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North America

The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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For North Korean Peace, Conditions May Apply

Dec. 14, 2017 Mixed signals from the White House don’t change its options for resolving the crisis.

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What Is Bitcoin?

Dec. 11, 2017 To know how it will affect the economy, we need to be able to define it.

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Evaluating the State of the US Navy

Dec. 7, 2017 What do the recent collisions involving U.S. warships in the Western Pacific say about U.S. naval power?

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In North Korea, Is the United States’ Loss Russia’s Gain?

Dec. 7, 2017 Moscow’s proposal to resolve the brewing conflict ignores basic facts on the ground.

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Why the Next US Recession Could Be Worse Than the Last

Nov. 27, 2017 Inequality is reaching new heights.

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Thanksgiving: A Monument to a Nation

Nov. 23, 2017 Here’s to a holiday that helped rescue the U.S. from its own self-destruction.

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War, Nuclear War and the Law

Nov. 20, 2017 Senators are asking the right questions but of the wrong people.

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International Organizations Are Tools for Powerful Countries

Nov. 15, 2017 Multilateral groupings are usually impotent, so why are there so many of them?

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A US Recession: Will Economic Change Mean Political Change?

Nov. 15, 2017 A recession that makes life more difficult for the poor but not for the elite is inherently political.

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The US Narrows Its Focus in Southeast Asia

Nov. 14, 2017 Washington isn’t about to abandon the region.

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In the Ukraine Peace Process, Kiev Makes Itself Heard

Nov. 13, 2017 Kiev’s errant behavior is proof that negotiations are progressing.

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What Trump Really Said in South Korea

Nov. 9, 2017 Are these the words before the war, or more of the same?

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Containing China on the Open Seas

Nov. 2, 2017 A defense cooperation initiative between Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. is being resurrected, this time on firmer grounds.

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Iran Nuclear Deal: The Limits of Diplomatic Niceties

Nov. 1, 2017 Public statements don’t guarantee a change in policy.

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Kennedy’s Death and the World of Conspiracy Theories

Nov. 1, 2017 The main threat to the Constitution is the growing conviction that the government can’t be trusted.

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First Cut at a Theory

Oct. 31, 2017 Analysis should begin with a framework.

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Testing Washington’s Commitment to Asia

Oct. 30, 2017 Until the United States decides what it will do about North Korea, its policy in Asia will remain hostage to Pyongyang.

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Playing the Part in NAFTA Negotiations

Oct. 23, 2017 There’s a lot of rhetoric around the talks, but this is just one act in the theater of negotiations

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North Korea’s Next Test

Oct. 12, 2017 If Kim has a deliverable nuke and believes an attack is imminent, now would be the time for another test.

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Manners and Political Life

Oct. 11, 2017 Restraint in public life is not a foundation of civilization. It is civilization.

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North Korea: Where China Can Beat the US

Oct. 10, 2017 To Beijing’s benefit, the current standoff indirectly involves Taiwan, much like the Korean War did.

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Can US Relations Stand the Test of Time?

Oct. 6, 2017 The logic that bound the U.S. to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan no longer exists.

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Mexico: One Country, Two Economies

Oct. 5, 2017 The country’s status as an up-and-coming economic power raises some questions that can be answered by geopolitics.

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Equifax and Our Broken Computer Industry

Oct. 2, 2017 The world has come to depend on systems designed to fail.

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An End in Sight for Ukraine … Maybe

Sept. 28, 2017 There are early indicators that Russia and the U.S. may settle for neutrality in Kiev right now.

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South Korea and the Wisdom of War

Sept. 27, 2017 It’s unclear just how much damage North Korea can inflict on Seoul.

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South Korea: The Wild Card in the Korean Crisis

Sept. 25, 2017 It’s time to review why the war hasn’t materialized.

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The Constraints That Define Donald Trump

Sept. 20, 2017 The president’s need to expand his support base took him down a path many didn’t expect.

