Russia

Net Assessment of Russia

April 14, 2016 Russia is facing a number of challenges, most notably increasing Western influence along its western periphery and declining prices for oil and gas, which are key sources of revenue for the Kremlin. How the country deals with these issues will determine its future path.

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Daily Memo: Trouble at Russia’s Borders, Daylight Between the U.S. and Western Europe

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Daily Memo: Kurds, Oil in the South China Sea, Russia and North Korea

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Daily Memo: US Delays, Jihadist Mergers, Good News in Pakistan

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The Illusion of a Russia-China Alliance

Neither country can solve the other’s top economic and strategic problems.

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Daily Memo: Iran Sanctions, Belarus and the West, Defiant China

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Ups and Downs in International Relations, All Eyes on Central Asia

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Rumors of Saudi Succession, Updates on Yemen, Good News for the EU

All the news worth knowing today.

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To Reach Pakistan, Saudi Arabia Goes Through Turkmenistan

The Central Asian state could give Riyadh a way into the surging Pakistani natural gas market – and edge Iran out of it.

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Daily Memo: Escalating a Trade War, Breaking an Agreement, Feints in the South China Sea

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Daily Memo: Demographic Decline in Asia, Mixed Signals From the German Economy

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Daily Memo: Treaties on the Rocks, Pessimism in Poland

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The Limits of Nuclear Arms Treaties

The idea that a treaty can mitigate the threat of war simply misses the point.

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Daily Memo: Damage Control in Saudi Arabia

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Daily Memo: Exploiting the North Korea Talks, Unintended Consequences

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Daily Memo: China Makes Nice with Japan, Belarus Walks the Line

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Daily Memo: A Pastor in Turkey, a Rift in the Orthodox Church, Migrants in Spain

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The Predictive Power of Demography

History suggests the conventional wisdom about demographics and national power may be wrong.

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Daily Memo: Competition in the Black Sea, Tensions in Israel, Security in Mexico

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Daily Memo: Global Economic Woes, China’s Veterans, Ukraine’s Conflict

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Daily Memo: Israel vs. Gaza, France vs. Germany, India vs. the US and Russia

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The Battle of Norway

A new military exercise reminds us of a battle that never was.

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Daily Memo: Russian Pension Reform, European Uncertainty

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Daily Memo: Russia’s Oil Flows, EU Problems Grow

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The US Threatens Russia Over Missiles

Washington claims Moscow violated an arms control treaty.

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A New Test for Russia-Israel Relations

After the downing of its aircraft in Syria, Moscow needs to respond somehow.

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Daily Memo: China’s Weakness, Russia’s Missile Diplomacy

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Is Belarus Pulling Away From Russia?

Times are tough, so Minsk is considering its options.

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Daily Memo: Turkey, Afghanistan, Palestine, the Balkans, Russia, Japan

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Daily Memo: Defiance in Europe, Updates in Syria

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Daily Memo: Trouble Brewing in the Middle East, Bad News for the Global Economy

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Mixed Signals in East Asia, Undue Optimism in Russia

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Sanctions, Territorial Integrity and Dispute Resolution

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Daily Memo: Iran’s New Deal, Japan’s Old Prime Minister, Israel’s Olive Branch

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Daily Memo: US Turns Up the Heat on China and Russia

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Daily Memo: US vs. Iranian Proxies, Russia vs. the West

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Daily Memo: EU Discipline, Philippine Drama, Vladivostok Headlines

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Daily Memo: Syrian Developments, Iranian Attacks, Canadian Risk

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What the Battle for Idlib Really Comes Down To

For Russia, it’s about coaxing Turkey away from the Western camp.

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America’s Global Engagement

The myth of disengagement derives from American rhetoric and not American actions.

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Daily Memo: Catching Up on a Busy Weekend

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Daily Memo: No Deal on NAFTA

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Daily Memo: Venezuelan Flights, North Korean Slights

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Daily Memo: Canada Plays Catch-up, Russia Is Everywhere

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Daily Memo: The Benefits of Blaming China

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The Fallout From a Currency Crunch

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Challenges to the Trade War, Russia in the Black Sea, Saudi Aramco

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Daily Memo: Elections Interference, Chinese Influence, Korean Progress

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Germany and Russia: The Long Dance

Perhaps this time is different.

