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Oct. 11, 2017 CTV News Channel – Video: Canadian-American Family Freed After 5 Years
“Something doesn’t really add up here.”- GPF Senior Analyst Kamran Bokhari on the release of a Canadian-American family from a Taliban-linked group


Oct. 11, 2017 Huffington Post – Manners and Political Life
Today, we are surrounded by politicians who have decided that honesty requires that they show how deeply they detest each other, and a public that feels free to display its contempt for any with whom it disagrees. – George Friedman

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Oct. 11, 2017 Real Clear World – North Korea: Where China Can Beat the U.S.
Of all the parties involved in the Korean missile crisis, the most difficult to read is China. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 10, 2017 TRT World – A new era in Turkish-Venezuelan relations?
Turkey and Venezuela don’t have many things in common but they do understand realpolitik. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Oct. 8, 2017 ValueWalk – Capital Is Flocking to Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman


Oct. 7, 2017 MacroGeo – Can US relations stand the test of time?
The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists – Kamran Bokhari

Oct. 6, 2017 The Market Oracle – Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman


Oct. 5, 2017 Newsmax – Eastern Europe Becoming Target for Capital From All Around World
Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade. But despite making up roughly 20 percent of the total population of the EU, the region accounts for only about 7.4 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product. – George Friedman

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Oct. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – Intellectuals and Thugs: The Russian Revolution
George Friedman: If human progress was certain, then why should the intellectual have to undertake the effort and risk of driving it forward? The intellectual hungered for power and recognition, and therefore the vision of progress being his to deliver to humanity was tremendously seductive.


Oct. 4, 2017 Huffington Post – Intellectuals and Thugs: The Russian Revolution
The 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution is approaching. It was a revolution based not merely on hope but on the certainty that the human condition could be filled with equality, plenty and freedom. It created a regime that was willing and felt compelled to go to any lengths to create that perfection, but that regime ended in 1991, exhausted by the squalor it had created. – George Friedman


Oct. 4, 2017 Radio Poland – Poland to become regional powerbroker
In 30 years Poland will become a regional powerbroker, with the prospect of playing an important role on the international arena, renowned American geopolitical futurist and political analyst George Friedman has argued.

Oct. 2, 2017 wGospodarce.pl – Friedman: Za 30 lat Polska będzie regionalną potęgą

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Sept. 30, 2017 Real Clear World – A Fight Spain Can’t Win
The autonomous Spanish community of Catalonia plans to hold an independence referendum on Oct. 1. The Spanish government intends to prevent that referendum from taking place ­– by any means necessary. Ironically, Spain’s crackdown, while predictable, exacerbates the very threat Spain is trying to subdue. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Sept. 30, 2017 ValueWalk – The Equifax Hack Must Be A Wake-Up Call To Redefine Digital Security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

Sept. 30, 2017 Wszystko Co Najważniejsze – Co dzieje się w Polsce?

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Sept. 28, 2017 Business Insider – GEORGE FRIEDMAN: The Equifax hack must be a wake-up call to redefine digital security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

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Sept. 27, 2017 Real Clear World – Poland Challenges the European Identity
Poland elected a government that pledged to change the direction in which the country was moving. The new government was of the right. It sought to change the management of the state-owned media and “reform” (in its terms) the judiciary. So far this is politics as usual. – George Friedman


Sept. 27, 2017 Newsmax – The Equifax Hack Must Be a Wake-Up Call to Redefine Digital Security
The Equifax hack must be the last straw in the saga of our inept computer industry. – George Friedman

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Sept. 26, 2017 Real Clear World – The Looming Confrontation in German Mainstream Politics
Germans headed to the polls over the weekend in an election that saw declining support for establishment parties and rising popularity of a formerly fringe nationalist party. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union experienced its worst performance since the end of World War II. – Antonia Colibasanu


Sept. 25, 2017 ValueWalk – Why Turkey Can’t Stay Out Of Syria
Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Sept. 25, 2017 The Market Oracle – Here’s Why Turkey Can’t Stay Out Of Syria
Turkey has tried not to be involved in Syria since the Syrian civil war began. But unseen forces keep pulling Turkey into Syria. Forces that date back to the times of the Byzantines and Ottomans. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Sept. 25, 2017 Business Insider – South Korea throws a wrench into the US’s war plans


Sept. 24, 2017 ValueWalk – Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack
The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves. And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles.


