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NATO and the United States

Jan. 18, 2017 The president-elect has pointed out a reality many choose to ignore.

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Russian Blackmail and Donald Trump

Jan. 16, 2017 Was a memo by former MI6 operative Christopher Steele cover for something deeper?

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Trump, the Presidency and Policymaking

Jan. 11, 2017 What makes a president great isn’t what you think.

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Will Artificial Intelligence Solve the Demographic Problem?

Jan. 11, 2017 Advanced industrialized countries have declining populations and need a way to maintain productivity.

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Thinking About Propaganda

Jan. 10, 2017 Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead.

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Nationalism, the United States, and Cyclical Crises

Jan. 9, 2017 What is causing the rise in nationalism in the US?

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The CIA, Russia and the American Election

Jan. 9, 2017 The release of the CIA report may raise more questions than it answers.

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The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons

Jan. 4, 2017 The expectation of anonymity online has become extreme.

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Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict.

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Thinking About a US-China War

Jan. 3, 2017 A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

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Fact or Fiction: Is China’s Holding of US Debt a Source of Leverage?

Dec. 29, 2016 Beijing faces a number of constraints.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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In Defense of Nationalism

Dec. 21, 2016 The concept of nationalism in the modern world remains largely misunderstood.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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Trump’s Dilemma

Dec. 16, 2016 The president-elect’s ability to make changes depends on whether his support rises or falls.

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Obama’s Deep Dive Into Putin’s Intent

Dec. 13, 2016 Was Russia meddling in U.S. elections, or is it just politics?

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Pearl Harbor, 75 Years Later

Dec. 12, 2016 The attack redefined the United States.

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Trump Turns the Tables on China

Dec. 8, 2016 China must have access to U.S. consumer markets, and Donald Trump knows it.

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Trump’s Mad Dog

Dec. 7, 2016 It has become rare for top military officers to stand up to their civilian leaders.

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False News

Dec. 5, 2016 It has always existed, but never has been particularly effective.

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Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive.

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OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma

Dec. 1, 2016 OPEC countries have an agreement on production, but will they abide by it?

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Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics

Nov. 30, 2016 A new political dichotomy is replacing the old left vs. right divide.

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A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US

Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

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Islam and Terrorism

Nov. 28, 2016 Clarity in defining the enemy is essential to waging war.

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Fidel Castro

Nov. 28, 2016 His image as a revolutionary is built more on myth than reality.

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The Heart of the US-Mexico Borderland

Nov. 25, 2016 Looking at the evolution of Texas as a borderland reveals underlying tensions between the two countries.

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Russia, the United States and Donald Trump

Nov. 21, 2016 Russia and the U.S. know conflict in the future is possible, but neither is ready for it now.

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The National Security Adviser

Nov. 21, 2016 A first glimpse at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s world.

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Come the Revolution

Nov. 17, 2016 Winning the war leads to the inevitable problem of running the country.

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The City and the Nation

Nov. 17, 2016 Recent votes in the U.S. and U.K. reveal nationalism is evolving into different forms.

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The Electoral College

Nov. 14, 2016 It has attracted criticism, but the system was designed to hold the country together.

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Trump and the Future of US Foreign Policy

Nov. 11, 2016 Will the new president change the U.S.’ trajectory?

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The Power of Charisma

Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.

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How Important Is the US President – or Any Leader?

Nov. 10, 2016 Great leaders did not make history. History made them.

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President-Elect Donald Trump

Nov. 9, 2016 His victory proves he – and the class of voters who elected him – cannot be overlooked.

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Retaking Raqqa?

Nov. 8, 2016 Tough talk on a new offensive to take back the Islamic State’s de facto capital.

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The European Diaspora

Nov. 7, 2016 People who have emigrated from Europe share a common experience.

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Sticks and Stones

Nov. 3, 2016 The U.S. has faced some tough words from foreign leaders of late, but does it matter?

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The Origins of American Incivility and Fear

Nov. 1, 2016 U.S. history has left Americans unsettled even in prosperous times.

