Geopolitical Futures in the Press
May 9, 2018 Real Clear World – The Case for North Korea’s Liberalization
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made another surprise visit to China on May 7 for a banquet and a languid stroll along the beach with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coastal city of Dalian. According to a Chinese statement, Kim told Xi that he wants to focus on economic development now that he has “succeeded” at nuclear development. For much of the spring, Kim has been laying the groundwork for just such a move. – Phillip Orchard
May 9, 2018 MarketWatch – Risk of war between Iran and Israel has risen markedly after Trump’s decision to scrap nuclear deal
It didn’t take long, once President Donald Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, for Israel and Iran to move around their military assets.
May 8, 2018 Real Clear World – Israel and Iran Prepare for Conflict
It didn’t take long, once U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, for Israel and Iran to move around their military assets.
May 8, 2018 Real Clear World – Is a Multipolar World Emerging?
Everywhere you turn, people are sounding the alarm about the decline of American power. The alarms are loudest in the U.S. itself. Those who oppose President Donald Trump believe he is destroying America’s influence and credibility abroad. – Jacob L. Shapiro
May 4, 2018 Dennis Prager Show – More George Friedman and Geopolitical Forecasts
Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman discusses his insights on the developing situation in North Korea, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Syrian war.
May 4, 2018 Ave Maria Radio – Kresta in the Afternoon – North Korea Deal: Real Progress or a Sham?
Kim Jong Un has promised to make steps toward a denuclearization of Korea. Is this a sign of improved relations between North Korea and the rest of the world, or is Kim just playing everyone for fools? George Friedman discusses the situation.
April 27, 2018 Bloomberg Markets – The Main Issues That Could Prevent Peace for North, South Korea
Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman discusses the meeting between the leaders of North Korea and South Korea and voices skepticism that it will lead to anything meaningful.
April 24, 2018 Real Clear World – Armenia: Not Another Color Revolution
It took less than two weeks of protests for Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan to step down from the position. But as GPF’s Nora T. Kalinskij explains, unlike the revolution in Ukraine, in Armenia even the interim government will lean toward Russia.
April 24, 2018 WORLD Radio – The World and Everything in It – The Olasky Interview: George Friedman
WORLD Magazine’s Marvin Olasky talks with GPF Chairman George Friedman on which global leaders will be up or down over this next year in terms of their popularity or their success.
April 20, 2018 Cicero Magazine – The mutual indifference
The histories of the United States and Germany have been intertwined since before 1900. Sometimes they were allies, sometimes adversaries. Now, German-American relations are governed by the principle of indifference. – George Friedman
April 19, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: How Facebook and internet marketers really sway elections
“Some claim that Cambridge Analytica was a decisive force in Trump’s election. More than anyone, Cambridge Analytica benefits from this belief. Except for the possibility of it having taken illegal action, Cambridge Analytica’s greatest marketing triumph may be earning the public reputation of having the expertise to shape history.” – George Friedman
April 19, 2018 Radu Craciun – Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures: “World wars tend to be recurrent”
Sen. Analyst Antonia Colibasanu speaks with Radu Craciun on the future of global powers, from China, the US, and the “New Europe.”
April 17, 2018 MacroGeo – Poland, the Natural Ally for Post-Brexit Britain
‘By March 2019, Britain will leave the European Union. It can’t, however, leave Europe. It’s best hope to remain an influential power in Europe is to build stronger ties with another state on Europe’s periphery: Poland.’ – Nora T. Kalinskij
April 16, 2018 The Trumpet – Viktor Orbán’s Reelection: Another King Secures His Reign
“’Viktor Orbán is not an outlier but a forerunner,’ George Friedman wrote for Geopolitical Futures. ‘We normally don’t write on elections, on the premise that politicians are trapped in the impersonal forces of reality and therefore personalities matter little,’ he explained. ‘This election is somewhat different because it shows that the forces that want to reorganize Europe are strong and growing stronger.’”
April 13, 2018 Real Clear World – The Syrian Tangle
It’s almost been a week since the latest major chemical attack, this time targeting the Damascus suburb of Douma. Assad’s regime is again generally assumed to have been responsible. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed a short time later that there would be a “big price to pay” and, outside of an ambiguous tweet on April 12, has continued to threaten military action, yet this time he has held off on launching it. – George Friedman
April 12, 2018 World Magazine – Power players
‘[Trump] doesn’t have enough votes in Congress to get anything done. His best bet is to hold his base together and hope lightning strikes.’ – George Friedman
April 12, 2018 MacroGeo – The Syrian Tangle
‘Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is.’ – George Friedman
April 10, 2018 Interest.co.nz – Jacob L. Shapiro & George Friedman argue Germany’s reunification after the collapse of the Soviet Union was the most important precursor to Brexit
No part of the United Kingdom will feel the ramifications of the UK’s departure from the EU more deeply than London, which by dint of strategic necessity became a European financial and economic powerhouse. That is why Londoners voted with the Scots and the Northern Irish to “Remain”—because London, not England, will bear the brunt of the short-term disruptions to come. – Jacob L. Shapiro & George Friedman
April 7, 2018 Real Clear World – The New Shape of the Middle East
The Middle East has assumed a different shape and structure in recent years. Nowhere is this more visible than in the April 4 meeting in Turkey between Russia, Iran and Turkey. This group has become critical in defining the Middle East. It is not necessarily a cohesive group, and its staying power is uncertain. But for the moment, the United States, formerly the defining power of the region, is moving to the margins, and a new architecture has emerged. – George Friedman
April 9, 2018 Casimir Pulaski Foundation – GPF WEEKLY: The middle of an Era
Twenty years is an arbitrary time period, but historically it’s about the length of a human generation. The world changes radically in each generation, but the dates can vary. The last era began in 1991 and ended in 2008. Yet even now there are many who are waiting for the world of 1991 to return. More important, only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt. – George Friedman
April 5, 2018 Real Clear World – Ideology Is Dead
The Soviet Union viewed itself as the vanguard of a global revolution – this was the end that justified the means. The U.S. similarly believed it was unique, a liberal light unto the nations sworn to defend the freedom of every individual. The same cannot be said today for either. – Jacob L. Shapiro
April 5, 2018 Newstalk ZB – An East Asia Roundup with George Friedman
Can New Zealand balance between world powers? Is a U.S.-China trade war imminent? What’s the latest on the North Korea nuclear crisis? George Friedman answers these questions and more on News Talk with Leighton Smith.
