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Sept 12, 2018 Real Clear World – Why Idlib Matters
The province of Idlib is in the northwestern part of Syria, near the Mediterranean Sea and the border with Turkey. Ordinarily, the world ought to have little interest in who controls it. But in geopolitics, sometimes the smallest and most obscure places generate the most concern among major powers – and Idlib is doing just that. – George Friedman

Sept 8, 2018 Radio National – Saturday Extra – George Friedman on how the GFC ended the myth of liberalism
A decade after the global financial crisis, international political analyst George Friedman reflects on what he calls the end of the post-Cold War era. He argues the 2008 collapse of Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers and Russia’s invasion of the former Soviet Republic of Georgia signalled an end to the myths of liberalism and the belief that free trade could save the world.

Sept 7, 2018 TRT World – What Russia, Turkey, and Iran want in Syria now
What do the key players in Syria want now? Jacob Shapiro explains what Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria are after and what could be next for the war-torn country.

Sept 6, 2018 Real Clear World – A Bigger Game in North Korea
The denuclearization process with North Korea is going nowhere fast. Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said the U.S. has no plans to suspend any more major military exercises with South Korea. – Phillip Orchard

Aug 30, 2018 Real Clear World – Serbia, Kosovo and the Prospect of Partition
What if, say, two enemies-turned-statesmen actually agreed with each other in potentially redrawing their countries’ boundaries? Such was the case last weekend, when the presidents of Serbia and Kosovo spoke at the European Forum Alpbach 2018 in Austria. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Aug 30, 2018 Yahoo Finance – US, Canada work towards trade deal
Are trade tensions between the US and Canada coming to an end? Yahoo Finance’s Dion Rabouin, Dan Roberts and Rick Newman discuss with Geopolitical Futures Founder, George Friedman.

Aug 28, 2018 Real Clear World – Poland’s Population Problem
Like all European countries, Poland’s shrinking population poses a major challenge to its long run of prosperity. For decades now, the country has seen falling fertility rates and unsustainable emigration levels. How Poland responds to this challenge will go a long way in determining the future economic well-being and security of Poland as an independent state. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Aug 28, 2018 The Trumpet – Is This What Germany and Russia Have Been Talking About?
In what Geopolitical Futures called a “bombshell report,” the Kosovo-based Gazera Express claimed that Russia and the United States had agreed to a possible partition of Kosovo at the Helsinki summit. Under the proposal, Kosovo would give up some regions where ethnic Serbs are in the majority. In exchange, Serbia would recognize Kosovo’s independence.

Aug 27, 2018 Cicero – The Long Dance
Angela Merkel and Wladimir Putin spoke about German-Russian cooperation at Meseberg. There is common ground. One needs oil and gas, the other foreign investment and technology. But one question is crucial: What role will the US play? – George Friedman

Aug 24, 2018 Real Clear World – In Morocco, a Draft to Dodge Radicalization
Morocco has shown its support for Washington’s anti-Iran efforts by backing U.S. sanctions and warning local financial institutions and businesses not to engage in trade with Iran. Diplomatic sources told Assabah that this anti-Iran bloc would also include the Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt, giving it a reach beyond the Middle East and into North Africa. – Allison Fedirka

Aug 23, 2018 MarketWatch – Massive U.S. dollar-denominated debt is a ‘ticking time bomb’
What do the Turkish lira, the Iranian rial, the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, the Argentine peso, the Chilean peso, the Chinese yuan and the South African rand all have in common? They’ve all declined steadily this year, and some have depreciated dramatically in recent weeks. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Aug 21, 2018 Financial Mirror – Massive U.S. dollar-denominated debt is a ‘ticking time bomb’
On Monday, the US-based political think tank Geopolitical Futures said in its daily memo that “the Turkish lira is not out of the woods yet. “Off of downgrades to Turkey’s foreign currency sovereign credit rating by Standard & Poor’s and its long-term issuer rates by Moody’s, the lira was down 1.5% to about 6 on the dollar in trading on Monday. It’s better than the lows of last week, but it’s also a confirmation that the central bank’s efforts to allay the concerns of the market are not yet working.”

Aug 17, 2018 Real Clear World – The Currency Crisis of 2018?
It’s not too early to consider whether what’s happening in Turkey is simply a Turkish matter. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Aug 16, 2018 Yahoo Finance – Contagion from Turkey’s lira crash could reach the US
“This could be a bubble waiting to pop,” Jacob L. Shapiro, director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures, a global think tank, said in a note to clients. “Especially if vulnerable countries don’t have the monetary policy options to protect themselves.”

Aug 15, 2018 Real Clear World – Rebalancing China and Bracing for the Trade War
By most metrics, China’s economic “miracle” has indeed been nothing short of preternatural, with some 800 million people rising out of poverty over the span of just a few generations and the country becoming an indispensable part of the global economy. But this growth happened neither evenly nor sustainably, and it’s running out of the sort of low-hanging fruits that fueled China’s rise. – Phillip Orchard

Jacob Shapiro, Texas-based think tank Geopolitical Futures’s Director of Analysis, told Newsweek it was “exceedingly doubtful” that Iran would ever actually risk shutting down the critical lifeline for global oil trade, however, he said that “the consequences of taking this step would be dire.”