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The Reinvention of the Democratic and Republican Parties

Oct. 31, 2016 This election cycle has revealed some important changes in American politics.

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WTF?

Oct. 31, 2016 With one week until election day, the 2016 campaigns are still getting stranger.

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Wallonia Strikes at Canada

Oct. 25, 2016 How one regional parliament blocked a trade deal for the entire EU.

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Beyond the ‘Model T’ Web

Oct. 24, 2016 Last week’s cyberattack is an indicator of a significant vulnerability.

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The Roots of Hillary Clinton’s Foreign Policy

Oct. 18, 2016 The candidate has not shifted her strategy to respond to the changing reality in the international system.

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Biden Threatens to Threaten Russia

Oct. 17, 2016 The vice president’s recent warning caused a stir without saying much.

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Germany Warns of the Danger of War

Oct. 11, 2016 With lower stakes, the U.S. and Russia might take riskier actions.

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Is the 2016 Presidential Election Unique?

Oct. 11, 2016 A look back at past turbulent times reveals the U.S. has seen elections like this before.

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The Future of Mexico’s Economy

Oct. 6, 2016 The country’s long-term outlook remains strong, though it is facing some challenges in the near term.

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Why Russia Is Threatening the US in Syria

Oct. 4, 2016 Moscow’s ability to back up its rhetoric is questionable.

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The Use and Abuse of Referendums

Oct. 4, 2016 They may be democratic, but they rarely reveal the will of the people.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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How 2008 Changed Everything

Sept. 28, 2016 The year is appearing to be a defining moment in history.

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The Public and Private Lives of Candidates

Sept. 28, 2016 A president should have faced challenges in life to prepare for the task ahead.

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Wrestling Comes to the Presidency

Sept. 27, 2016 The candidates and the audience have thrown decorum by the wayside.

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Biden Demands the Impossible of Ukraine: End Corruption

Sept. 23, 2016 Sanctions against Russia aren’t working and the U.S. is forced to consider a new approach.

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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15 Years in Something They Call War

Sept. 19 2016 The U.S. has veered away from its original mission since going to war in Afghanistan after 9/11.

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Lehman Brothers and Germany: An Opera in Two Acts

Sept. 16, 2016 Repercussions of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt today.

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Why the Rise in Wages Is Great News and a Problem

Sept. 14, 2016 Seemingly positive economic news for the U.S. could actually portend a recession.

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The American President’s Power over NAFTA

Sept. 9, 2016 Presidential candidates have threatened to withdraw from the agreement, but would this really be in their power?

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Merkel Doesn’t Blame the Voter

Sept. 8, 2016 The establishment’s view that there is no crisis in the system is leading to surprising election results for mainstream parties.

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Conspiracy Theories

Sept. 5, 2016 They give order to the world and a sense that things are made to happen.

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The Euro-American Immigration Crisis

Sept. 6, 2016 Anti-immigration sentiments are growing stronger to the detriment of mainstream parties.

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Trump Goes to Mexico

Sept. 1, 2016 The shocking visit is a perfect zero-risk, high-reward maneuver for Trump.

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France and Germany Call to End Trade Talks

Aug. 31, 2016 The politics surrounding EU-U.S. free trade negotiations emphasize the divisions in the EU.

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Turkey and Iran’s Problems with Russia as an Ally

Aug. 25, 2016 In geopolitics, sometimes distance makes the heart grow fonder.

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Dismantling a Story on US Nukes

Aug. 19, 2016 A recent report that the U.S. moved nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania bears the hallmarks of disinformation.

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American Conservatism and Russia

Aug. 17, 2016 Once staunchly anti-Soviet, some conservatives are embracing Putin’s Russia.

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Nationalism, Technology, and the Olympics

Aug. 15, 2016 The Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals.

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Free Trade, Politics, and the Wealth of Nations

Aug. 8, 2016 The tide seems to be turning against free trade policies.

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Trump’s Nuclear Option

Aug. 8, 2016 How effective would a nuclear strike be against an enemy like the Islamic State?