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Daily Memo: Pushing Back Against the US, Jihadist Wars in Somalia

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Daily Memo: Malaysian Promises, Chinese ‘Navies,’ US-Mexican Counternarcotics

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Daily Memo: US-China Talks, Qatari Money, Mexican Drugs

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The Currency Crisis of 2018?

It’s not too early to consider whether what’s happening in Turkey is simply a Turkish matter.

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Daily Memo: Spotlight on China’s Uighurs, a Common Enemy in Syria

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Six Weeks in 2008 and the Forging of the Present

In the span of 40 days, the post-Cold War optimism was crushed.

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Daily Memo: Iran’s New Sanctions, China’s Broken Traditions, Afghanistan’s Definitions

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Serbian Nationalism: Identity Out of Necessity

A shared objective – expelling the Ottomans – gave rise to a truly single national identity.

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Daily Memo: US Funding Shortfalls, Exclusions from NAFTA, Skepticism of Pakistan

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Daily Memo: Iran’s Political Instability, Eritrea’s Rehabilitation, the Price of Supporting Ukraine

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China, Russia and the Nature of Forecasting

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Poverty and Security in Russia

For Moscow, some regions are more problematic than others.

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Daily Memo: A Russian Rejection in Syria, a Mexican Proposal in the US, a Japanese Visit to India

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US-Russia Relations Beyond Helsinki

For the U.S., Ukraine is important. For Russia, Ukraine is everything.

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Belarus and Russia: An Integration Project Stalled

In the end, it’s a matter of sovereignty.

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Daily Memo: Concerning the Rumors in China

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Italy Challenges the EU’s Russia Policy

Rome wants concessions from Brussels, and it’s strong enough to get them.

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Daily Memo: Complications in U.S. Sanctions, Caucasus Machinations

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Thinking About the Trump-Putin Meeting

The American president was not restrained by his advisers, but domestic politics imposes its own limits.

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Global Shipping Is Collateral Damage in the Coming Trade Wars

Yet the industry has proved highly adaptable in past crises.

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Daily Memo: Redefining Relations Between the EU and Japan, Iran and Pakistan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia

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Daily Memo: Protests in Iraq, a Presidential Meeting in Helsinki

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In Iraq, Local Protests Could Have Wider Implications

The demonstrations in an oil-rich region could exacerbate the problem of declining spare oil capacity.

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Daily Memo: Updates on Iraq Oil Protests, Japan’s Remilitarization

All the news worth knowing this weekend.

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A Trade War Heats Up

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Mercenaries, Executive Powers, NATO Takeaways

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Russia’s Iraq War

Russia is showing signs of mission creep in Syria.

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Daily Memo: Trade War Updates, NATO Intrigue, Balkan Diplomacy

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Imagining the Trump-Putin Talks

To get what he wants, Trump needs to come up with a radical strategy.

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Daily Memo: Underappreciated Threats From Iran, Overlooked Casualties in a Trade War

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Daily Memo: A Conversation on NATO, a Bubble in China, Oil in Russia

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Daily Memo: Amnesty in Mexico, Unemployment in Saudi Arabia, Road Bumps in North Korea

All the news worth knowing this weekend.

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Daily Memo: Poland’s Defiance, China’s Finance

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Daily Memo: Opposition to European Agreements, Challenges to the Turkish Economy

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Daily Memo: Germany’s Political Drama, Good News and Bad News in the Middle East

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Toward a New Understanding of World Trade

Precise evaluations of current and future global trade patterns are more important than ever.

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Daily Memo: Warm US-Russia Relations, Combustible Chinese Finance, Simmering Iranian Tensions

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Azerbaijan Asserts Its Power in the South Caucasus

A minor escalation carries an important message.

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Is the Russian Economy Defying Western Sanctions?

The country’s economy is improving, but the devil is in the details.

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The G-7, Frozen in Time

It’s a product of an era that no longer exists.

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Iran, Russia: What’s at Stake in the Syrian Civil War

Tehran is fighting a much more dire battle.

