South Asia

Net Assessment of South Asia

Dec. 2, 2015 South Asia is home to almost a quarter of the world’s population. The region’s geopolitical reality is dominated by a complex series of power dynamics, centered on the relationship between Pakistan and India.

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Daily Memo: US-Russia Relations, Hindu Nationalism, Leaving Afghanistan

All the news worth knowing today.

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Daily Memo: All About the G-20

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Daily Memo: Russia and Ukraine, China and Pakistan, Israel and the Middle East

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Iran’s Ambitions Persist, South America’s Bubble Bursts

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: The Global Economic Outlook Is Grim

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Daily Memo: Violence in Gaza, the Taliban in Afghanistan, Elections in Ukraine

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Daily Memo: US Delays, Jihadist Mergers, Good News in Pakistan

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What’s at Stake in Sri Lanka’s Government Shake-up

Both Beijing and New Delhi have been trying to curry favor with Colombo for years.

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Daily Memo: Escalating a Trade War, Breaking an Agreement, Feints in the South China Sea

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Daily Memo: Sri Lanka, Israel and Oman, China and Japan

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India’s Own String of Pearls

New Delhi is boosting its defense presence across the Indo-Pacific, as Beijing’s footprint also grows.

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Saudi Arabia Reaches Its Moment of Reckoning, the Quad Keeps Things Informal

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Saudi Investment in Pakistan Could Yield Global Returns

The deal could pay dividends for both parties, as well as the U.S., while costing Iran and China.

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The Predictive Power of Demography

History suggests the conventional wisdom about demographics and national power may be wrong.

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Daily Memo: Global Economic Woes, China’s Veterans, Ukraine’s Conflict

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Daily Memo: Israel vs. Gaza, France vs. Germany, India vs. the US and Russia

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Daily Memo: On the Global Economy, Indo-Pacific Traffic and Russian Aggression

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Daily Memo: Iran and India, an Update on Syria

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Daily Memo: Catalonia’s 9/11, Pakistan’s Dilemma, Syria’s Status

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Free Trade in Asia Without the US

The “world’s largest free trade area” is unlikely to be much of an economic game-changer.

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Daily Memo: A Flurry of US Diplomatic Activity

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Daily Memo: Pakistan Stands Alone, China Entraps Myanmar, the Storm Comes in Idlib

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America’s Global Engagement

The myth of disengagement derives from American rhetoric and not American actions.

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The Fallout From a Currency Crunch

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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One Belt, Many Headaches

The centerpiece of BRI is in Pakistan, a place not known for its security or financial stability.

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The Currency Crisis of 2018?

It’s not too early to consider whether what’s happening in Turkey is simply a Turkish matter.

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Trade and Security: The Two Sides of US-Indian Relations

New Delhi is a valuable partner to Washington on one but not the other.

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On NAFTA, US Engagement in the Middle East, and the China-Japan Competition

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: US Funding Shortfalls, Exclusions from NAFTA, Skepticism of Pakistan

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In Search of Victory in Afghanistan

At this point, the U.S. is fighting its own self-image.

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Daily Memo: The Middle East Makes Waves, North Korea Walks Back, the US Talks Trade Truce

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Daily Memo: Russia’s Shuttle Diplomacy, China’s Checkbook Diplomacy

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Daily Memo: A Russian Rejection in Syria, a Mexican Proposal in the US, a Japanese Visit to India

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Daily Memo: US Competitors Bounce Back, Tough Talk With Iran, Violence in South Asia

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Daily Memo: Complications in U.S. Sanctions, Caucasus Machinations

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Global Shipping Is Collateral Damage in the Coming Trade Wars

Yet the industry has proved highly adaptable in past crises.

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Daily Memo: Redefining Relations Between the EU and Japan, Iran and Pakistan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia

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A Trade War Heats Up

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Poland’s Defiance, China’s Finance

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Daily Memo: The Most Important Geopolitical Story in the World

All the news worth knowing this weekend.

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Daily Memo: Warm US-Russia Relations, Combustible Chinese Finance, Simmering Iranian Tensions

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Daily Memo: More on Protests in Iran, More on Mattis in China, More on Migration

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Daily Memo: Elections in Turkey, Confidence in Putin, Lots of Problems in China

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Central Asia’s Dangerous Homecoming

The Islamic State could make the region its next base.

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The G-7, Frozen in Time

It’s a product of an era that no longer exists.

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India, Ever the Reluctant US Ally

Their differences are too many for New Delhi to constantly walk in lockstep with Washington.

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China, India and the Confrontation Neither Side Wants

Underlying forces are pushing the two sides into a self-perpetuating cycle of zero-sum competition.

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Why Indonesia Doesn’t Choose Sides

Jakarta is pursuing what it characterizes as “strategic equidistance” between China and the U.S.

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India’s One Belt, One Road-Block

New Delhi’s goals are to make money and thwart China’s plans.

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The End of the US-Pakistan Alliance

Each side has been forced to get less than it needed from the other.

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2017 Forecast: Year-end Report Card

Dec. 21, 2017 It’s time to look back on how we fared this year.

