warns that “the ‘mother of all negotiations’ must happen soon”


Aug. 9, 2017 HuffPost – North Korea, Nukes And Negotiations
Having nuclear weapons might invite military counters, but working on nuclear weapons fit with the doctrine of ferocity. North Korea’s weakness made it appear as though it were a futile attempt. Its insanity made it seem like another act of frivolity. Guarded by those principles, the North Koreans could develop a nuclear force. – George Friedman


Aug. 7, 2017 Real Clear Defense – Different Types of Jihadism
Podcast: Xander Snyder and Kamran Bokhari talk about the distinct goals of different jihadist groups and how those differences influence the geopolitics of Middle East.

Aug. 5, 2017 The Market Oracle – Four Maps That Show How Russia Could Strike Back Against US Sanctions
The US Congress has passed new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy companies. Recognizing that a vital sector in its economy has even less chance of relief than it once had, Russia has retaliated. – GPF’s George Friedman, Xander Snyder, and Ekaterina Zolotova

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Aug. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons
On Aug. 2, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. George Friedman examines the reasoning on both sides that led to the use of this weapon.


Aug. 3, 2017 HuffPost – The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons
On Aug. 2, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. George Friedman examines the reasoning on both sides that led to the use of this weapon.

Aug. 3, 2017 The Market Oracle – Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests
EU member states can’t agree on how to approach expanded U.S. sanctions against Moscow. Antonia Colibasanu examines their options and what the sanctions bill could mean for Russia.


July 31, 2017 Real Clear Defense – Are China and India on the Road to War?
Will diplomatic measures in the Himalayas be enough or are China and India on the road to war? – Allison Fedirka

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July 30, 2017 Boston Herald – Vladimir ­Putin looks to flex his political muscle
“’I don’t think that it’s going to stop with just the withdrawal of embassy staff,’ said Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures, who said weak economic conditions can easily fray confidence in Putin’s rule in Russia’s dozens of regions. ‘For Putin, it’s very important, both on a domestic and international level, to appear powerful.’”

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July 26, 2017 Real Clear World – A Different Kind of Reset in Russia
“What this new sanctions bill does, as far as the United States is concerned, is cement [the 2014 sanctions] into place, addressing the most sensitive pressure point in Russia: its energy industry.” – George Friedman


July 26, 2017 The Huffington Post – A Different Kind of Reset in Russia
Whatever the intent of the propaganda and the hacks, the Russians are back where they started. – GPF Chairman George Friedman


July 26, 2017 The Trumpet – America Is Asleep to the Danger of North Korean Nukes
“Geopolitical Futures noted the frequent, though not completely reliable, reports of Iran scientists participating in North Korean missile tests. ‘One particularly damning piece of evidence is that since 2010, North Korea has significantly increased its production of highly enriched uranium,’ the report states.”

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July 25, 2017 Real Clear World – The EU: Authoritarianism Through Complexity
If the EU operating system is too complex to be grasped by British negotiators, then who can grasp it? – George Friedman


July 22, 2017 Bloomberg Politics – Qatar Emir Breaks Silence on Gulf Feud, Is Open to Dialogue
“Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, said the government in Doha didn’t want to appear intransigent. ‘By being flexible, Qatar is trying to make the other side look bad.'”


July 20, 2017 The Epoch Times – The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict
“There are no concrete action items set out in the Chinese government’s action plan for what has become one of Xi’s most visible policy initiatives. The document contains a number of generic proposals interspersed with platitudes about cooperation and understanding,” research firm Geopolitical Futures states in a July report.

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July 20, 2017 Real Clear World – The Trump Presidency, 6 Months In
The most important question at the moment is why the political configuration hasn’t changed and whether Trump can now transform it. This may seem like mere politics – the geopolitical realities of international power remain unchanged – but clearly, a weak U.S. president potentially increases barriers to American power. – George Friedman

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July 19, 2017 Real Clear World – Russia’s Strategy: Built on Illusion


July 19, 2017 The Huffington Post – Russia’s Strategy: Built on Illusion
Russia lives in a complex and dangerous region, and appearing weak can be the biggest threat to its well-being. – GPF Chairman George Friedman


July 17, 2017 MarketWatch – China is playing a weak hand with the U.S.
Diverse interests and regional divides threaten social stability – George Friedman

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July 14, 2017 Real Clear World – In China, a Strategy Born of Weakness


July 13, 2017 Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs – George Friedman: The End of the International Order and the Future of Asia
“I see us returning to a more normal structure in which the nation-state is dominant, international trade is intense but managed by states for their own benefit, and where this idea that the nation-state is obsolete goes away.”
– GPF Chairman George Friedman in a podcast with Devin T. Stewart


July 13, 2017 MarketWatch – Another challenge to Russia in the making
Potentially disruptive new alliances forming in Eastern Europe – George Friedman


July 12, 2017 The Huffington Post – In China, a Strategy Born of Weakness
China’s actions so far in the ongoing North Korean affair have been ambiguous. In order to try to understand China’s strategy toward North Korea, it is necessary to understand China’s strategy in general. To do that, it is important to recognize the imperatives and constraints that drive the country. – George Friedman