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The Role of Political Leaders

Even the most powerful ones are constrained by impersonal forces.

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Armenia: Not Another Color Revolution

Unlike the revolution in Ukraine, in Armenia even the interim government will lean toward Russia.

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The Syrian Tangle

Direct intervention is not an appealing option for Trump, but the creation of uncertainty is.

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Measures of US Power

The U.S. doesn’t have to use its military to influence global events.

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Marketing and the Delegitimization of Elections

The core issue is not one of marketing but of citizenry.

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Israel and the Search for a Balance of Power

The Israelis won’t tolerate a permanent Iranian presence in Syria.

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The New Shape of the Middle East

In a strange way, the U.S. is the thread holding together Russia, Iran and Turkey, if only temporarily.

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Ideology Is Dead

The world is inching toward a new competition as a dominant power is challenged by other powers seeking to defend or achieve their national interests.

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Two Perspectives on the Conflict in Afghanistan

Russia and the U.S. see the situation differently – as they must.

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The Uses of Embassy Spies

Blinding Russian intelligence at a time like this would be dangerous.

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The Ideologue’s Case Against Iran

The U.S. is about to give geopolitics a major test.

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Putin’s Russia

The Russian leader understands that the appearance of weakness is more dangerous than the weakness itself.

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Putin vs. Political Apathy

For someone running virtually unopposed, he’s stumping awfully hard.

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In Eastern Ukraine, No Good Options Remain

Rebel-held Luhansk now stands on the frontline of the conflict between East and West.

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The Middle of an Era

Only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt.

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Central Asia Steps Out of Russia’s Shadow

The countries are ready to find solutions to internal problems without Moscow’s help.

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A New US Defense Strategy for the Future

After two decades of putting out brush fires across the globe, Washington is refocusing on China and Russia.

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Israel’s Russia Gambit

How will Russia respond to the implied request to rein in the Iranians?

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Turkey Invades, NATO Benefits

After Turkey goes after Afrin, NATO is happy.

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Foreign Affairs a Year After Trump

There’s a belief that U.S. policy has fundamentally changed. It hasn’t.

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Russia and the Limits of Power

Perception matters when there aren’t many options.

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An Oil Price Increase Is Not Enough for Russia

Though crude oil prices are expected to hover around $60 a barrel in 2018 and 2019, that’s not enough to buoy Russia’s economy.

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Turkey Breaks With Iran and Russia

Despite setting up “de-escalation zones” in Syria, the three countries are at odds.

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The End of the US-Pakistan Alliance

Each side has been forced to get less than it needed from the other.

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In Syria, an Attack on Russia’s Narrative

Russia will now have to demonstrate that it can finish a job it said was already done.

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Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience

Dec. 26, 2017 A common enemy isn’t the basis for a stable, enduring partnership.

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2017 Forecast: Year-end Report Card

Dec. 21, 2017 It’s time to look back on how we fared this year.

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Putin’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in Syria

Dec. 20, 2017 In the Middle East, today’s successes can be tomorrow’s failures.

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In Austria, Europe’s Latest Battle Is Brewing

Dec. 19, 2017 The new Austrian government could be paving the way for a new coalition in Europe.

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Belarus Holds the Line

Dec. 18, 2017 The country’s president understands his purpose: to help shield Russia from invasion.

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The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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In Syria, Turkey Remains Silent on Russian Moves … For Now

Dec. 8, 2017 Ankara has been vocal about its opposition to support for Kurdish groups in the past.

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In North Korea, Is the United States’ Loss Russia’s Gain?

Dec. 7, 2017 Moscow’s proposal to resolve the brewing conflict ignores basic facts on the ground.

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A Top-to-Bottom Review of the Russian Economy

Nov. 30, 2017 With low oil prices, Moscow has had to get creative with the way it raises money.

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German Intelligence Failures Ahead of Stalingrad

Nov. 24, 2017 The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of the war. Operation Barbarossa, the code name for Germany’s invasion of the east, was designed to destroy the Soviet Union, securing Germany’s eastern flank and thereby guaranteeing German control of continental Europe. The invasion began on June 22, 1941.

