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Dec. 14, 2017 Huffington Post – Europe’s Era of Harmony Is Over
On an abstract level, it would seem that the periphery of the European Union is pulling away from the center. And the center has quietly debated whether that’s a good thing. – George Friedman

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Dec. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – For North Korean Peace, Conditions May Apply
Pyongyang has proved its ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the continental U.S., and it is well on its way toward having a deliverable nuclear weapon. The U.S. must respond, and so far, sanctioning North Korea and pressuring China haven’t worked. This has left Washington with two choices: eliminate the threat or reduce it. – Allison Fedirka


Dec. 13, 2017 MarketWatch – Why it matters if bitcoin is a currency or a commodity
Bitcoin has transformed from an idea that some treated with great enthusiasm to an asset of strikingly growing value. – George Friedman

Dec. 13, 2017 The Market Oracle – Why the Saudis Failed to Cripple Qatar
Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports. The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed. – Allison Fedirka

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Dec. 12, 2017 Real Clear World – What Is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has transformed from an idea that some treated with great enthusiasm to an asset of strikingly growing value. – George Friedman

Dec. 11, 2017 Brain Bar – Why technology is NOT the catalyst
Advanced technologies are and always have been tools. They do not challenge the nation-state. They are used by the nation-state. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Dec. 8, 2017 Bloomberg Quint – Israeli Planes Hit Gaza as Jerusalem Crisis Spurs More Violence
“So much is happening. You cannot mobilize people. There’s immense fragmentation in the Arab Muslim world on many issues.” – Kamran Bokhari


Dec. 8, 2017 Equities – Geopolitical Risk Isn’t Driving Rising Oil Prices
Experts explained the spike with vague references to “geopolitical risk,” without really detailing what those risks entailed. Such explanations are not wrong, but they are careless. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder

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Dec. 7, 2017 Real Clear World – Brexit and the Geopolitics of Divorce
The EU wants the breakup to hurt London, even if it hurts Europe in the process. – George Friedman


Dec. 5, 2017 Equities – This Map Shows Germany’s Critical Mistakes Fighting Russia in WWII
The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of World War II. – George Friedman

Dec. 5, 2017 Live Mint – Opec deal will support oil prices, but long-term cap remains
As an article by George Friedman and Xander Snyder of Geopolitical Futures said, “Rising oil prices cannot be explained solely by events in the Middle East or by Opec’s cuts. Rather, it’s a combination of Opec’s cuts and the inability in the near term of shale drillers to significantly expand capacity…”

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Dec. 4, 2017 Real Clear World – Israel and Iran in Syria
Israel has had very limited involvement in Syria. In fact, it has had limited involvement in much of the upheaval that has been sweeping the Middle East. Given Netanyahu’s statement and the substantial public coverage of this airstrike, it would seem that the Israelis are on the threshold of changing this policy. – George Friedman

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Nov. 30, 2017 Real Clear World – Iran Reshapes the Middle East
Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. – George Friedman


Nov. 30, 2017 The Epoch Times – The Cracks in China’s Economy
“The challenge however, is that limiting the funds available to the real estate industry can also lead to a crisis. China’s difficult task, then, is to decrease the amount of off-balance-sheet debt while preventing a downturn in real estate that could threaten the economy,” the Geopolitical Futures report states.

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Nov. 29, 2017 Business Insider – Here’s how Nazi Germany lost on the Eastern Front to the Soviet Union in World War II
The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of World War II. – George Friedman

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Nov. 29, 2017 Real Clear World – Why the Next U.S. Recession Could Be Worse Than the Last
In January, we forecast that the signs of just such a recession would emerge by the end of the year. And emerge they have. The yield curve between short-term and long-term US Treasuries is the flattest it has been at any point in the past 10 years. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Nov. 29, 2017 Huffington Post – Iran Reshapes the Middle East
Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. – George Friedman

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Nov. 29, 2017 Real Clear World – Why the Next U.S. Recession Could Be Worse Than the Last
In January, we forecast that the signs of just such a recession would emerge by the end of the year. And emerge they have. The yield curve between short-term and long-term US Treasuries is the flattest it has been at any point in the past 10 years. – Jacob L. Shapiro


Nov. 29, 2017 CITY A.M. – A US recession is imminent, and Germany may suffer the most
“‘We have to wait for Germany to make its move,’ George Friedman declared at the 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference.”

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Nov. 28, 2017 Real Clear World – In Israel, Danger Is on the Horizon
The fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq put a number of issues on hold in the Middle East. But the Islamic State is now all but defeated, and with the loss of a common enemy has come the loss of a common purpose for the anti-IS coalition. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Nov. 28, 2017 interest.co.nz – George Friedman & Xander Snyder probe what’s behind the recent rise in oil prices
For weeks, developments in Saudi Arabia have been cited in commentary on oil markets. It all comes down to the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran – a rivalry that plays out throughout the region, in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere. – George Friedman & Xander Snyder

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Nov. 27, 2017 Real Clear World – China’s Reform Troubles Start at the Local Level
Two cities in China’s Inner Mongolia region recently canceled planned mass-transit rail lines, and several other cities are struggling to get approval for projects of their own. These cancellations and delays mark the latest step in Beijing’s efforts to rein in local government debt. – Matthew Massee


Nov. 25, 2017 The Epoch Times – Who’s Responsible for the Booming Economy?
“[The president], after all, will only be the president and his unilateral powers will be limited. For most of the things he wants to do, he needs Congress to go along,” writes George Friedman of research firm Geopolitical Futures.