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The NAFTA Debate

Aug. 4, 2016 Those for and against free trade are often motivated by political agendas.

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Why Mexico Belongs in North America

Aug. 3, 2016 Its geopolitical reality is not consistent with its categorization as a Latin American country.

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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Germany’s Dilemma Over EU Fiscal Rules

July 29, 2016 Berlin is trying to enforce the bloc’s rules while also maintaining cohesion between its members.

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NGOs and the Fallacy of Civil Society

July 28, 2016 Though called “non-governmental,” NGOs often receive significant government funding and may pursue political agendas.

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Not Much Is New in This Election

July 28, 2016 The impression that this election cycle is unique is a common feature in American politics.

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A Chinese Port in the US Storm

July 27, 2016 Leaders of the two countries have recently overlooked some disagreements to emphasize their common interests.

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American Exposure to the European Financial Crisis

July 14, 2016 While the U.S. at first seems fairly shielded from the Continent’s banking problems, a deeper look reveals substantial uncertainty and risk.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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A New Roadmap for Political Factions

July 5, 2016 “Nationalist” and “internationalist” might better describe current politics than “left” and “right.”

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Thoughts on July 4th

July 4, 2016 George Friedman reflects on the founding of the United States.

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The Slow Unraveling of NATO

June 22, 2016 As NATO members’ interests disperse, the alliance’s relevance wanes.

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The Problem with the State Department Dissenters

June 20, 2016 If the Assad regime was destroyed, what would take its place?

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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Facing Some Truths Behind the Florida Massacre

June 15, 2016 In confronting terrorism, the U.S. needs to decide whether it is at war and who the enemy is.

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The Trouble with Ending Wars

June 14, 2016 Today’s U.S. deployments in the Middle East look similar to those in 1972 Vietnam.

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US Negotiators Race Against Time

June 13, 2016 The Obama administration wants to get an agreement on Ukraine before the November elections.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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Nationalism Is Rising, Not Fascism

May 31, 2016 The claims of an increase in fascism in Europe and the U.S. derive from a misunderstanding of the term.

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A Moral Necessity

May 26, 2016 Focusing only on casualty numbers ignores the broader context behind the decision to drop the bombs.

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A Picture of American Empire

May 25, 2016 The U.S. wants to be liked, but knows it is feared.

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Vietnam, the US and the Centrality of Geopolitics

May 24, 2016 Based on ideology, Washington should not sell weapons to Hanoi, but it is.

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Turkey and the US Converging on Syria

May 23, 2016 The Americans are hoping the Turks will play a larger role in Syria.

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The Strategic Weakness of Targeted Killing

May 23, 2016 This strategy has done little to help the U.S. destroy terrorist organizations.

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Examining the Drop in US Productivity

May 13, 2016 It’s a key measure of the health of any economy.

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In Defense of Party Bosses

May 9, 2016 The primary system has produced two extremely disliked presidential candidates.

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Productivity in the US Continues to Decline

May 5, 2016 Communication may be supplanting actual work.

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The Heirs of Osama bin Laden

May 3, 2016 Bin Laden was killed five years ago, but transnational jihadism lives on.

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Trump on Foreign Policy

April 28, 2016 The candidate’s recent remarks opposed not just a specific doctrine, but the idea of doctrines altogether.

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Obama and the European Union

April 27, 2016 Keeping the EU together is in the United States’ interest, but it doesn’t have the means or ability to do so.

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American Muslims and the Islamic State

April 18, 2016 U.S. Muslims present a major challenge to IS.

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Journey to Europe: Thinking About Gagarin

April 13, 2016 The Cold War space race was as much about competition as it was self-doubt.

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How Mexico Has Eased the Burden of Falling Oil Prices

April 7, 2016 Among major Latin American oil producers, Mexico has best dealt with the plummeting prices.

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Lincoln, Brexit and Geopolitics

April 7, 2016 Understanding a nation’s strategy requires an unbiased view of its objectives and constraints.

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The US and Russia Bargain Over Eastern Europe

March 31, 2016 But recent bilateral talks will not become another Yalta Conference.