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Stalingrad

Nov. 22, 2017 The German army during World War II regarded the city as a way station en route to Baku’s oil, but it turned out to be a meat grinder.

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Saudi Arabia, Russia: Delivering Missiles, Delivering Promises of Cooperation

Nov. 16, 2017 Iran has been quiet about Moscow and Riyadh’s newfound friendship – and the weapons that friendship has procured.

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In the Ukraine Peace Process, Kiev Makes Itself Heard

Nov. 13, 2017 Kiev’s errant behavior is proof that negotiations are progressing.

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The North Caucasus: Russia’s Soft Underbelly

Oct. 26, 2017 The region is a key buffer zone for Moscow.

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Serbia Is No Place for Friendly Military Competition

Oct. 24, 2017 Though there may be room for friendly economic competition, the same cannot be said for matters of defense.

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The South Caucasus: Untamed Crossroad of Empires

Oct. 19, 2017 The mountainous terrain forms a daunting barrier, whose few passages are worth fighting for.

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In US-Russia Relations, a Little Subtlety Goes a Long Way

Oct. 18, 2017 There are hints that the two sides may be getting closer to an accommodation over Ukraine.

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A Most Dangerous Option for Germany

Oct. 16, 2017 Either through alliance or conquest, Russia is an alternative to the U.S. and EU.

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Intellectuals and Thugs: The Russian Revolution

Oct. 4, 2017 If ideas must be pursued at all costs, then anything standing in their way must be crushed.

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An End in Sight for Ukraine … Maybe

Sept. 28, 2017 There are early indicators that Russia and the U.S. may settle for neutrality in Kiev right now.

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Russia’s Foreign Policy of Disruption

Sept. 21, 2017 Russia is playing a weak hand, but it is playing it very well.

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Russia Eyes New Sources of Revenue Amid Low Oil Prices

Sept. 18, 2017 We stress test a plan to increase income taxes in Russia.

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Hungary Pulls Away From the Kremlin

Sept. 12, 2017 Budapest has taken small but notable steps to realign with Washington.

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In Sweden, an Ethical Dilemma of Nuclear Proportions

Sept. 8, 2017 By signing a new nuclear weapons ban, Stockholm would be giving up U.S. and NATO security cooperation.

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Syria’s Shattered Future

Sept. 7, 2017 The U.S. and Russia both have hopes for Syria’s future. They’re both likely to be disappointed.

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The World Outside of North Korea

Sept. 6, 2017 While everyone watches North Korea, these are the stories that caught our attention.

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For Russia, an Opportunity in US Sanctions

Aug. 29, 2017 Moscow is fighting back in a familiar arena: the Caucasus.

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When Neutrality Isn’t an Option

Aug. 14, 2017 The Europeans are split on how to deal with sanctions against Russia.

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US Power: A Finite Resource

Aug. 14, 2017 With a number of issues at its doorstep, the U.S. may have to prioritize some interests over others.

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One Way Russia Can Retaliate Against US Sanctions

Aug. 7, 2017 Moscow’s energy supplies, especially those it sends to Europe, may be its best option to respond to U.S. pressure.

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Toward a Geopolitics of the Arctic

Aug. 3, 2017 There are many misconceptions about the region, its potential and its impact on Russia.

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Russian Sanctions: The Kremlin’s Response

Aug. 3, 2017 Moscow is looking to a few key regions to relieve some of the pressure from the U.S.

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The Axis of the Sanctioned

July 28, 2017 Sanctions can achieve little on their own and might actually make a situation worse.

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A Different Kind of Reset in Russia

July 26, 2017 Whatever the intent of the propaganda and the hacks, the Russians are back where they started.

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The EU: Powerless Over Russian Sanctions

July 26, 2017 The bloc’s member states can’t agree on how to approach expanded U.S. sanctions against Moscow.

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In Russia, an Expiration Date on Autonomy

July 25, 2017 A treaty with the semi-autonomous republic of Tatarstan has become a tool of Moscow’s retribution.

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Russia’s Strategy: Built on Illusion

July 19, 2017 The appearance of weakness might be Moscow’s biggest threat.