Nov. 23, 2017 CFA Institute Enterprising Investor – George Friedman: A US Recession Is Imminent, So Watch Germany
“In his presentation to financial professionals in Berlin, [George Friedman] explained that ‘there is one last piece’ of the global financial crisis that must play out ‘before we can move on.'”


Nov. 22, 2017 ValueWalk – A Nationalist Movement Is Brewing In India-And Indians Seem To Support It
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.

Nov. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle – India’s Brewing Nationalist Movement
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.

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Nov. 21, 2017 Real Clear World – War, Nuclear War and the Law
The U.S. Senate held hearings last week on the president’s authority to use nuclear weapons. The trigger for the hearings was the North Korea situation, and the fear among some that President Donald Trump might launch a reckless nuclear attack against the North Koreans. – George Friedman

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Nov. 18, 2017 Real Clear World – A Vision for India’s Future
According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. – Jacob L. Shapiro

Nov. 18, 2017 interest.co.nz – George Friedman takes a look at Chinese authorities efforts to keep the country’s burgeoning financial sector in check and highlights the extent of the challenges they face
Top government officials in China understand, and aren’t afraid to talk about, the problems in the financial system. But there are no simple solutions. Creating new committees and regulations is easy; pre-empting problems and enforcing changes are not. – George Friedman and Matthew Massee


Nov. 17, 2017 Super Express – George Friedman dla Super Expressu: Rządy PiS to nadal demokracja liberalna
What Trump says is a catastrophe. What he does is insignificant, says American political scientist George Friedman in a conversation with Super Express


Nov. 15, 2017 Газета ЛИТЕР – «Астана клуб» – эффект есть
The third meeting of the Astana Club has finished its work in the Nazarbayev Center. The largest figures of the global expert community included George Friedman.

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Nov. 14, 2017 Real Clear World – In the Ukraine Peace Process, Kyiv Makes Itself Heard
President Donald Trump’s recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin has overshadowed a week’s worth of developments in Ukraine, a country that Russia and the U.S., ironically, have a shared interest in pacifying. – Allison Fedirka


Nov. 13, 2017 The Trumpet – German Military Plans for a Possible Collapse of the West
Antonia Colibasanu wrote for Geopolitical Futures: “The release of details about Germany’s first national defense strategy in decades is a signal to the world that it doesn’t intend to sit idle.” For 70 years, Germany has been content to sit in America’s shadow and hasn’t bothered doing this kind of planning. That time is over.

Nov. 12, 2017 Channel One Russia – Год за три: с чем Дональд Трамп подходит к концу первой четверти своего президентского срока?
“When Trump became president, it turned out that he could not make decisions on his own. I think that Trump really did not understand this before. And it still makes him furious,” says political scientist George Friedman.


Nov. 12, 2017 Bloomberg Markets – Lebanon’s Hariri Says He’s Free in Saudi Arabia, Back Soon
“Hariri is stuck in the middle,” said Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures. “He wants to counter Iran and Hezbollah but does not want to simply be a Saudi pawn on this chessboard.”


Nov. 12, 2017 Вестник Кавказа – Turkey: political implications of financial problems
Turkish President Erdogan intends to increase access to credit to stimulate economic activity. This is a political goal, although motivated by economic reasons. Analysts of Business Insider George Friedman and Xander Snyder in the article ‘Turkey faces economic dilemma that will have global implications’ came to this conclusion.


Nov. 11, 2017 Polskie Radio – “He was treated like a friend.” Trump in China
George Friedman was a guest on Polskie Radio during the Warsaw Security Forum.

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Nov. 11, 2017 Real Clear World – Profiling Lebanon: The Western Front of a Proxy War
If the Middle East is at least in part a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then Lebanon may be called its western front. – Kamran Bokhari

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Nov. 11, 2017 Business Insider – Turkey faces an economic dilemma that will have global implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder


Nov. 10, 2017 dsnews.ua – MCKINSEY & COMPANY ОТМЕТИЛА 15-ЛЕТИЕ РАБОТЫ В УКРАИНЕ
More than 250 leaders of the private and social sectors of Ukraine, as well as representatives of the diplomatic corps and international financial institutions took part in the event. Invited speaker George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and former chairman of Stratfor, called on the Ukrainian government to create solutions for the country’s economic problems and seize opportunities.


Nov. 10, 2017 BBC World – Video: Kamran Bokhari talking to BBC World about KSA vs Iran in Lebanon


Nov. 10, 2017 Newsmax Finance – Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder

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Nov. 10, 2017 Business Insider – 5 maps that explain China’s strategy
There is a gap between what is generally expected of China and what China actually does. To understand what China’s actual national strategy is, it is helpful to follow the logic inherent in the following five maps. – George Friedman (originally written January 2016

Nov. 9, 2017 The Market Oracle – Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. – George Friedman and Xander Snyder





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