South America

Net Assessment of South America

April 28, 2016 The region stands out due to its relative stability, while much of Eurasia faces crises.

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Daily Memo: Farmers Lobby Congress, Putin Protects Businesses, Bolsonaro Goes to Washington

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Daily Memo: Iran’s Enemy, Protests in Nicaragua and France, German Banking

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Daily Memo: Maduro’s Military, Algeria’s Protesters, the Economy’s Outlook

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Brazil’s Chance to Lead

The crisis in Venezuela poses a national security threat, leaving Brazil little choice but to take action.

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Daily Memo: US-India Diplomacy, North Korean Missiles, Venezuelan Stalemate

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When and Why the Suppliers of Oil Matter

More often than not, it doesn’t matter where oil comes from. But the exceptions to this rule can be critical.

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Cuba’s Shifting Geopolitics

The island’s role in the geopolitical system has evolved over time.

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Daily Memo: European Loans, Venezuelan Finances, Pakistani Crackdowns

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Toward a New Geopolitical Model

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Venezuelans, Caught in the Crossfire

As the world chooses sides in the fight between Venezuela’s two presidents, millions of civilians are struggling to survive.

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Daily Memo: Cheerful Trade Talks, Mounting Pressure in Venezuela, Sacked Government in Kazakhstan

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Daily Memo: Problems in North Korea, Ultimatums From the US, Aid for Venezuela

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Daily Memo: Nicaragua Courts the Opposition, Russia Abandons Venezuela (Maybe), Australia Sours on China

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How Venezuela Aligned the Western Hemisphere

The U.S. finds itself aligned with the region. Can it capitalize on the opportunity?

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What We’re Reading: Cuba and Mars

Weekly reviews of what’s on our bookshelves.

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Daily Memo: Antitrust in Europe, Australia Strikes Back at China

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Daily Memo: Oil Problems for Venezuela, Nuclear Problems for Iran

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Dissenting Opinions: On an Intervention in Venezuela

George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro offer different perspectives on a potential intervention.

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Daily Memo: Updates on Venezuela, Trade and Tech Wars With China

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Daily Memo: US-China Tension, Sanctions on Venezuela, the Threat to Eastern Europe

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What’s Really at Stake in Venezuela’s Unrest

The country’s crisis is escalating with no end in sight.

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Venezuela’s Opposition Takes a Chance on Change

The Venezuelan government is no stranger to protests, but the latest wave promises to be different.

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Daily Memo: Venezuela on the Brink, the US and South Korea at Odds

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Daily Memo: An Economic Update, Military Tensions in Syria and at Sea, Contested Presidents

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Daily Memo: A Trump-Kim Meeting, US-China Negotiations, Russian-Israeli Cooperation

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Daily Memo: Turkey’s Foes, Russia’s Friends, Uzbekistan’s Reforms

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Daily Memo: German-Russian Relations, the US Economy, Brazilian Reforms

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Brazil Finds More Than a Friend in Israel

The leaders of the two countries have made headlines recently for their budding friendship. But there’s more than a bromance driving their countries together.

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Argentina, in Search of Another Economic Fix

With a global slowdown on the horizon, its tools for recovery are increasingly limited.

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The World in 2019: A Year on the Edge

One era is ending and another will soon begin.

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How Brazil Outgrew Mercosur

Years of dysfunction in the trade bloc are restricting Brazil’s global ambitions, and it needs a way out.

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Daily Memo: Unrest in France, More of the Same From the GCC

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Daily Memo: Germany’s Economy, OPEC’s Future, the Balkans’ Volatility

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Tracing the Origins of Venezuela’s Crisis

The country’s current predicament was centuries in the making.

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What We’re Reading: The Legacy of the Past in Venezuela and Germany

Weekly reviews of what’s on our bookshelves.

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Daily Memo: All About the G-20

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Daily Memo: Korean Reunification, Trade War Frustration, Venezuelan Opposition

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Colombia’s Fragile Stability

It’s better off than other countries in the region, but that’s not enough to cope with the challenges coming down the road.

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Iran’s Ambitions Persist, South America’s Bubble Bursts

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: The Global Economic Outlook Is Grim

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Brazil’s New Leader Strives to Break Old Patterns

Jair Bolsonaro hopes to pull the country out of economic crisis and political scandal with ambitious reform initiatives. It won’t be easy.