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Predicting the Unpredictable in Russian Agriculture

July 18, 2017 An unforeseen decline in grain yields could have an effect on the country’s economy and social stability.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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Hostages to History at the G-20 Summit

July 5, 2017 Leaders overstate how much their relationships define national agendas.

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Russia: Hacking Away at US Power

June 15, 2017 Moscow wants to sow seeds of domestic political turmoil in the United States.

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Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

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Different Visions for Europe

May 31, 2017 The U.S. vision to contain Russia through NATO is inadvertently pulling Europe apart.

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Why Russia Can’t End the North Korea Crisis

May 26, 2017 The Kremlin wants to appear influential in an issue that has great consequence for the U.S.

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Guarding the Guards at the CIA

May 22, 2017 Trusting an agency to tell the lies it must is a tough enough sell in a democracy.

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A Weakening State in Azerbaijan

May 19, 2017 The country’s economic problems make it increasingly vulnerable to outside influences.

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The Downfall of Chechnya

May 18, 2017 Kadyrov’s plan to stay in power while Russia’s backing is unreliable could accelerate his government’s demise.

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The Latest Trump Crisis

May 17, 2017 Washington is running as the Founders intended. In the short term, that’s bad for the country.

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The Cost of Fixing Russia’s Economy

May 12, 2017 Putin must choose between trying to save the economy and saving himself.

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The Best-Laid Plans of Saudi Arabia and Russia

May 9, 2017 Gone are the days when Riyadh could dictate oil prices by itself.

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Russia Opens the Door to Cryptocurrencies

April 25, 2017 Moscow hopes to address some of its banking sector woes with new technology.

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Russia, Belarus and a Catch-22

April 13, 2017 Moscow needs Minsk on its side.

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Exporters’ Crisis Update: 16 Vulnerable Countries

April 6, 2017 GPF has identified and tracked how the exporters’ crisis has unfolded in what we consider the most vulnerable countries.

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The Next Four Years

April 6, 2017 A GPF conference put a spotlight on some of the key events in the world today.

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Propaganda and Challenges to the Russian Regime

April 4, 2017 Moscow is trying to maintain an image of strength.

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The Russian Opposition’s Coming Out

March 28, 2017 Sunday’s nationwide protests signal that Vladimir Putin’s administration could be in trouble.

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Russia’s Role in Libya

March 15, 2017 Moscow has little to gain from involvement in the country, other than an appearance of power.

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Russia’s 2018 Presidential Election

March 9, 2017 The vote will be held amid an economic crisis that will plague the country in the coming year.

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A Busy Day in Geopolitics

March 8, 2017 Massive geopolitical upheavals often fly under the radar.

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The Kuril Islands and Russia’s Pacific Interests

March 2, 2017 Russia is weakening while Japan is rising.

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Nationalism and Liberal Democracy

March 1, 2017 Tension between nationalism and liberal democracy is not what is haunting us today.

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Something Rotten in the State of Russia?

Feb. 20, 2017 Indicators show that Russia’s long-term destabilization already may be taking shape.

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Turning From Flynn to the Russians

Feb. 16, 2017 If all this is true, the Russians have seen a brilliant plan blow up in their faces.

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The Flynn Drama

Feb. 14, 2017 The reasons being given for his resignation are still unclear.

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Ukraine, Russia and Recent Fighting

Feb. 8, 2017 What flare-ups in eastern Ukraine tell us about the conflict.

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Poland Takes on Russia

Feb. 1, 2017 As it forges stronger ties in Ukraine, Warsaw is looking more like a regional power.

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Russia-US Relations in 2017

Jan. 30, 2017 The recent phone call between Trump and Putin has set off speculation over where the two countries’ relationship is headed.

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The Geopolitics of 2017 in 4 Maps

Jan. 23, 2017 We showcase some of the maps that visually represent the year ahead best.

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Understanding Peace Talks

Jan. 23, 2017 Few formal peace negotiations actually lead to peace.

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Russia’s View of Afghanistan and the Taliban

Jan. 18, 2017 Improving relations with the Taliban gives Moscow the ability to increase its bargaining position in dealings with Washington.