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The Political Nature of Strong Armies

March 29, 2016 A military’s role goes beyond fighting wars.

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The Link Between Syria and Ukraine

March 24, 2016 The fact that the two conflicts have become intertwined is not a coincidence.

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The US Obsession with Cuba

March 22, 2016 Cuba’s location means more to the United States than any government in Havana.

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The Pitfalls of US Power

March 21, 2016 Applying a balance of power strategy is easier in the abstract than in practice.

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The Week: Elections, Russians and Missiles

March 19, 2016 The U.S. presidential candidates grabbed headlines, while events in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula also took center stage.

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Hyper-Democracy and the Rise of Trump

March 17, 2016 Primary elections lend weight to political extremes.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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Shaping a Presidential Legacy

March 11, 2016 The limits of Obama’s office played a significant role in creating his ‘doctrine.’

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The Ebb and Flow of US Immigration

March 9, 2016 Current hostility toward Mexican immigrants reflects a historical trend.

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The US and Israel Drift Apart

March 9, 2016 The two nations’ strong relationship has faded along with the Cold War strategies that brought them together in the first place.

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Nancy and Ronald Reagan

March 8, 2016 The complexity of power and family.

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Apple and the FBI: A Tale of Mutual Incomprehension

March 4, 2016 The debate between national security interests and privacy rights is more complex than either side admits.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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What It Means to Be Moderate

March 1, 2016 Can an essentially human trait describe a political stance?

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The B-21: There Has to Be a Better Way to Drop a Bomb

Feb. 29, 2016 The U.S. military is taking a $50 billion gamble on predicting the future of warfare.

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Mexico’s Economic Dynamism

Feb. 24, 2016 The Mexican economy has persevered despite a downturn in other major global economies.

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What Isn’t Being Said About Guantanamo

Feb. 24, 2016 The transformation of warfare raises difficult questions when it comes to international laws written for a bygone time.

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The Use and Abuse of Law

Feb. 23, 2016 We examine the relationship between law and power in geopolitics.

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Papal Politics in Mexico

Feb. 16, 2016 Despite its Catholic majority, the country has a rocky history with the Vatican.

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The US, the EU and NATO

Feb. 15, 2016 The United States worries that divisions among EU member states could affect its relationship with the Continent.

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The Crisis of Polling

Feb. 8, 2016 Polls are now less reliable in predicting the outcome of elections, as we witnessed after the recent Iowa caucuses.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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Senior Russian Official Warns of American Plot

Jan. 27, 2016 The Kremlin wants to rally the public against a common enemy.

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Thoughts on Corruption

Jan. 22, 2016 While interpretations vary, the definition of corruption ultimately seems to rest on one’s vision of the human soul.

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Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did the markets take so long to start falling and why did they panic yesterday?

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The Philippines’ Role in US Strategy

Jan. 19, 2016 American basing in the Philippines has implications beyond the South China Sea.

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Israel’s Reaction to Iran Without Sanctions

Jan. 18, 2016 Despite strong rhetoric against the U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal, Israel is as safe as it has ever been.

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The US-Iranian Non-Crisis

Jan. 14, 2016 Despite expectations, both governments quickly and amicably settled a potentially volatile situation.

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Thinking About the American Presidency

Dec. 30, 2015 To understand the American political system, it is important to grasp how little power the American president has at his disposal.

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Washington’s Role in Turkey-Iraq Dispute

Dec. 17, 2015 After Turkey deployed unauthorized troops to a training camp in Iraq, the U.S. has been trying to calm tensions between two countries.

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US Strategy Towards Russia and Turkey

Dec. 15, 2015 The U.S. is holding simultaneous high-level talks in Turkey and Russia, however, the negotiations will highlight the diverging priorities of the Americans and the regional powers in the Middle East.

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US Special Operations Forces in Iraq

Dec. 2, 2015 U.S. deployment of special operations forces in Iraq is bound to create problems within the anti-Islamic State camp, including the Iraqi government.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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