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July 12, 2017 Real Clear World – What Really Matters in the Middle East
Recent days have seen welcome developments for the enemies of the Islamic State, but the fight is far from over. Iraq’s sectarian conflict will press on, and jihadists will exploit the conflict as they see fit. – Jacob L. Shapiro


July 10, 2017 Equities – The Geopolitical Advantages That Shale Oil Gives to the US
Energy, particularly oil, is a source of geopolitical power. Every country needs it, but only some countries have the resources to procure it themselves. – George Friedman

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July 10, 2017 Boston Herald – Donald Trump Jr.: Kremlin-linked woman claimed DNC dirt
Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy and an analyst with Geopolitical Futures, said Trump’s tweets show he’s adopting a long-postulated strategy of forgiving Russian incursions in Crimea to set in motion crippling Russian-backed blows against ISIS in Syria. Bokhari said Russia can serve as a public ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

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July 10, 2017 Bloomberg Politics – Tillerson Aims to Solve Qatar Crisis
Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, discusses U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson meeting with Gulf leaders as the U.S. seeks to help end the standoff between Qatar and a Saudi-led bloc of nations.


July 7, 2017 The Sydney Morning Herald – Big dogs’ bite at G20 in Hamburg likely to be muzzled by the weight of history
“the leaders … think of themselves as decision-makers, when really they are hostages to history. In fact, the dynamics … are indifferent to the people who attend. Personalities are interesting but ultimately indecisive in power politics”. – George Friedman


July 6, 2017 The Huffington Post – A Different Ever Closer Union
The U.S. and Poland have shared interests, particularly when it comes to Russia. But while their approach to Moscow brought these two countries closer together, it also pushed them further away from Germany. – George Friedman

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July 5, 2017 Real Clear World – Hostages to History at the G-20
Those who attend the G-20 Summit, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history. – George Friedman


July 5, 2017 Fox News – Tucker Carlson Tonight – What are US options against North Korea?
With North Korea successfully launching an ICBM, potential strategies have changed. So what are the rogue regime’s possible motive and what can the US do? George Friedman shares his insights.

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July 4, 2017 Bloomberg Politics – The Geopolitical Implications of N. Korea’s Missile Test
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures founder and chairman, discusses North Korea’s claim that it successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile.


July 4, 2017 Polskie Radio – Europa Wschodnia może stać się sercem Europy
George Friedman, założyciel i prezes ośrodka Geopolitical Futures, o znaczeniu wizyty Donalnda Trumpa w Polsce

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July 2, 2017 Business Insider – 5 maps that explain the new Middle East
Transnational issues like religion and ethnicity often get in the way of the notion of nationalism. Those can’t be contained by a country’s borders. – George Friedman and Kamran Bokhari for Mauldin Economics


July 2, 2017 Daily Times – India’s Modi visits Trump
Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures, explained although, “a proposal to cut funding is usually designed to prepare the ground to negotiate from a position of strength.”

June 30, 2017 The Market Oracle – 5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East
Transnational issues like religion and ethnicity often get in the way of the notion of nationalism. Those can’t be contained by a country’s borders. – George Friedman and Kamran Bokhari for Mauldin Economics

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June 28, 2017 Real Clear World – Japanese Exceptionalism
Japan has a remarkable ability to transform itself without social upheaval. But as George Friedman explains, it has not always been this way.

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June 26, 2017 Boston Herald – Israel pushes back at Syrian war spillover
Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy and analyst with Geopolitical Futures, said Israel can’t appear weak-willed in the face of fighting at its borders, but also has to guard against pushing too hard and helping rebels topple Assad.

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June 26, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: High tech is born in war — not Silicon Valley
What is called “high tech” is often an older innovation updated for modern use. It’s evolutionary, but it isn’t revolutionary. – George Friedman

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June 25, 2017 Real Clear World – Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia
Cooperation among Southeast Asian states has never come easy, but the surge of Islamist militancy in the region is encouraging Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to give it another try. – GPF Analyst Phillip Orchard

June 24, 2017 The Market Oracle – High Tech Is Born In War, Not Silicon Valley
George Friedman: Roman engineering helped shape the Mediterranean world. British technology created and sustained the industrial revolution. These empires could absorb the cost of innovation because they had the money to do so. They also knew it would only reinforce their power. And because technologies are meant to reinforce power, even the most benign were invented for military purposes.


June 21, 2017 Newsmax Finance – Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge
The US has benefited from the shale revolution more than any other country, writes George Friedman.

June 21, 2017 The Market Oracle – This Chart Proves That Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge


June 20, 2017 Newsmax Finance – EU’s Recent Plans to Regulate London’s Financial Sector Are Overblown
A major concern after Brexit was that it will destroy the financial sector in the UK and and the EU since London is a financial hub. Both the UK and the EU do not want to see a massive shake-up in the sector. – Antonia Colibasanu

June 20, 2017 The Market Oracle – North Korea: Is War the Inevitable Outcome?
In his keynote speech at the Strategic Investment Conference, Friedman shocked the crowd when he said, “I’m usually the guy to tell you about the next decade, but today I’m going to tell you about next week. It has become apparent that the US is preparing to attack North Korea.”