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Russian Blackmail and Donald Trump

Jan. 16, 2017 Was a memo by former MI6 operative Christopher Steele cover for something deeper?

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Thinking About Propaganda

Jan. 10, 2017 Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead.

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The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons

Jan. 4, 2017 The expectation of anonymity online has become extreme.

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The Soviet Union and Russia: Tragedy and Farce

Dec. 28, 2016 Russia’s recent military adventures have mostly aimed to create an illusion of strength.

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Belarus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Dec. 28, 2016 In the near future, Belarus will remain an unofficial region of Russia, whether it wants to or not.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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Forecasting Russia in 2017

Dec. 19, 2016 We look at what’s in store for Russia in the year ahead.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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A Geopolitically Significant Price for Oil

Dec. 15, 2016 We do the math on the oil price Russia needs to be sustainable.

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The Islamic State Strikes Back

Dec. 14, 2016 IS’ capture of Palmyra has pulled the cloak back on Russia’s vulnerability.

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Obama’s Deep Dive Into Putin’s Intent

Dec. 13, 2016 Was Russia meddling in U.S. elections, or is it just politics?

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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False News

Dec. 5, 2016 It has always existed, but never has been particularly effective.

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OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma

Dec. 1, 2016 OPEC countries have an agreement on production, but will they abide by it?

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Anomalies in Russia

Nov. 30, 2016 Are Russia’s banks failing or recovering?

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A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US

Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

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Russia, the United States and Donald Trump

Nov. 21, 2016 Russia and the U.S. know conflict in the future is possible, but neither is ready for it now.

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Come the Revolution

Nov. 17, 2016 Winning the war leads to the inevitable problem of running the country.

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Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands

Nov. 15, 2016 Countries in the borderlands ultimately won’t shift foreign policy to fully embrace Russia.

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How Important Is the US President – or Any Leader?

Nov. 10, 2016 Great leaders did not make history. History made them.

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The Myth of Putin

Oct. 25, 2016 Russia’s appearance of strength is eroding.

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Compromising in the Caucasus

Oct. 19, 2016 Normalizing Russian-Turkish relations are unlikely to lead to an understanding on security in the Black Sea region.

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Biden Threatens to Threaten Russia

Oct. 17, 2016 The vice president’s recent warning caused a stir without saying much.

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Germany Warns of the Danger of War

Oct. 11, 2016 With lower stakes, the U.S. and Russia might take riskier actions.

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Why Russia Is Threatening the US in Syria

Oct. 4, 2016 Moscow’s ability to back up its rhetoric is questionable.

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Behind the OPEC Agreement

Oct. 3, 2016 Russia and Saudi Arabia are cooperating as a stopgap measure to buy some time.

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Biden Demands the Impossible of Ukraine: End Corruption

Sept. 23, 2016 Sanctions against Russia aren’t working and the U.S. is forced to consider a new approach.

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Troubling Times for Regional Stability in Russia

Sept. 22, 2016 The Kremlin is searching for ways to hold the country together in the face of a struggling economy.

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Turkey and Iran’s Problems with Russia as an Ally

Aug. 25, 2016 In geopolitics, sometimes distance makes the heart grow fonder.

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Russia’s Illusion of Influence in the Middle East

Aug. 23, 2016 Moscow’s position in the region is not as dominant as it might seem.

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The Crises That Could Bring Down Putin

Aug. 22, 2016 Putin has been making moves to shore up his position in the face of a weak economy.

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American Conservatism and Russia

Aug. 17, 2016 Once staunchly anti-Soviet, some conservatives are embracing Putin’s Russia.

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Putin Fires Ally

Aug. 12, 2016 This comes amid significant reshuffling in Moscow.

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Russia, Ukraine and Threats

Aug. 12, 2016 Moscow appears to be setting up conditions to justify action against Ukraine but its goal is unclear.

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Putin’s Strategy to Maintain Power

Aug. 11, 2016 The president needs to fix the economy to ensure support from the Russian people.

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Russia Raises the Stakes Against Ukraine

Aug. 10, 2016 A series of events have increased tensions in recent days.

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Russia and Turkey Maneuver

Aug. 10, 2016 The two countries seem to be moving closer, but will it last?