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The US Faces Unsavory Choices in the Korean Peninsula

Sept. 19, 2017 In its attempt to deal with the threat from Pyongyang, the U.S. is facing another obstacle: South Korea.

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Against the US, Pakistan Stands Its Ground

Sept. 18, 2017 Its defiance probably won’t amount to much though.

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North Korea Calls Washington’s Bluff

Sept. 5, 2017 Lost in most reporting is how a nuclear North Korea would reshape the balance of power in the region. (Updated.)

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Ballistic Missile Defense Is a Tool, Not a Strategy

Sept. 14, 2017 Assurances of protection against North Korea’s arsenal are too flimsy to form the bedrock of any deterrence strategy.

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In Canada, Deep Divisions Brilliantly Managed

Sept. 13, 2017 The country has been able to withstand differences that would tear other countries apart.

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Malaysia as a Means to Different Ends

Sept. 13, 2017 This fractured country is used to pry China and the U.S. away from their regional interests.

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Remembering the Fear 16 Years Later

Sept. 11, 2017 America is still living with the terror of 9/11, no matter how much we try to put it behind us.

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In Sweden, an Ethical Dilemma of Nuclear Proportions

Sept. 8, 2017 By signing a new nuclear weapons ban, Stockholm would be giving up U.S. and NATO security cooperation.

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Syria’s Shattered Future

Sept. 7, 2017 The U.S. and Russia both have hopes for Syria’s future. They’re both likely to be disappointed.

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The World Outside of North Korea

Sept. 6, 2017 While everyone watches North Korea, these are the stories that caught our attention.

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Promises and Partnerships in the South China Sea

Aug. 31, 2017 Between China and the U.S., the Philippines has little room to act in its self-interest.

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North Korea Negotiations Aren’t Dead Yet

Aug. 30, 2017 Monday’s missile test, and the responses to it, suggest the sides haven’t stopped talking.

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The US, North Korea, and the Lesser of Two Evils

Aug. 28, 2017 Donald Trump is approaching one of the most important decisions he will make in his presidency.

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In North Korea, Perception Is Reality

Aug. 28, 2017 We can’t assume Pyongyang and Washington understand exactly what the other wants and fears.

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What a Korean Agreement May Look Like

Aug. 24, 2017 It is easier to hold talks than to reach a settlement. And it is easier to reach a settlement than to honor it.

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Delaying the Inevitable in Afghanistan

Aug. 22, 2017 With the way things are going, the country will unravel with or without a U.S. military presence.

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Presidential Constraints

Aug. 21, 2017 The limits on a leader’s power – and thus a country’s options – aren’t only external.

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Guadalcanal: The Battle That Sealed the Pacific War

Aug. 16, 2017 Midway closed the door on any hope of Japanese victory, but Guadalcanal locked it.

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What We Talk About When We Talk About North Korea

Aug. 16, 2017 Washington and Pyongyang have made their intentions known.

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US Power: A Finite Resource

Aug. 14, 2017 With a number of issues at its doorstep, the U.S. may have to prioritize some interests over others.

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Perspectives on the North Korea Crisis

Aug. 10, 2017 What happens in North Korea implicates all of East Asia.

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North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations

Aug. 9, 2017 North Korea exposes itself to more risk by obtaining nuclear weapons, but it increases its leverage by being close.

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One Way Russia Can Retaliate Against US Sanctions

Aug. 7, 2017 Moscow’s energy supplies, especially those it sends to Europe, may be its best option to respond to U.S. pressure.

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Trump’s Emerging Afghan Policy

Aug. 7, 2017 Like the one before it, the current U.S. administration is finding it difficult to end the war.

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The Islamic State: Lessons in Crossing Boundaries

Aug. 4, 2017 The group is attracting the sort of attention that will make continued success hard to come by.

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Toward a Geopolitics of the Arctic

Aug. 3, 2017 There are many misconceptions about the region, its potential and its impact on Russia.