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June 19, 2017 Real Clear World – Negotiating With North Korea
The U.S. negotiating strategy, thus far, is working, explains George Friedman.

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June 18, 2017 Boston Herald – Attack shows Mali as jihadi breeding ground
Kamran Bokhari: People go underground, and then they wait for an opportunity, when the coast is clear, or at least they perceive it to be clear.


June 16, 2017 Newsmax Finance – 4 Charts Explain Why US Rules Oil Prices, Not OPEC
There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices. That’s good news for consumers, but a dire trend for major oil producers, explain George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro.


June 14, 2017 The Huffington Post – A Coalition Of The Less-Than-Willing
The U.S. convinced Arab governments to work together against jihadism. Now it needs to focus them, writes George Friedman.

June 13, 2017 Sputnik – Fridman: Čujte Srbi, bežite od EU i moćnih sila, za vas je najbolja izolacija
George Friedman, founder of Stratfor and chairman of the publication “Geopolitical Futures”, was a guest of the Center for International Cooperation and Sustainable Development in Belgrade, where he participated in the Horajzons debut “Winds of Change”. It was an opportunity for an interview with one of the most famous American analysts of international relations.

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June 12, 2017 Real Clear World – Paying the Price of Statehood
Simply saying you want to be free, historically, has never been enough. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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June 11, 2017 Boston Herald – U.S.-backed forces put more heat on ISIS site
Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy and analyst with Geopolitical Futures, said ISIS is poised to recover quickly if a leader is killed.

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June 11, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: Here’s why the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement makes sense
70 years ago, US Secretary of State George Marshall gave a speech at Harvard University. Few speeches in modern times have had as much geopolitical consequence.


June 8, 2017 MarketWatch – North Korea may be the biggest black swan of all
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, recently warned that the U.S.’s big military buildup off the Korean peninsula — including two aircraft carriers and daily exercises by more than 100 F-16 aircraft (which also preceded Operation Desert Storm in 1991) — means a U.S. attack on North Korea is imminent.


June 7, 2017 The Huffington Post – Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War
Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in, writes George Friedman.

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June 6, 2017 Business Insider – A closer look at North Korea’s artillery capabilities
No one really knows the true status of Pyongyang’s nuclear program, but a nuclear strike on a US asset or ally is unlikely because it would force the US to respond in kind, wiping out the North Korean regime.

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June 6, 2017 Real Clear World – Why Diplomacy Is Unlikely to Solve the Korean Crisis
George Friedman: The U.S. is hoping for a diplomatic solution but isn’t counting on one.


June 6, 2017 Euractiv – Qatar: a testament of Saudi weakness
The recent diplomatic row proves that Riyadh is struggling to maintain Arab unity, writes Kamran Bokhari.

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June 3, 2017 Real Clear World – Ramadan: A Holy and Violent Month
Ramadan, which began on May 26, is Islam’s holiest month of the year, a time to do good deeds, fast and pray. But jihadists have coopted this holiday for nefarious ends, using it as an excuse to intensify their attacks, claiming that they are committing the ultimate sacrifice for their faith. This is why Ramadan, in addition to its religious importance, is also geopolitical. – Kamran Bokhari

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June 1, 2017 Real Clear World – Managing Expectations For NAFTA
A few months isn’t enough time for a serious renegotiation of a major trade deal., explains Allison Fedirka.


June 1, 2017 Real Clear Defense – U.S. Strategy of Annihilation and Humiliation
The U.S. will now fight a war of annihilation and humiliation against the enemy, which is not just IS but radical Islamism in general. Mattis expects the war to be a long fight, but he also expects to win. – Jacob L. Shapiro


May 31, 2017 The Huffington Post – Different Visions For Europe
George Friedman: The U.S. vision to contain Russia through NATO is inadvertently pulling Europe apart.

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May 31, 2017 Real Clear World – Why Russia Can’t End the North Korea Crisis
The Kremlin is attempting to appear more influential than it actually is, explains Xander Snyder.


May 31, 2017 Real Clear Defense – NATO’s Diminishing Military Function
NATO heads of state met to inaugurate the alliance’s new headquarters in Brussels on May 25, and the two main topics of conversation were defense spending and the alliance’s role in fighting terrorism. Both issues indicate that NATO is increasing its political role while diminishing its military function. – Antonia Colibasanu

May 26, 2017 VERSLO ŽINIOS – George’as Friedmanas: ateitis niekada nebūna tokia, kokios tikimės

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May 26, 2017 Equities – Is the US Preparing to Attack North Korea?
On Monday, George Friedman, global-intelligence expert and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, dropped a bombshell: “I’m usually the guy to tell you about the next decade, but today I’m going to tell you about the next week. It has become apparent that the US is preparing to attack North Korea.”


May 25, 2017 Foreign Policy – The Islamic World Has a Blasphemy Problem
“As far back as the 1750s, the Saudi polity really was based on religion and specifically Wahhabism [the puritanical, literalist strain of Islam founded in 18th-century Arabia],” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures.

May 25, 2017 The Trumpet – South Korea Fires Shots at Suspected North Korean Drone
“Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman said on Tuesday that the U.S. is now preparing for an imminent attack on North Korea.”


