Geopolitical Futures in the Press

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Aug. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – Slowly But Surely, Japan’s Military Prowess Grows
As GPF Analyst Phillip Orchard explains, though Japanese policy still bans offensive weaponry such as long-range bombers or missiles, many of Japan’s recent procurements are capable of playing more than purely defensive roles.

Aug. 11, 2017 The Sydney Morning Herald – Amid mad rhetoric Donald Trump is ready to talk to North Korea but China must do more
George Friedman: “The North Koreans likely can’t get all of what they can imagine, but given the American fear of North Korean nuclear weapons, the South Korean fear of war, and tensions between China and the US, the Americans would have to consider not only a nuclearised North Korea, but also a North Korea supported by Russia and perhaps China.”

Aug. 10, 2017 Real Clear Defense – North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations
The U.S. isn’t prepared to let itself be vulnerable to the whims of what is seen as a dangerously unpredictable regime in Pyongyang. Therefore, the U.S. is prepared to strike at North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities. – George Friedman

Aug. 10, 2017 MarketWatch – Time is running out to avoid war with North Korea
George Friedman warns that “the ‘mother of all negotiations’ must happen soon”

Aug. 9, 2017 HuffPost – North Korea, Nukes And Negotiations
Having nuclear weapons might invite military counters, but working on nuclear weapons fit with the doctrine of ferocity. North Korea’s weakness made it appear as though it were a futile attempt. Its insanity made it seem like another act of frivolity. Guarded by those principles, the North Koreans could develop a nuclear force. – George Friedman

Aug. 7, 2017 Real Clear Defense – Different Types of Jihadism
Podcast: Xander Snyder and Kamran Bokhari talk about the distinct goals of different jihadist groups and how those differences influence the geopolitics of Middle East.

Aug. 5, 2017 The Market Oracle – Four Maps That Show How Russia Could Strike Back Against US Sanctions
The US Congress has passed new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy companies. Recognizing that a vital sector in its economy has even less chance of relief than it once had, Russia has retaliated. – GPF’s George Friedman, Xander Snyder, and Ekaterina Zolotova

Aug. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons
On Aug. 2, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. George Friedman examines the reasoning on both sides that led to the use of this weapon.

Aug. 3, 2017 HuffPost – The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons
On Aug. 2, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. George Friedman examines the reasoning on both sides that led to the use of this weapon.

Aug. 3, 2017 The Market Oracle – Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests
EU member states can’t agree on how to approach expanded U.S. sanctions against Moscow. Antonia Colibasanu examines their options and what the sanctions bill could mean for Russia.

July 31, 2017 Real Clear Defense – Are China and India on the Road to War?
Will diplomatic measures in the Himalayas be enough or are China and India on the road to war? – Allison Fedirka

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July 30, 2017 Boston Herald – Vladimir ­Putin looks to flex his political muscle
“’I don’t think that it’s going to stop with just the withdrawal of embassy staff,’ said Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures, who said weak economic conditions can easily fray confidence in Putin’s rule in Russia’s dozens of regions. ‘For Putin, it’s very important, both on a domestic and international level, to appear powerful.’”

July 26, 2017 Real Clear World – A Different Kind of Reset in Russia
“What this new sanctions bill does, as far as the United States is concerned, is cement [the 2014 sanctions] into place, addressing the most sensitive pressure point in Russia: its energy industry.” – George Friedman

July 26, 2017 The Huffington Post – A Different Kind of Reset in Russia
Whatever the intent of the propaganda and the hacks, the Russians are back where they started. – GPF Chairman George Friedman

July 26, 2017 The Trumpet – America Is Asleep to the Danger of North Korean Nukes
“Geopolitical Futures noted the frequent, though not completely reliable, reports of Iran scientists participating in North Korean missile tests. ‘One particularly damning piece of evidence is that since 2010, North Korea has significantly increased its production of highly enriched uranium,’ the report states.”

July 25, 2017 Real Clear World – The EU: Authoritarianism Through Complexity
If the EU operating system is too complex to be grasped by British negotiators, then who can grasp it? – George Friedman

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July 22, 2017 Bloomberg Politics – Qatar Emir Breaks Silence on Gulf Feud, Is Open to Dialogue
“Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, said the government in Doha didn’t want to appear intransigent. ‘By being flexible, Qatar is trying to make the other side look bad.'”

July 20, 2017 The Epoch Times – The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict
“There are no concrete action items set out in the Chinese government’s action plan for what has become one of Xi’s most visible policy initiatives. The document contains a number of generic proposals interspersed with platitudes about cooperation and understanding,” research firm Geopolitical Futures states in a July report.

July 20, 2017 Real Clear World – The Trump Presidency, 6 Months In
The most important question at the moment is why the political configuration hasn’t changed and whether Trump can now transform it. This may seem like mere politics – the geopolitical realities of international power remain unchanged – but clearly, a weak U.S. president potentially increases barriers to American power. – George Friedman

July 19, 2017 Real Clear World – Russia’s Strategy: Built on Illusion

July 19, 2017 The Huffington Post – Russia’s Strategy: Built on Illusion
Russia lives in a complex and dangerous region, and appearing weak can be the biggest threat to its well-being. – GPF Chairman George Friedman

July 17, 2017 MarketWatch – China is playing a weak hand with the U.S.
Diverse interests and regional divides threaten social stability – George Friedman

July 14, 2017 Real Clear World – In China, a Strategy Born of Weakness

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