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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NGOs and the Fallacy of Civil Society

July 28, 2016 Though called “non-governmental,” NGOs often receive significant government funding and may pursue political agendas.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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The Geopolitics of the Orthodox Church

June 17, 2016 While the Soviets shunned religion, Putin has used the Russian Orthodox Church toward geopolitical ends.

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US Negotiators Race Against Time

June 13, 2016 The Obama administration wants to get an agreement on Ukraine before the November elections.

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Why Russia Is Boosting Defenses on Its Western Borders

June 6, 2016 As negotiations over Ukraine continue, Moscow is sending a message to the West.

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Germany Looks to Ease Russian Sanctions

June 1, 2016 Berlin is performing a balancing act between Moscow and the West.

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The Next Chapter for the Intermarium

May 20, 2016 Growing indications suggest a new alliance structure is forming.

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The Geopolitics of Sanctions

April 19, 2016 Imposing economic pressures is a tactic governments use to pursue goals, but shifting interests ultimately shape negotiations.

 

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Net Assessment Update for Russia

April 14, 2016 Moscow is facing growing economic and security pressures.

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Journey to Europe: Thinking About Gagarin

April 13, 2016 The Cold War space race was as much about competition as it was self-doubt.

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Will Russia and China Become Allies?

April 6, 2016 An alliance between the two massive powers would challenge U.S. global dominance.

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Armenia, Azerbaijan and a Dangerous Conflict

April 4, 2016 The dispute over territory has potential to draw in major powers.

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The US and Russia Bargain Over Eastern Europe

March 31, 2016 But recent bilateral talks will not become another Yalta Conference.

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The Link Between Syria and Ukraine

March 24, 2016 The fact that the two conflicts have become intertwined is not a coincidence.

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The Week: Elections, Russians and Missiles

March 19, 2016 The U.S. presidential candidates grabbed headlines, while events in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula also took center stage.

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Russia’s Strategy After Syria

March 16, 2016 After withdrawing its troops, Moscow will concentrate on threats in its own backyard.

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Why Putin Went into Syria

March 15, 2016 Russia’s true intentions didn’t have much to do with propping up the Assad regime.

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Russia’s Strategy in Chechnya

March 8, 2016 Moscow has relied on its alliance with the local Chechen leadership to maintain control over the region.

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The Future of Russia’s Involvement in Syria

March 3, 2016 Despite concerns from Western powers, the Kremlin’s military operations will likely stay limited.

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Oil Rallies, Fantasies Surge

March 2, 2016 Prices may have risen in the past couple weeks, but the oil crisis is not over.

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A Worrying Week for Russia

Feb. 19, 2016 Challenges in all of Russia’s important buffer zones have raised strategic questions for the Kremlin.

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Russia’s Ongoing Predicament

Feb. 12, 2016 As Moscow gains ground in Syria, it is faltering in almost every other state objective.

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Why Russian-Turkish Hostility Makes Sense

Feb. 5, 2016 Tensions between the two countries have heightened again, although this is not surprising when viewed in historical context.

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Senior Russian Official Warns of American Plot

Jan. 27, 2016 The Kremlin wants to rally the public against a common enemy.

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The Decline of Pipeline Politics

Jan. 22, 2016 Reduced dependence on Russian energy in Central and Eastern Europe has diminished the Kremlin’s influence in the region.

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Exporters Pursue Privatization Plans

Jan. 19, 2016 As commodity prices and demand decline, some countries heavily dependent on exports are looking for new sources of revenue.

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Russia’s Impossible Choices

Jan. 19, 2016 Moscow finds itself in a familiar predicament.

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Russia May Suspend Foreign Lending

Jan. 18, 2016 The Kremlin’s ability to gain leverage abroad would be severely limited if it was unable to provide loans to foreign governments and partners due to financial constraints.

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Declining Demand for Exports Hits Azerbaijan

Jan. 13, 2016 The country is a major energy exporter and the decline in energy prices may impede the government’s ability to maintain internal stability.

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A Struggling Moscow Looks to the West

Jan. 12, 2016 President Vladimir Putin reaches out as Russia’s economy languishes under depressed oil prices.