May 25, 2017 Pacific News Center – Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman says U.S. attack on North Korea is imminent
Friedman claims U.S. officials will be briefing Guam on civil defense, terrorism, and Korea on May 31st.


May 24, 2017 The Huffington Post – The World That World War II Built
George Friedman: A handful of battles from 1942 to 1943 redefined the global order as we knew it.

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May 24, 2017 Euractiv – No bluffing: US preparing to attack North Korea
The United States is advertising its preparations for war. North Korea assumes an attack is inevitable, writes George Friedman.

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May 23, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: A US attack on North Korea is imminent
The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman — setting the stage for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic consequences.

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May 22, 2017 Real Clear World – Guarding the Guards at the CIA
A recent New York Times report reveals massive intelligence failure of U.S. espionage network in China. – George Friedman

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May 19, 2017 Equities – Here’s The Truth About Russia’s OPEC Cuts


May 18, 2017 Real Clear Defense – The Dispensability of Allies

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May 18, 2017 Business Insider – Here’s the truth about Russia’s OPEC cuts
George Friedman — In December 2016, Russia joined OPEC in a pledge to cut oil production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day. Things may not be as they seem.


May 17, 2017 The Huffington Post – The Dispensability Of Allies
George Friedman on the dispensability of allies, following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the White House.

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May 17, 2017 Real Clear World – The Future of the Venezuelan Crisis
Geopolitical Futures’ Senior Analyst Allison Fedirka: The Venezuelan government’s options for surviving this year are dwindling.

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May 16, 2017 Bloomberg Daybreak – Interesting Who Leaked Trump Intel Story, Friedman Says
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, discusses reports President Trump shared highly classified information with Russia’s foreign minister and ambassador.

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May 15, 2017 Bloomberg Markets – Geopolitical Futures’ Shapiro Is Skeptical on Belt & Road
Geopolitical Futures Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro weighs in on China’s Belt and Road initiative.


May 10, 2017 The Huffington Post – North Korea Crisis: Neither Gone Nor Forgotten
George Friedman on the North Korea crisis: While the major media outlets have drastically lost interest in it, in truth, the situation is the same as it was while the headlines were filled with foreboding.

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May 10, 2017 Real Clear World – The Best-Laid Plans of Saudi Arabia and Russia
Gone are the days when Riyadh could dictate oil prices by itself. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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May 7, 2017 Business Insider – Afghanistan is the new Vietnam
Geopolitical Futures’ Kamran Bokhari and George Friedman on why the US won’t continue to support a failing Afghanistan.

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May 5, 2017 Real Clear World – The Philippines in Play
Regardless of Duterte and his varying moods, the Philippines has emerged as a critical country – perhaps the most critical for the balance of power in the Pacific. – George Friedman

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May 4, 2017 Real Clear World – For U.S., Shared Interests Trump Moral Purity
Jacob L. Shapiro on why Donald Trump is not crazy for wanting to meet with Kim Jong Un or Rodrigo Duterte.


May 3, 2017 The Huffington Post – The Limits Of Expertise
“Without challenging their expertise – which is self-evident in most cases – the question is whether expertise in a field is a basis for trusting the expert with important things like foreign policy and air conditioning,” says George Friedman.

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May 2, 2017 Market Watch – Next recession will hit during Trump’s first two years
When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches cold. George Friedman on why a US recession is coming during Trump’s first two years, and how it will impact the rest of the world.

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May 1, 2017 Business Insider – Venezuela is nearing its end game
“We are reaching a point where civil unrest is going to be a very determining factor in the future course of Venezuela as opposed to elections.” – Sen. Analyst Allison Fedirka

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April 28, 2017 Euractiv – Russia opens the door to cryptocurrencies
The benefits of blockchain are attractive to Russia’s financial system, writes Antonia Colibasanu.


April 27, 2017 ValueWalk – The Left Has Lost Its Vision
George Friedman writing for Mauldin Economics: French voters headed to the polls on Sunday in the first round of France’s presidential election. With the rise of National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, the election raises the question of what is happening to the “left.” What does it even mean to be on the left?

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April 27, 2017 Equities – Why Trump Reversed His Stance On NATO, China, and Mexico
Allison Fedirka: Donald Trump has recently reversed his stance on a number of key foreign policy issues: NATO, Russia, China, and Mexico. From a geopolitical perspective, Trump’s remarks validated that limitations exist in the real world-even for the US president.

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April 26, 2017 Equities – Understanding the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons
“It is true that many fear the irrational North Korean leadership. But Geopolitical Futures’ current view of the regime is that it has existed for decades because it is able to make cautious calculations and has continued to choose not to inflict destruction on itself.” – George Friedman


April 26, 2017 FOX News – What a war with North Korea would look like
George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, told Tucker Carlson recently that given those heavily-fortified and strategically placed artillery units, “if they open fire on [Seoul,] there is going to be a holocaust.”


April 24, 2017 ValueWalk – Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World
George Friedman: what a president wants and what he must do are two different things.

April 24, 2017 North Africa Post – Morocco has lowest presence of Salafism in MENA region, Geopolitical Futures says

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April 24, 2017 Real Clear World – The Future of U.S.-China Relations Depends on North Korea
“Donald Trump’s election has not heralded a new phase in U.S.-China relations,” writes Dir. of Analysis Jacob L. Shapiro.