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Daily Memo: A Lost War in China, a ‘Troika of Tyranny’

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Daily Memo: Calls for a Yemen Cease-fire, Brazilian Foreign Policy, Update on Venezuela

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Daily Memo: The Fallout From Elections in Germany and Brazil

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The US Rivalry With China Gets Closer to Home

Beijing’s interest in the Caribbean and Central America has gotten Washington’s attention.

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The Predictive Power of Demography

History suggests the conventional wisdom about demographics and national power may be wrong.

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Daily Memo: Global Economic Woes, China’s Veterans, Ukraine’s Conflict

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Why Brazil’s Election Won’t End Its Political Crisis

The results of the first-round vote confirm that the crisis is far from over.

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Bolivia Remains Landlocked

The International Criminal Court in The Hague ruled this week against Bolivia’s claim that Chile must negotiate access to the Pacific Ocean for the landlocked country. Bolivia lost its access following the War of the Pacific.

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Daily Memo: On the Global Economy, Indo-Pacific Traffic and Russian Aggression

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Breaking Rank in South America

Countries are starting to insist on handling the Venezuelan crisis in their own way.

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Argentina’s Latest Bust Cycle

This time the debt troubles should stay localized.

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Coping With Venezuelan Migration

South American countries are ill-prepared to deal with the influx of more people.

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Daily Memo: Europe Reconsiders Russia, Argentina Needs Cash Now, Syria Stirs

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The Fallout From a Currency Crunch

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Xi Returns, Violence in Chechnya, Turkey’s Money

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The Currency Crisis of 2018?

It’s not too early to consider whether what’s happening in Turkey is simply a Turkish matter.

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Daily Memo: Global Money Problems, Chinese Loans, Afghan Security

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On NAFTA, US Engagement in the Middle East, and the China-Japan Competition

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Explosions in Venezuela, Protests in China, Updates in Iran, Borders in the UK

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Daily Memo: Turkish Military Matters, US Energy Supplies

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Daily Memo: A Russian Rejection in Syria, a Mexican Proposal in the US, a Japanese Visit to India

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Daily Memo: US Competitors Bounce Back, Tough Talk With Iran, Violence in South Asia

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Global Shipping Is Collateral Damage in the Coming Trade Wars

Yet the industry has proved highly adaptable in past crises.

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A Trade War Heats Up

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: A Conversation on NATO, a Bubble in China, Oil in Russia

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Daily Memo: Cash Flow in China, Shake-ups in Central Asia, Migration Everywhere

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The G-7, Frozen in Time

It’s a product of an era that no longer exists.

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Brazil: A History of Military Interventions

Could the military intervene again to help Brazil address some of its political and economic woes?

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Why Venezuela Can’t Be Like Colombia

Despite their comparable geography and similar origins, Venezuela can’t hope to soon match its neighbor’s relative stability.

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Argentina Seeks Help, Not Rescue

Turning to the IMF won’t be popular, but failure to reform is not an option.

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Colombia’s Problem With Mexican Cartels

The crackdown on cocaine production has opened the door for groups outside of the country.

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South America’s ‘Pink Tide’ in Transition

The recession of this left-leaning stance is to be expected.

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In Brazil, the Government Walks a Fine Line With Military Deployment

Putting the military in charge of security in Rio de Janeiro stirs memories of the country’s years of military rule.

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2017 Forecast: Year-end Report Card

Dec. 21, 2017 It’s time to look back on how we fared this year.

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The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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Argentina Powers Ahead With Economic Reforms

Oct. 2, 2017 Subsidies and price controls may soon be a thing of the past.

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US Power: A Finite Resource

Aug. 14, 2017 With a number of issues at its doorstep, the U.S. may have to prioritize some interests over others.

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In Venezuela, the Government Faces Dual Opposition

Aug. 9, 2017 Factions of the military and civil society are teaming up to challenge the president.

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If Venezuela Were Stable

Aug. 2, 2017 Even a crisis as fraught as Venezuela’s will eventually pass. But what happens then?

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South America: Divided, not Conquered

July 27, 2017 Geography prevents any one nation from dominating the continent.

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The Collateral Damage of Corruption in Brazil

July 14, 2017 The Brazilian case shows that these cases can have a spillover effect.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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The Future of the Venezuelan Crisis

May 16, 2017 The government’s options for surviving this year are dwindling.

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South America’s Strategic Value to Mexico

April 27, 2017 Mexico prioritizes relationships with South American countries that help support its livelihood and mitigate external threats.

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Venezuela’s Breaking Point

April 3, 2017 Forces are converging to push the Nicolás Maduro government to the brink.