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The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons

Aug. 2, 2017 It’s hard to build a national policy on the assumption that these weapons moderate the depraved.

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US-China Trade Talks Collapse and It’s North Korea’s Fault

July 31, 2017 Washington has asked for Beijing’s help to restrain Pyongyang, but so far China has produced few results.

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A New Phase in US-China Relations

July 31, 2017 The threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has shifted dynamics between the world’s two largest economies.

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The Axis of the Sanctioned

July 28, 2017 Sanctions can achieve little on their own and might actually make a situation worse.

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A Different Kind of Reset in Russia

July 26, 2017 Whatever the intent of the propaganda and the hacks, the Russians are back where they started.

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The EU: Powerless Over Russian Sanctions

July 26, 2017 The bloc’s member states can’t agree on how to approach expanded U.S. sanctions against Moscow.

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

July 24, 2017 In all economic statistics, there is an inherent margin of error, which makes economic forecasting difficult.

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Hard Power Is Still King

July 20, 2017 In geopolitics, nice gestures and money don’t make the world turn.

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Geopolitical Risk, Business, and Investment

July 17, 2017 Geography is an important element of business.

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The Trump Presidency, 6 Months In

July 17, 2017 Trump has failed to increase his support beyond his base.

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North Korea and the American Dilemma

July 10, 2017 Pyongyang has successfully portrayed itself as unpredictable and dangerous.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A Different Ever Closer Union

July 5, 2017 The U.S. and Poland have similar interests, particularly when it comes to Russia.

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Hostages to History at the G-20 Summit

July 5, 2017 Leaders overstate how much their relationships define national agendas.

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Disagreement: An American Tradition

July 4, 2017 These are hardly the most trying times in U.S. history.

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July 3, 1863: The Birth of a Nation

July 3, 2017 The United States didn’t fully form until after the Civil War, which turned at the Battle of Gettysburg.

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South Korea Makes Time, Not War

June 29, 2017 Seoul will push the U.S. to exhaust all options before it will risk everything on war.

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Calling China’s Bluff on North Korea

June 21, 2017 The U.S. is telling the Chinese that the time to act is now.

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US Oil Production Makes Waves

June 19, 2017 While oil prices are going down, U.S. oil exports are going up.

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Negotiating With North Korea

June 19, 2017 With the U.S. and North Korea, neither side seems capable of capitulating.

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The US Is Due for a Recession

June 16, 2017 Rate hikes prove that the Fed understands the economic patterns of the past 70 years.

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Shale Oil: Another Layer of US Power

June 15, 2017 Geopolitics is rarely a zero-sum game. But in the case of shale oil, it is.

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Russia: Hacking Away at US Power

June 15, 2017 Moscow wants to sow seeds of domestic political turmoil in the United States.

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A Coalition of the Less-Than-Willing

June 14, 2017 The U.S. convinced Arab governments to work together against jihadism. Now it needs to focus them.

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Washington: The Philippines’ Inescapable Ally

June 13, 2017 The U.S. is one of the few countries that can help break the siege of Marawi.

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Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

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What the Paris Agreement Doesn’t Say About US Power

June 7, 2017 Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal doesn’t indicate a waning U.S. presence in the world.

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The Devil in the Details of a Korean War

June 1, 2017 North Korea’s conventional military capabilities, not its nuclear program, will determine what a potential conflict would look like.

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Managing Expectations for NAFTA

June 1, 2017 A few months isn’t enough time for a serious renegotiation of a major trade deal.

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Different Visions for Europe

May 31, 2017 The U.S. vision to contain Russia through NATO is inadvertently pulling Europe apart.

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The US Strategy of Annihilation and Humiliation

May 31, 2017 The U.S. plans to use these tactics to defeat the Islamic State and radical Islamism.

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What Lies Beneath the Surface in East Asia

May 25, 2017 Two seemingly unrelated events will affect the regional balance of power.