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April 22, 2017 Business Insider – The North Korea situation is approaching its ‘witching hour’
Geopolitical Futures founder and Chairman Dr. George Friedman says Donald Trump is going to have to make the tough call on which course of action to take with North Korea. “We’re approaching the witching hour where the president of the United States has to make a decision.”


April 20, 2017 Tucker Carlson Tonight – FOX News – What a war with North Korea would look like
Interview with George Friedman: Amid rising tension between the US and North Korea, one expert outlines the strategic games both sides are playing and the terrifying scenarios of a war with the rogue nation.

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April 19, 2017 The Huffington Post – How A War With North Korea Would Play Out
“No options, apart from de-escalation, are attractive,” says George Friedman.

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April 18, 2017 Business Insider – 3 maps that explain North Korea’s strategy
George Friedman for Mauldin Economics: “To understand North Korean strategy today, we must first understand the implications of its geography.”

April 18, 2017 Polska Agencja Prasowa – Friedman: Rosją rządzą oligarchowie i FSB; kto zastąpi Putina, nie będzie miało znaczenia
Interview with George Friedman: Political unrest in Russia is leading to social unrest.

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April 18, 2017 Business Insider – There are 2 choke points that threaten oil trade between the Persian Gulf and East Asia
George Friedman and Cheyenne Ligon for Mauldin Economics: “For both Persian Gulf exporters and East Asian consumers, the free passage of oil shipments is essential. However, these shipments must pass through two geopolitical choke points.”


April 18, 2017 Radio Poland – Oligarchs and Federal Security Service run Russia: senior analyst
Oligarchs and the Federal Security Service (FSB) run Russia, and the identity of Putin’s eventual successor is not a key issue, George Friedman, the founder of the Geopolitical Futures think-tank, has said.

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April 18, 2017 Business Insider – The state of global nuclear weapons today, and why North Korean tests would be suicidal
Recent developments in North Korea have placed a spotlight on nuclear weapons – George Friedman, Xander Snyder, and Cheyenne Ligon for Mauldin Economics

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April 17, 2017 Real Clear World – Turkey, Secularism, and Religion
George_Friedman: On a deeper level, the Turkey referendum was about secularism and religion


April 17, 2017 TRT World – Analysts see strong Turkey as “yes” ballot prevails
“The referendum will certainly make Erdogan a more powerful president, or whoever occupies that office more powerful. It doesn’t mean that democracy is going away,” said Jacob Shapiro, the director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures.

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April 16, 2017 Boston Herald – Report: U.S. mulls strike on North Korea
North Koreans don’t want to lose their nuclear facilities, says George Friedman.

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April 13, 2017 Real Clear World – Russia’s Catch-22 in Belarus
Russia can trigger the collapse of the Belarusian economy simply by limiting oil and gas supplies or withholding the next bailout tranche for a few more months. – Antonia Colibasanu

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April 12, 2017 The Huffington Post – The United States, Syria and Russia
George Friedman: The American attack on a Syrian air base raises important questions about Middle East strategy.

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April 11, 2017 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: Smaller U.S. Companies Are Fine, JPMorgan’s Michele Says
George Friedman says North Korea appears to be close to having nuclear weapons.

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April 11, 2017 Euractiv – What a US president wants and what he must do are two different things
Donald Trump may want the United States to be less involved in the world but the reality is that the US is deeply involved, writes George Friedman.

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April 10, 2017 Equities – Here’s the UK’s Leverage Against the EU
“Almost a year has passed since 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU. But the process for separation has now been initiated. The next issue is how to understand what will happen during the two years of UK-EU negotiations that lie ahead.” – Jacob Shapiro

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April 10, 2017 Real Clear World – Irresistible Constraints
George Friedman on Trump’s fascinating week, which included dinner with China’s president, authorizing a strike on a Syrian air base, and ordering a carrier battle group toward North Korea.

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April 6, 2017 Real Clear World – A Shift Is Emerging in Eastern Europe
A shift is emerging in Eastern Europe, says George Friedman following visits in Warsaw and Budapest.

April 5, 2017 interest.nz.co – George Friedman & Jacob Shapiro preview the Trump-Xi meeting noting China is in no position to play hardball and the US can’t simply do whatever it wants

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April 5, 2017 The Huffington Post – Journey’s End: Warsaw and Budapest
A shift is emerging in Eastern Europe, says George Friedman following visits in Warsaw and Budapest.

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April 4, 2017 Real Clear World – Venezuela’s Breaking Point
The recent Supreme Court controversy reveals Maduro’s growing weakness and declining power. It was either an attempt to grab power or a PR stunt. If it was a move to consolidate power, Maduro failed. – Allison Fedirka

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March 31, 2017 Equities – Does China Matter More to the US Than Its NATO Allies?
“The fact that Xi will go to the US—and especially that he reportedly will go to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida—is one of those minor symbolic victories for Trump. It also indicates that, having agreed to this visit, Xi will be much tougher on substance. To put it in American terms, this is a major league meeting.” – George Friedman

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March 29, 2017 Real Clear World – The Russian Opposition’s Coming Out
Widespread unrest suggests that control by the regime in Moscow is becoming more tenuous, explains Allison Fedirka.