Sept. 23, 2017 ValueWalk – Missile Defense Unlikely Protect Us From A North Korea Attack
From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. – George Friedman


Sept. 22, 2017 Equities – How Effective is US Missile Defense Against a North Korean Attack
Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. – George Friedman


Sept. 22, 2017 Newsmax – South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans
From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter. – George Friedman

Sept. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle – South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans

Sept. 21, 2017 The Market Oracle – Why US Missile Defense Won’t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack
Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and operationally unproven in combat situations to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea. – George Friedman

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Sept. 20, 2017 Business Insider – Here’s why US missile defense probably won’t protect us from a North Korea attack
Ballistic missile defense (BMD) seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time—and some have even intercepted their targets—the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute. – George Friedman

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Sept. 20, 2017 Real Clear World – The Constraints That Define Donald Trump
One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. – George Friedman


Sept. 20, 2017 Huffington Post – The Constraints That Define Donald Trump
One of the core principles of geopolitical forecasting is the idea that political leaders have far less personal power than they are assumed to have. They live in a universe of constraints that not only limit what they can do but also shape their agendas and actions. – George Friedman

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Sept. 19, 2017 Real Clear World – The U.S. Faces Unsavory Choices in the Korean Peninsula
In its attempt to deal with the threat from Pyongyang, the U.S. is facing another obstacle: South Korea. – George Friedman


Sept. 15, 2017 MacroGeo – In the decades ahead US and Mexico will fight for control over Cuba
Beyond the obvious shared border, the U.S.-Mexico rivalry is expressed most notably in the Caribbean, particularly in Cuba, where Washington and Mexico City have competing strategic interests. We are currently in a relative lull regarding this bilateral competition in the Caribbean, but in the decades ahead there is potential for it to resume. – Allison Fedirka


Sept. 14, 2017 MacroGeo – In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed
Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada’s founders understood this. – George Friedman

Sept. 14, 2017 CIRSD Horizons Magazine – The Limits of the Trump Doctrine
Observers too readily dismiss what Trump says as naiveté at best, and the ravings of a madman at worst. Too often such characterizations obscure the fact that he has a real and coherent strategic vision. – George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro


Sept. 13, 2017 Huffington Post – In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed
Reconciling the interests of places as diverse as Calgary, Quebec and Nova Scotia is difficult to imagine. They are too different in every sense to feel part of a single country. Canada’s founders understood this. – George Friedman

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Sept. 12, 2017 Real Clear World – Hungary Pulls Away From the Kremlin
As tensions between the U.S. and Russia heat up, the concept of the Intermarium alliance among Eastern European states to block Russia’s expansion westward is gaining steam. – Antonia Colibasanu


Sept. 10, 2017 Tygodnik Wprost – American Chess
According to GPF’s Jacob L. Shapiro, U.S. President Trump has little room to maneuver with regards to North Korea.


Sept. 8, 2017 Equities – Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices
It won’t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can’t be ruled out. – George Friedman

Sept. 7, 2017 The Market Oracle – Hurricane Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices
It won’t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can’t be ruled out. – George Friedman

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Sept. 7, 2017 Real Clear World – Revisiting Europe, the Heroic Delusion
The European Union is what political philosopher Leo Strauss might have called a “heroic delusion.” It is a noble dream, a dream that the only thing necessary for peace in Europe is shared prosperity. And for a time, the EU was living the dream. – Jacob L. Shapiro

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Sept. 7, 2017 Business Insider – Hurricane Harvey might raise oil prices — but only temporarily
If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline—which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast’s refined product, according to the EIA—US consumers would not only have to pay more at the pump, but US policymakers would have to deal with Russia, which would greatly benefit from even a momentary spike in prices. – George Friedman


Sept. 6, 2017 Fortune – Why Killing Kim Jong-un Won’t Solve Anything
Assassinating North Korean leader Kim Jong-un isn’t the answer. North Korea’s regime is not one man. Cut the head off of this snake and it will reveal itself to be a hydra. – Jacob L. Shapiro





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