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The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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For India and China, Southeast Asia Is a Battleground

Dec. 12, 2017 India is expanding its efforts to gain a foothold in the region.

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China’s One Belt, One Road Faces Pushback

Nov. 21, 2017 Countries want China’s funding but not at any cost.

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A Vision for India’s Future

Nov. 17, 2017 A unified national identity could make India a powerhouse.

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India: Banking on a New Stimulus Plan

Nov. 7, 2017 Since taking office, the prime minister has been using economic measures to consolidate his control.

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Can US Relations Stand the Test of Time?

Oct. 6, 2017 The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists.

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Against the US, Pakistan Stands Its Ground

Sept. 18, 2017 Its defiance probably won’t amount to much though.

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What the Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar Misses

Sept. 7, 2017 The embattled Rohingya are caught in the crosshairs of a larger power struggle.

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India: Falling Short of Great Power

Aug. 31, 2017 Internal disunity has held New Delhi back from projecting power throughout the subcontinent.

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Delaying the Inevitable in Afghanistan

Aug. 22, 2017 With the way things are going, the country will unravel with or without a U.S. military presence.

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China and India Guard Against the Preposterous

Aug. 18, 2017 Nations do not take their national security lightly merely because the threat is far-fetched.

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In Pakistan, Vulnerability Is the Price of Independence

Aug. 17, 2017 Long after the U.S. has left the region, Pakistan will still be living in the shadow of India.

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Radical Islam by a Different Means

Aug. 8, 2017 Islamist groups don’t become less extreme just because they enter the political mainstream.

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Trump’s Emerging Afghan Policy

Aug. 7, 2017 Like the one before it, the current U.S. administration is finding it difficult to end the war.

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The Islamic State: Lessons in Crossing Boundaries

Aug. 4, 2017 The group is attracting the sort of attention that will make continued success hard to come by.

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Are China and India on the Road to War?

July 31, 2017 They’ve overcome the elements to fight for this inhospitable region before, but this time is different.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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The Retreat of Secularism in India

June 30, 2017 Hindu nationalism is filling the void, and jihadism may not be far behind.

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Ramadan: A Holy and Violent Month

June 2, 2017 Jihadist groups have invoked the Islamic holiday’s history to further their agendas.

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Regime Collapse and a US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

May 8, 2017 No one is willing to acknowledge the extent of the challenge in Afghanistan.

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Regional Security and the Islamic Military Alliance

April 5, 2017 The formation of a “Muslim NATO” may actually encourage jihadism.

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Turning Economic Risk into Opportunity in India

March 23, 2017 In tackling non-performing loans, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to centralize political power.

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State Elections and Power in India

March 14, 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be more effective at centralizing power than previously thought.

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China and a Philippine Foreign Secretary’s Ouster

March 10, 2017 The South China Sea is a sideshow.

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The Afghanistan-Pakistan Fault Line

March 2, 2017 The U.S. will be engaged in military and intelligence operations at the Afghan-Pakistani border for many years.

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China’s Limits in the Indo-Pacific

Jan. 20, 2017 Taking stock of competition between India, China and the U.S. in the Indian Ocean.

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Russia’s View of Afghanistan and the Taliban

Jan. 18, 2017 Improving relations with the Taliban gives Moscow the ability to increase its bargaining position in dealings with Washington.

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The Real Goal Behind India’s Economic Reforms

Jan. 12, 2017 The prime minister’s decision to demonetize India’s currency is as much about centralizing power as economic reform.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Funding the Rebels in Myanmar

Nov. 23, 2016 The Chinese government is allowing domestic fundraising for Myanmar rebel fighters.

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India’s Money Maneuver

Nov. 18, 2016 New currency measures are causing long lines and short tempers.

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Tensions Brewing Between India and Pakistan

Nov. 2, 2016 Neither side wants war, but both face pressure to retaliate against attacks.

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The Coming Crisis in South Asia

Oct. 13, 2016 Rising tensions in Kashmir mean the region can no longer be considered stable relative to the rest of Eurasia.

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Afghan Government Staring at the Abyss

Oct. 10, 2016 The Taliban seem to be overwhelming the government on the battlefield.

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Afghanistan’s Unending Civil War

Sept. 15, 2016 Despite Western backing, the government has been unable to suppress the Taliban and gain control of the country.

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The Taliban and the Divided Afghan State

Aug. 30, 2016 Those who would fight the Taliban cannot present a united front.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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India: One State, Many Countries

May 19, 2016 As the rest of Eurasia slides further into crisis, the only thing getting in India’s way is India.

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Shifting Alliances in the Middle East and South Asia

April 4, 2016 For Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan and India, the long-established dynamics are changing.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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Russia-Taliban Talks

Dec. 26, 2015 A Russian official said the country has had contact with the Taliban over the Islamic State, which would represent a shift in Russian policy.

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Net Assessment of South Asia

Dec. 2, 2015 South Asia is home to almost a quarter of the world’s population. The region’s geopolitical reality is dominated by a complex series of power dynamics, centered on the relationship between Pakistan and India.

Keep reading

The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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