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March 29, 2017 The Huffington Post – Decision-Making and Reality of the Presidency
Trump is merely the president of the United States, and the president is not particularly powerful. What he wants to do is far less important than what he can do, writes George Friedman.

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March 28, 2017 Real Clear World – The Myth of Putin Starts to Crumble

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March 22, 2017 The Huffington Post – Notes From Europe’s Periphery
The European Union tried to envelop the periphery and the core into one structure. In theory, it was to be a union of equals, but increasingly it has become a periphery rotating around a core, writes George Friedman.

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March 22, 2017 Equities – Why China’s Miraculous Economic Growth Has Come to an End…
“Sustained double-digit economic growth is only possible when you begin with a wrecked economy.” – George Friedman


March 21, 2017 The Trumpet – Trump Administration Attacks Free Trade at G-20 Meeting
As George Friedman wrote: The U.S. indicated that it would not sign the G-20 agreement if it contained wording on free trade. While there is much discussion on U.S. decline, the country still produces about 25 percent of the world’s gdp [gross domestic product], which is a huge amount. Therefore, any document on global economics that does not contain an American signature is irrelevant.


March 20, 2017 TRT World – The future of a Caspian gas rig swings between the EU and Russia
“Gazprom could, in theory, offer large volumes of below-cost natural gas into the transit infrastructure crossing Turkey and Greece just to block Azeri gas and any other gas from accessing the European market,” said Antonia Colibasanu.

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March 20, 2017 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: Virginia’s McAuliffe Criticizes Trump’s First Month
George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, on President Trump’s first 100 days in office: He ran on a program of overthrowing the norms of Washington. He has.

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March 17, 2017 Real Clear World – The Dutch Elections and the Looming Crisis
Recent elections should be a mark of how greatly the Netherlands – and Euro-American civilization – has changed, and an indication that this change is not temporary. – George Friedman

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March 16, 2017 Real Clear World – The Deep State

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March 15, 2017 The Huffington Post – The Deep State Is A Very Real Thing
This entity is called the civil service, and it was created to limit the power of the president, writes George Friedman.

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March 13, 2017 Boston Herald – U.S. military weighs options
The U.S. ramp-up is a test to determine if ISIS stands its ground. – George Friedman

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March 10, 2017 Market Watch – China’s economic miracle is over
Export-driven economy isn’t as strong as government claims – George Friedman

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March 9, 2017 Real Clear World – A Busy Day in Geopolitics
Kamran Bokhari: There will be many days that are, geopolitically speaking, rather quiet. Yesterday was not one of them.

March 9, 2017 Emerging Europe – THE STALLED CONFLICT IN UKRAINE WILL BE FORMALISED
Both sides — the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists — accuse each other of starting the most recent fighting. To understand why this is happening now, it is first necessary to understand what is happening and then to take a step back and to understand the strategic position of each of the major players, writes Antonia Colibasanu.

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March 7, 2017 Real Clear World – China’s Economy Continues to Decline
Sustained double-digit economic growth is possible when you begin with a wrecked economy. But China’s economic miracle, like that of Japan before it, is over. – George Friedman

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March 6, 2017 The Huffington Post – Here’s why nations go to war over water
“Access to and control over water is a strategic imperative for all countries. As such, it has been a source of conflict throughout history.” – George Friedman and Allison Fedirka, for Mauldin Economics

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March 5, 2017 Real Clear World – The U.S., Turkey, and the Kurds
Washington and Ankara appear to be reaching a resolution on their long-standing conflict over the Syrian Kurds. – Eric Czuleger

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March 1, 2017 Real Clear World – Nationalism and Liberal Democracy
George Friedman explains how nationalism – however distorted it might become – is the root of liberal democracy, not only historically, but also morally. The two concepts are intellectually inseparable.

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Feb. 28, 2017 The Huffington Post – The War Between the President and the Press
A war has broken out between the president and the press, writes George Friedman.

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Feb. 28, 2017 Real Clear World – A Significant Iranian Military Exercise
“The main adversary that Iran is planning for in these exercises is not the United States, nor is it Iraq. It is Saudi Arabia.” – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Feb. 26, 2016 Forbes – 3 Changes NATO Must Make To Remain A True Alliance

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Feb. 24, 2016 Forbes – 4 Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia
George Friedman: Geopolitical Futures forecasted that 2017 will be “an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia.”

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Feb. 24, 2017 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: Virginia’s McAuliffe Criticizes Trump’s First Month
Radio Interview: George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, says Trump is playing cleanup on immigration enforcement from Presidents Obama, Bush and Clinton.

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Feb. 23, 2017 Euractiv – NATO, the Middle East and Eastern Europe
George Friedman examines the real issues facing NATO, following the Munich Security Conference.

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Feb. 22, 2017 Real Clear World – NATO, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe
George Friedman examines the real issues facing NATO, following the Munich Security Conference.

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Feb. 21, 2017 The Huffington Post – Turkey and the United States Groping to Accommodation
Despite past differences, Turkey and the U.S. are getting closer, writes George Friedman.