Aug 11, 2018 Yahoo Finance – What the collapse of Turkey’s currency means for the US and the rest of the world
The problems in Turkey are the tip of the iceberg in a global financial system that is rife with bad debt, says George Friedman, an author, international affairs strategist and founder of Geopolitical Futures. He argues that governments around the world are still trying to bounce back from the 2008 financial crisis.

Aug 10, 2018 Express – Iran news: Trump’s attack on Iranian energy could result in ‘MASSIVE spike’ in oil prices
Jacob Shapiro, director of analysis at the think tank Geopolitical Futures, warned that the world would witness a sharp spike in oil prices if Iran were to shut down the trade route. Speaking to Newsweek, he said: “If Iran decided it had nothing left to lose because US sanctions are effectively killing Iranian oil exports and prioritised looking strong at home over all else, there would be a large, short-term spike in the price of oil.

Despite these high-running tensions, Texas-based think tank Geopolitical Futures’s Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro told Newsweek it was “exceedingly doubtful” that Iran would ever actually risk shutting down the critical lifeline for global oil trade. In the event that it did, however, he said that “the consequences of taking this step would be dire.”

Aug 9, 2018 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: Risk Is Localized To Turkey, Jalinoos Says (Audio)
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder & Chairman, says Americans are vastly overestimating China’s capability.

Aug 8, 2018 The Courier-Herald – Perception becomes reality, both nationally and individually
China has begun to change those perceptions, according to a July 3, 2018, “Geopolitical Futures” article by George Friedman entitled, “Why China Needs to Manage Expectations.” According to Friedman, China has been too effective in portraying itself as a growing and soon-to-be “dominant military power-in-waiting.”

Aug 6, 2018 Real Clear World – An American Perspective of US-German Relations
If what Germany wants is American guarantees and capabilities without German capabilities – and therefore without the ability on the part of Germany to fulfill its own guarantees – the relationship will atrophy and ultimately collapse. If Germany wants the strategic partnership to continue, it must become a strategic partner. – George Friedman

Aug 5, 2018 TRT World – Pastor Brunson case brings US-Turkey relations to an impasse
Turkey and the US have several shared interests, but the fact is that Turkey does not see itself as a ‘junior partner’ in the relationship anymore – and that means that when the US pushes, Turkey won’t bend. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Aug 2, 2018 Cicero – Even under Trump the US is not an isolationist power
If what Germany wants is American guarantees and capabilities without German capabilities – and therefore without the ability on the part of Germany to fulfill its own guarantees – the relationship will atrophy and ultimately collapse. If Germany wants the strategic partnership to continue, it must become a strategic partner. – George Friedman

July 24, 2018 Euractiv – US-Russia relations beyond Helsinki
Last week, US President Donald Trump met with Putin in Helsinki in an attempt to improve relations that the Russian president said were “worse than during the Cold War.” The question no one is asking is: What will US-Russia relations look like by the end of the Trump administration? – Jacob L. Shapiro

July 23, 2018 Casimir Pulaski Foundation – GPF WEEKLY: The Trump Doctrine
A doctrine is how a president is forced to operate foreign policy in the reality in which he finds himself. Sometimes, presidents proclaim their own foreign policy doctrines. Other times, observers see a coherent pattern in a president’s foreign policy and outline the doctrine for him. In both cases, doctrines ought to be seen not as strokes of genius or decisions made at the will of the president but as actions imposed on him and dictated by reality. – George Friedman

July 20, 2018 Real Clear World – The Geopolitics of London: Or, How England Joined the World
London’s time as the undisputed king of European finance ended on June 23, 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. There were many precursors to this change, but one was more important than all the others, and it is perhaps the most overlooked: the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of East and West Germany.

July 17, 2018 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: What Russia Does is Bluff, Says Friedman (Audio)
George Friedman, GeoPolitical Futures Chairman, says that a great deal of what Russia does is a “bluff.” He spoke with Bloomberg Surveillance’s Tom Keene on the day of the Helsinki summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin.

July 16, 2018 Cicero – The Trump Doctrine
When it comes to Russia, Trump had a menu of options: aggressiveness, passivity or diplomacy. He had to choose the latter, which explains his meeting with Vladimir Putin.

July 12, 2018 The Trumpet – Iran Threatens to Block the Strait of Hormuz
“President Trump is implementing a strategy to cut off Iran’s oil exports, and it is coming at a bad time for Iran. According to Geopolitical Futures, this could diminish Iranian oil output from its current 2.28 million barrels per day to only 1 million barrels per day. This would cause the value of Iran’s currency, the rial, to collapse.”

July 11, 2018 The Trumpet – Is News of China’s Rise Hurting China?
“‘China, as all countries do, has been emphasizing its achievements and celebrating its future,’ wrote George Friedman for Geopolitical Futures. He said that recent articles downplaying China’s power ‘break the pattern and thus need to be taken seriously.'”

July 6, 2018 Real Clear World – Ethiopia: A Regional Power in the Making?
When we think of countries competing for power and influence in the Horn of Africa, a short list of candidates comes to mind: the U.S., Iran, China, Russia, Turkey and various European powers. Notably absent from this list are countries from within the region itself. But this may be about to change.

July 2, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: China’s president may be weaker than he appears
Historically, as China rises, it loses stability. When it loses stability, it installs a dictator. The dictator may take the form of an emperor or party chairman, but he is a dictator nonetheless. It is in this context that I have begun to form a tentative theory: that Xi Jinping’s strength is a facade. – George Friedman

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