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Russian Public Opinion Shifts

Dec. 30, 2015 A new poll shows a majority of Russians support an ongoing protest by truck drivers, indicating public support for the Russian regime may be waning.

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Russia-Taliban Talks

Dec. 26, 2015 A Russian official said the country has had contact with the Taliban over the Islamic State, which would represent a shift in Russian policy.

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The Azerbaijan Question Re-emerges

Dec. 24, 2015 Relations between Azerbaijan and the U.S. have recently deteriorated, which could have an impact on American interests in the Middle East and Russia.

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Destabilization in Central Asia

Dec. 23, 2015 Central Asian governments have been turning their attention to potential security threats and economic problems that could destabilize the region.

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EU Extends Russia Sanctions

Dec. 21, 2015 A six-month extension was applied to sanctions on Russia by the European Union, indicating members of the EU have mixed priorities when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine issue.

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Tajikistan, Russia and Fears of Unrest

Dec. 18, 2015 The decline of the Russian economy and weakening of the ruble have had significant impacts on Tajikistan and the governments in both countries are concerned about a possible increase in instability as a result.

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A Budget Cut in Abkhazia and Russia’s Strategic Problem

Dec. 17, 2015 Sometimes a tiny bit of information on a budget cut in a place like Abkhazia reveals a great deal about the global balance of power.

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US Strategy Towards Russia and Turkey

Dec. 15, 2015 The U.S. is holding simultaneous high-level talks in Turkey and Russia, however, the negotiations will highlight the diverging priorities of the Americans and the regional powers in the Middle East.

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Russian Ruble Weakens

Dec. 8, 2015 Russia’s currency fell today, after crude oil prices slumped, presenting challenges for the government’s recently approved 2016 budget.

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A Big Day in Geopolitics

Dec. 8, 2015 We look at how several key geopolitical developments in Europe, Russia and Latin America yesterday impact Geopolitical Futures’ forecast.

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The Ukrainian Mystery

Dec. 3, 2015 After the sabotage of power lines caused an electricity shortage in Crimea, the Ukrainian government displayed a fairly casual attitude toward the matter, given that the shortage directly challenges Russia’s position in Crimea.

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Azerbaijan Caught Between Opposing Neighbors

Dec. 1, 2015 Shifting dynamics in the region are threatening to undermine Baku’s strategy at a time when the Azerbaijani regime is feeling insecure domestically.

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Russia, Ukraine Downplay Energy Standoff

Nov. 30, 2015 After power was cut off in Russian-controlled Crimea, the Kremlin suspended coal shipments to Ukraine, but both countries have downplayed the dispute.

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A New Crisis in Ukraine?

Nov. 26, 2015 Ukraine has engaged in a series of retaliatory gestures with Russia that may signal a coming crisis.

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Ukraine-Russia Tensions Rise

Nov. 25, 2015 The governments in Kiev and Moscow have been increasingly hostile since damage to electricity generators caused by unidentified individuals in southern Ukraine led to power outages in Crimea.

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Russia Responds to Turkey

Nov. 25, 2015 After the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkish forces, Russia has said it will start deploying air-defense systems in the area and is continuing to support Assad’s offensive on the Syria-Turkey border.

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The Strategy Behind a Downed Russian Plane

Nov. 25, 2015 Many are wondering what compelled the Turks to shoot down a Russian warplane they say entered Turkish air space.

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US-Russia Negotiations Worry Ukraine

Nov. 24, 2015 Ukraine wants to build a wedge between Washington and the Kremlin, as the two countries edge closer in their fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

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Turkey Downs Russian Warplane

Nov. 24, 2015 The Turkish military says it shot down a warplane on Tuesday, which reports claim was a Russian Su-24 fighter jet.

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Ukraine Claims Ceasefire Violations

Nov. 17, 2015 Kiev’s reports of spikes in ceasefire violations are likely meant to influence negotiations between Russia and the West.

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Renewed Fighting in Ukraine

Nov. 16, 2015 New fighting in eastern Ukraine has disturbed the relative calm of a ceasefire agreed to in September.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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