Feb. 20, 2017 The Trumpet – Germany’s Identity Crisis Leading to the Rise of the Far Right
“‘In Berlin at least, the German political system has shattered,’ observed George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures following the Berlin election.”

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Feb. 17, 2017 Market Watch – Putin may be watching his brilliant American plan go ‘poof’
“If the Russians were doing anything, they were jerking the American chain with the hope of creating a domestic crisis, something which the Americans excel at.” – George Friedman turns from Michael Flynn to the Russians

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Feb. 15, 2017 CNBC – Trump has kept a lot of his campaign promises, but not one very big one
“‘…either Trump can’t label China a currency manipulator, or doesn’t want to,’ said Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures…”

Feb. 15, 2017 The Market Oracle – Iran’s Strengthening Economy Is A Threat To The US—Not Nukes
Senior Analyst Kamran Bokhari, writing for Mauldin Economics.

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Feb. 14, 2017 The Huffington Post – US Strategies in the Middle East
George Friedman on new sanctions and President Donald Trump’s plans to crush IS

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Feb. 14, 2017 Saudi Gazette – Unprecedented levels of opportunities, risks
“Delivering his address themed ‘The Next 100 Years: Exploring Scenarios for Government’ on Day 2 of the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai, Dr Friedman said that the events of 2008 leading to the financial crisis of Europe and the Russian attack on Georgia started the end of the current era.”

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Feb. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – The Flynn Drama
George Friedman on Michael Flynn’s – “we still do not have clarity over precisely what happened.”

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Feb. 14, 2017 Newstalk – Japan’s precarious comeback trail
“Far more positive in the long term is Geopolitical Futures, which predicted this month that Japan will emerge as East Asia’s economic superpower over the next quarter of a century, leading China by 2040.”

Feb. 13, 2017 Sky News Arabia – Dialogue with the author of The Next 100 Years
Interview with George Friedman at the 2017 World Government Summit.

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Feb. 13, 2017 Equities – Can Japan Become More Powerful Than China?
“By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.” – George Friedman

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Feb. 13, 2017 World Government Summit – International relations to change as countries are forced to look inward
“The nature of world relations was bound to go into reverse, as technocratic multi-lateral institutions have started failing at solving the world’s problems, according to Dr George Friedman, geopolitical forecaster, who was speaking during Day Two of the World Government Summit 2017.”

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Feb. 10, 2017 Value Walk – Tension Between Italy, Germany, And The EU Is Growing
“Understanding how you gain power is key to assessing if change is possible” – Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu, writing for Mauldin Economics.

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Feb. 9, 2017 Business Insider – Things are starting to unravel in Europe
Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu, writing for Mauldin Economics.

Feb. 9, 2016 Economic Forum – Ukraine, Russia and Recent Fighting
What do flare-ups in eastern Ukraine tell us about the conflict? Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu takes a step back to understand the strategic position of each of the major players.

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Feb. 9, 2017 Real Clear World – Trump’s Conventional Foreign Policy
“Hostile phones calls and threatening tweets do not a foreign policy make, so the strange call to the Australian prime minister probably doesn’t indicate policy change.” – George Friedman writes on what many have overlooked

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Feb. 8, 2016 Forbes – The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan — Not China
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures: Comparing Japan’s & China’s economies reveals how Japan will emerge as dominant power.

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Feb. 7, 2017 The Huffington Post – Immigration Chaos
“As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk.” – George Friedman

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Feb. 3, 2017 Real Clear World – The Importance of Australia to the United States
Personalities aside, Australia and the United States need each other. Director of Analysis Jacob L. Shapiro dispels fake news and gets down to the deeper geopolitical context of this relationship.

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Feb. 2, 2017 Real Clear World – Poland Takes On Russia
“For Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue, with its national strategy pivoting around a single goal: preserving national identity and independence,” writes Antonia Colibasanu.

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Feb. 1, 2017 Euractiv – Kazakhstan changing to secure continuity
“Kazakhstan and the wider region of Central Asia are at the cusp of significant change, albeit largely unrecognized by the rest of the world,” explains Senior Analyst Kamran Bokhari.

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Feb. 1, 2017 The Huffington Post – The Utility of Torture
Is torture really an effective tool? George Friedman explains that the answer is not so simple, but in many cases, there are better ways to get intelligence.

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Jan. 30, 2017 BNN – Mosque shootings signals arrival of extreme-right in Canada: Geopolitical analyst
The Quebec City mosque shooting signals arrival of extreme-right in Canada: Geopolitical Futures Senior Analyst Kamran Bokhari

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Jan. 28, 2017 The New York Times – The Questions That Could Reshape a Worried Europe in 2017
“’The current developments do not bode well and point to the possibility of repeating the Greece disaster on a much larger scale,’ Geopolitical Futures, a forecasting firm, said…”

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Jan. 27, 2017 CNBC – China will likely withstand the shock of a trade war better than the US will
“‘If there is a full-fledged trade war, China is going to get hurt disproportionately to the U.S.,’ said Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures…”

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Jan. 24, 2017 Real Clear World – These 4 Maps Show the Geopolitical Hotspots of 2017
George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro, writing for Mauldin Economics

Jan. 24, 2017 interest.co.nz – George Friedman points out new US President Donald Trump faces a battle to implement his agenda due to his low approval ratings & the potential use of filibusters
George Friedman: Presidents don’t stop promising, but the promises become more hollow over time if they are not matched by some degree of achievement.