April 4, 2018 Real Clear World – Turkey Keeps Its Enemies at Bay
Turkey is in the unenviable position of being surrounded by historical adversaries: Russia to its north, Iran to its east and south (via Syria), and Europe to its west. – Xander Snyder
Mar. 20, 2018 World Magazine – War-gaming Korea
“The American policy on Korea remains unchanged. We will not tolerate a nuclear weapon in his hands that can reach the United States. But Kim has avoided that. He wants to convince the South Koreans to diminish or break the relation with the United States.” – George Friedman
Mar. 19, 2018 MarketWatch – George Friedman: America today is still finding its place in a radically changed world
“As the geopolitical system shifts, there is a tendency to see the shifts as transitory, a temporary disruption caused by unfortunate events, until they are well- entrenched, and so we tend to align ourselves with the shift far too late.” – George Friedman
Mar. 13, 2018 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: A More Hawkish Foreign Policy Ahead, Bremmer Says
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Chairman & Founder, says there has always been tension between the Defense Department, State Department, and CIA.
Mar. 6, 2018 The Trumpet – Japan: A New Leader in Global Trade
“George Friedman wrote recently at Geopolitical Futures: ‘The problem for China is that it is unclear if the country can pull off the kind of politically stable economic transition that Japan managed when its high-growth ‘miracle’ ended in the early 1990s.'”
Mar. 3, 2018 Daily Times – The significance of Indo-US alliance for Pakistan
“It is now commonly believed in the US that NATO cannot win in Afghanistan as long as Taliban sanctuaries exist in Pakistan. But as George Friedman assumes, ‘While the US and NATO forces must rely increasingly on Pakistani supply routes to fight the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan — fearful that the United States and India will establish a long-term strategic partnership — has the incentive to keep the jihadist insurgency boiling (preferably in Afghanistan) to keep the Americans committed to an alliance with Islamabad, however complex that alliance might be.'”
Mar. 1, 2018 Bloomberg Surveillance – Surveillance: The World is Awash with Capital, Ailman Says
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder and Chairman, says China and Russia are two constrained military powers trying to pass on the world stage as if they were much more powerful.
Feb. 28, 2018 Real Clear World – Why China Opted For a Strongman
Chinese President Xi Jinping made a string of moves over the weekend that reflect the extraordinary power he’s wielding from atop the Chinese system – but also the threats to both his position and his country that are keeping him up at night. – Phillip Orchard
Feb. 27, 2018 Forbes – In Search Of Investors, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Is Coming To America
“Besides, says George Friedman, of Geopolitical Futures, ‘Who wants to invest in oilfields so easily bombed by Iran?’ Even the Trump Administration would think hard before rushing to Riyadh’s aid.”
Feb. 23, 2018 Real Clear World – The World After McMaster
Senior government officials come and go, and it rarely matters. One suit replaces another, and life goes on. At this moment, however, the fate of McMaster is somewhat more important. – George Friedman
Feb. 19, 2018 Real Clear World – China’s Not the Only Target If U.S. Imposes Steep Tariffs
The US Commerce Department concluded its investigations on Feb. 16 – and the results give President Donald Trump significant new powers. – Jacob L. Shapiro
Feb. 15, 2018 Emerging Europe – In the Balkans, the Power of a Name
Greece and Macedonia appear to be inching toward a settlement on a decades-long dispute over who owns the name “Macedonia.” But with nationalism in both countries rising – as it has been across Europe since 2008 – a deal could endanger the stability of the region or even trigger a conflict between Macedonia’s ethnic Albanian minority and ethnic Macedonian majority. – Antonia Colibasanu
Feb. 14, 2018 Real Clear World – A ‘Credible’ EU Strategy for Balkans Expansion
Finally, the EU is getting serious about the Western Balkans. At least, that’s the implication of its new strategy for the region, aptly titled “A credible enlargement perspective for an enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans.” – Antonia Colibasanu
Feb. 13, 2018 Real Clear World – Mexico’s Drug War Is No Closer to an End
Unfortunately for Mexico, the byproduct of the government’s efforts has not been a reduction in violence. On the contrary, violence has increased, in large measure because of the fracture and proliferation of smaller cartels as hostile to one another (if not more so) as they are to Mexican authorities or the local populations. – Jacob L. Shapiro
Feb. 8, 2018 The Trumpet – Iranian Presence in Mediterranean Sea Alarms Israel
“Access to the Mediterranean is strategically important to Iran’s aggressive pursuit of regional hegemony. It’s also a geopolitical necessity, which ‘explains why Iranian and Persian strategy has always focused on developing proxies or strategic relationships with countries amenable to its designs,’ Geopolitical Futures wrote on January 3.”
Feb. 7, 2018 Center for Security Studies – Turkey Invades, NATO Benefits
NATO’s announcement sheds some light on an underlying reality: that NATO benefits from Turkey’s intervention. While the NATO deputy secretary general said the threat posed to Turkey was from terrorism, NATO’s true fear is Russia. – Xander Snyder