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The Periphery’s Role in Geopolitics

March 29, 2017 We explain how South America and sub-Saharan Africa fit into the GPF model.

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Brazil Says Goodbye to São Paulo

Feb. 22, 2017 The South American country decommissions its only aircraft carrier.

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Something’s Got to Give in Venezuela

Jan. 19, 2017 The government will reach a breaking point this year.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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South America: A Different View of Internationalism

Dec. 2, 2016 In many ways, South America remains an outsider looking in.

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The UK and Argentina’s Perennial Squabble

Oct. 21, 2016 London continues to find strategic value in the Falkland Islands.

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What to Expect from Brazil’s Economic Recovery

Oct. 20, 2016 The government is introducing reforms to attract investment.

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The Use and Abuse of Referendums

Oct. 4, 2016 They may be democratic, but they rarely reveal the will of the people.

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Venezuela at a Tipping Point

Sept. 7, 2016 As Maduro loses support and the opposition stares down a deadline, political turmoil in Venezuela could come to a head.

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Nationalism, Technology, and the Olympics

Aug. 15, 2016 The Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals.

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Why Brazil’s Economy May Be Headed for Recovery

July 15, 2016 There are growing indications that investments in Brazil are increasing.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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Venezuelan Crisis Reaching a Peak

May 18, 2016 The opposition is increasing its pressure on Maduro.

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Brazil’s Bigger Problems

May 13, 2016 The president’s impeachment is indicative of deeper geopolitical issues.

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Something That Didn’t Happen in Venezuela

May 12, 2016 What do you do when a source tells you about an imminent coup?

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Net Assessment of South America

April 28, 2016 The region stands out due to its relative stability, while much of Eurasia faces crises.

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Venezuela’s Political Crisis Unfolds

April 27, 2016 The country is in gridlock, while the opposition attempts to oust the president.

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Oil Prices and Social Unrest in Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela

April 20, 2016 The countries most dependent on oil revenue have experienced social unrest due to plummeting prices.

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Brazil, Argentina and Oil: The Root of the Problem

April 13, 2016 Both countries were seeing signs of trouble well before oil prices crashed.

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Lessons on Terrorism: Colombia and the FARC

March 31, 2016 Before the current war on terror, left-wing groups were a major source of terrorism globally.

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Power and Change in Cuba’s Elite

March 23, 2016 The Cuban government, economy and security structures are facing uncertainty ahead.

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The Challenges in Solving Brazil’s Political Crisis

March 17, 2016 Many are fed up with corruption and economic stagnation, but various camps see different ways forward.

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Uncovering What Will Happen for Rising Powers

March 3, 2016 A deeper look at how our geopolitical model informs our forecasts.

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Simón Bolívar’s Vision for Spanish America

March 2, 2016 How one man helped shape a region’s independence movement.

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How South America Has Avoided Interstate War

Feb. 15, 2016 The continent has not seen a prolonged interstate military conflict in over 80 years.

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Venezuela Faces Potential Default

Feb. 9, 2016 The country will struggle to meet its mounting debt obligations in 2016.

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Argentina’s Foreign Investment Potential

Feb. 2, 2016 While much of the world is in a downturn, things may be looking up for Buenos Aires.

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Net Assessment of Latin American’s Main Trade Blocs

Jan. 29, 2016 Calls for convergence between the two major groups in the region have been growing, as more countries see the benefits of cooperation.

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Brazil Continues to Attract Investors

Jan. 25, 2016 Investors indicate they still have a strong interest in the Brazilian market.

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A Big Day in Geopolitics

Dec. 8, 2015 We look at how several key geopolitical developments in Europe, Russia and Latin America yesterday impact Geopolitical Futures’ forecast.

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Venezuela Election Results

Dec. 7, 2015 The degree to which MUD can challenge President Nicola Maduro and redirect the Venezuelan government depends on how much of a majority it holds in the National Assembly.

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Presidential Impeachment Motion in Brazil

Dec. 3, 2015 A motion for impeachment of the president has been initiated but, even if successful, this will not solve Brazil’s critical economic problems.

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Stability Expected After Venezuelan Elections

Dec. 1, 2015 The recent regional-level support for a democratic electoral process in Venezuela and the emergence of Chile as a leftist facilitator suggest that there is a higher chance of post-election political stability in Venezuela.

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Argentina Moves to the Right Following Election

Nov. 24, 2015 The election of center-right candidate Mauricio Macri has provoked a sense of optimism about the country’s future.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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