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Jan. 24, 2017 The Huffington Post – NATO and the United States
George Friedman: Many in the United States have raised questions about Europe’s commitment to NATO and to its relationship with the U.S. Many Europeans also have made the observation that the EU is failing. What Trump has done is simply bring into the open the question of Europe’s relationship with the U.S.

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Jan. 23, 2017 Real Clear World – Something’s Got to Give in Venezuela
The government will reach a breaking point this year, writes Senior Analyst Allison Fedirka.

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Jan. 20, 2017 Real Clear World – Donald Trump Has a Coherent, Radical Foreign Policy Doctrine
George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, in a special RCW series on America’s role in the world during the Trump administration.

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Jan. 19, 2017 Newsmax – The US Is Headed to a Pivotal Socio-Economic Crisis
“About ten years before a crisis, new socio-economic problems emerge. Trump’s election does not mean a crisis. But it does foresee the arrival of one in the 2020s,” explain George Friedman and Allison Fedirka.

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Jan. 18, 2017 BNN – Rising nationalism expected to drive international system in 2017
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, tells BNN why he thinks rising nationalism is a byproduct of the 2008 financial crisis and how it will characterize the international system in 2017.

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Jan. 17, 2017 The Huffington Post – Why The Russians Likely Have No Control Over Donald Trump
“The idea that Russian intelligence might have information with which to blackmail the American president has to be examined with care,” writes George Friedman.

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Jan. 16, 2017 Business Insider – Italy will be the next big problem in Europe
Cheyenne Ligon and Allison Fedirka, writing for Mauldin Economics.

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Jan. 16, 2017 Market Watch – Unrest could grip Germany in 2017 and U.S. investors could suffer fallout
George Friedman on how weaker German exports will hurt Europe and emerging markets.

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Jan. 13, 2017 Real Clear World – Will AI Solve the Global Demographic Problem?
Antonia Colibasanu: Advanced industrialized countries have declining populations and need a way to maintain productivity.

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Jan. 13, 2017 Value Walk – Italy, Germany, And The EU Are On The Brink Of A Conflict
Cheyenne Ligon and Allison Fedirka, writing for Mauldin Economics.

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Jan. 11, 2017 Euractiv – Thinking about propaganda
Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead, writes Jacob L. Shapiro.

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Jan. 11, 2017 Newsmax – Italy, Germany, And The EU Are On The Brink Of A Conflict
Cheyenne Ligon and Allison Fedirka, writing for Mauldin Economics.

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Jan. 10, 2017 The Huffington Post – The CIA, Russia and the American Election
George Friedman: The release of the CIA report may raise more questions than it answers.

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Jan. 10, 2017 Equities – This is Europe’s Core Problem
“The European Union’s founders envisioned an ‘ever-closer union’ that gradually eliminated national distinctions. It didn’t happen, and geopolitical expert George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures says the opposite is now taking shape. ‘Europe’ doesn’t really exist in any meaningful way.”

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Jan. 9, 2017 Real Clear World – The CIA, Russia and the American Election
George Friedman: The release of the CIA report may raise more questions than it answers.

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Jan. 5, 2017 Business Insider – The days of the European Union are already over
Geopolitical expert George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures says “Europe” doesn’t really exist in any meaningful way.

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Jan. 4, 2017 The Huffington Post – Thinking About a U.S.-China War
George Friedman: A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

Jan. 4, 2017 The Market Oracle – Here’s the Real Oil Price Russia Needs to Break Even
Jacob Shapiro: We published our 2017 forecast earlier this week. One of our predictions is that Russia is in for a difficult year economically. This is because Russia’s economy depends significantly on oil.

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Jan. 4, 2017 Newsmax – Low Oil Prices Will Make Russia More Aggressive in 2017
“The Russian people are starting to feel the effects of prolonged low oil prices,” writes George Friedman.

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Jan. 3, 2017 CNBC – ‘Pax Americana’ is over, and that could mean a much more turbulent world: Ian Bremmer
George Friedman, chairman of the online publication Geopolitical Futures, sees the need for change to a U.S.-led global framework, and more discriminate pursuit of trade policies.

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Jan. 3, 2017 Real Clear World – Thinking About a U.S.-China War

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Jan. 3, 2017 Market Watch – Russia isn’t as strong as Putin would have you believe
George Friedman on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union: Russia must be led by a magician who can make small things appear large. It isn’t a place for a man of deep beliefs.

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Jan. 2, 2017 Epoch Times – How the US Could Win a Trade War With China
“According to a report by research firm Geopolitical Futures (GPF), the United States would suffer some damage in a trade war, but would come out on top in the end.
‘China would feel the impact of U.S. protectionist measures more than the U.S. would feel any economic retaliation China has at its disposal,’ the report states.”

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Jan. 2, 2017 Yeni Şafak – Turkey will become a superpower: George Friedman
“Geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs predicts that Turkey will soon emerge as a superpower”

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