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The World That World War II Built

May 24, 2017 A handful of battles from 1942 to 1943 redefined the global order as we knew it.

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In North Korea, the US Advertises Its Intentions

May 23, 2017 There are signs that military action on the Korean Peninsula is increasingly likely.

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The Stability of Trump’s Foreign Policy

May 22, 2017 The international posture of the U.S. is even harder to change than its health care system.

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Guarding the Guards at the CIA

May 22, 2017 Trusting an agency to tell the lies it must is a tough enough sell in a democracy.

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The Dispensability of Allies

May 17, 2017 Trump brings unpredictability to his talks with Middle East leaders, but some things we already know.

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The Latest Trump Crisis

May 17, 2017 Washington is running as the Founders intended. In the short term, that’s bad for the country.

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Don’t Forget About the Islamic State

May 15, 2017 The U.S. may be preoccupied with North Korea, but the conflict in Syria has not gone away.

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Cyberattacks: Breaking Into a Broken System

May 15, 2017 A system whose security depends on an absence of carelessness is a system designed to fail.

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Tackling a Change in US Foreign Policy Head On

May 11, 2017 A departure in Middle East policy may compel us to adjust our forecast.

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North Korea Crisis: Neither Gone nor Forgotten

May 10, 2017 Secret diplomacy works best when it’s done quietly.

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Why the US Cares About Somalia

May 10, 2017 The country is a test case for Washington’s balance-of-power strategy.

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Warren Buffett and Geopolitical Forecasting

May 8, 2017 Buffett’s approach to investing shares similarities with our forecasting model.

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The US’ Old Friend in Southeast Asia

May 5, 2017 Thailand and the United States have long shared similar interests in the region.

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The Implications of US Debt

May 4, 2017 The U.S. has more flexibility with its debt than many other countries have.

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The Philippines in Play

May 4, 2017 President Rodrigo Duterte and his nation are being courted by two major powers.

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The Limits of Expertise

May 3, 2017 Beyond expertise, waging war requires wisdom.

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For US, Shared Interests Trump Moral Purity

May 3, 2017 Donald Trump is not crazy for wanting to meet with Kim Jong Un or Rodrigo Duterte.

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South America’s Strategic Value to Mexico

April 27, 2017 Mexico prioritizes relationships with South American countries that help support its livelihood and mitigate external threats.

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The New McCarthyism

April 27, 2017 Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s tactics are now being used against another group.

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An American Recession and the World

April 26, 2017 The U.S. appears to be on the cusp of a cyclical recession.

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The Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons

April 24, 2017 Recent developments in North Korea have placed a spotlight on these weapons.

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The US-Saudi Alliance

April 21, 2017 The two countries need each other, but their interests are diverging.

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What a War with North Korea Looks Like

April 19, 2017 None of the options, apart from de-escalation, are attractive.

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Reality Descends Upon the White House

April 14, 2017 Constraints have provoked significant changes in Trump administration policies.

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The United States, Syria and Russia

April 12, 2017 A strategy toward the Middle East requires more than short-term tactical moves.

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Trump and Xi Take Center Stage

April 10, 2017 The two leaders had a lot to talk about.

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Irresistible Constraints

April 10, 2017 What a president wants and what he must do are two different things.

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Chemicals and Cruise Missiles in Syria

April 7, 2017 The American action reveals an important observation about U.S. strategy.

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China, North Korea and a Useful Coincidence

April 7, 2017 Are the North Koreans approaching the red line or bluffing?

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Trump’s Dilemma

March 29, 2017 President Donald Trump’s ability to make changes depends on whether his support rises or falls.

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Decision-Making and Reality of the Presidency

March 27, 2017 The president can achieve little on his own.

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Coalitions and the Battle Against Islamic State

March 24, 2017 Optics cannot overcome the will to fight.

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Shocking News: China Matters More than NATO

March 23, 2017 A meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is more important than a NATO summit.

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Free Trade and the G-20

March 20, 2017 Between Machiavelli and Ricardo, one of them had a bad weekend.

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The Deep State

March 15, 2017 It does in fact exist, but not how you think.

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The State of US State Exports

March 13, 2017 When U.S. trade statistics are broken down by state, the job of designing national economic policy becomes complex.

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A Busy Day in Geopolitics

March 8, 2017 Massive geopolitical upheavals often fly under the radar.

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Letter from Genoa

March 7, 2017 The new administration in Washington has some questioning the U.S.’ place in the world.

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Water and Geopolitical Imperatives

March 6, 2017 Access to and control over water is a strategic imperative that has been the impetus of conflict throughout history.

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The US, Turkey and the Kurds

March 3, 2017 Ankara is challenging Washington’s approach to the Kurds.

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Nationalism and Liberal Democracy

March 1, 2017 Tension between nationalism and liberal democracy is not what is haunting us today.

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The Evolving NATO Alliance

Feb. 27, 2017 The US has asked for help before and hasn’t gotten it.

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The War Between the President and the Press

Feb. 27, 2017 Both sides are helping each other, whether they know it or not.

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The Philippines Criticizes China

Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines’ opening to China is over.

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Canada’s Economic Dependence on the US

Feb. 23, 2017 Despite a heavy reliance on its southern neighbor, Canada may benefit from increased protectionism in the U.S.

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NATO, the Middle East and Eastern Europe

Feb. 22, 2017 NATO’s mission has shifted, but are its members willing to meet the new challenges?

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Turkey and the United States Groping to Accommodation

Feb. 21, 2017 Despite past differences, the two countries are getting closer.

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Turning From Flynn to the Russians

Feb. 16, 2017 If all this is true, the Russians have seen a brilliant plan blow up in their faces.

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Technocracy, Liberal Democracy and the Division of Our Time

Feb. 15, 2017 The idea that expertise ought to guide our political life is at odds with the principle of national self-determination.

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The Flynn Drama

Feb. 14, 2017 The reasons being given for his resignation are still unclear.

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The US Is Not Abandoning Asia

Feb 13, 2017 A look at US military and investment positions in the Asia-Pacific region.

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One China, Two Koreas

Feb. 13, 2017 The issues dividing the U.S. and China go beyond the “one China” policy.

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Exploring the US-Mexico Trade Relationship, Part 2

Feb. 9, 2017 Despite Trump’s tough talk on Mexico, U.S. states have a different imperative.

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Trump’s Conventional Foreign Policy

Feb. 9, 2017 All the uproar in recent weeks has had little to do with foreign policy.

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US Strategies in the Middle East

Feb. 8, 2017 Washington must choose sides.

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Ukraine, Russia and Recent Fighting

Feb. 8, 2017 What flare-ups in eastern Ukraine tell us about the conflict.

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US Policy on South China Sea Hasn’t Changed

Feb. 7, 2017 Gen. James Mattis’ recent comments made waves in China, but they do not represent a shift in policy.

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Germany Buys Time from China

Feb. 6, 2017 The news that China has become Germany’s largest trading partner merits a closer look.

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The Importance of Australia to the United States

Feb. 3, 2017 Personalities aside, both countries need each other.

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Exploring the US-Mexico Trade Relationship

Feb. 2, 2017 With the future of NAFTA potentially in jeopardy, the time has come to take a closer look at the significance of this relationship and the possible effects of change.

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Iran’s Economy Is Bouncing Back

Feb. 2, 2017 A year after the U.S. agreed to lift sanctions, Iran is recovering its regional influence.

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Immigration Chaos

Feb. 1, 2017 As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk.

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Game Time

Jan. 30, 2017 Will Trump be able to accomplish his agenda?

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Russia-US Relations in 2017

Jan. 30, 2017 The recent phone call between Trump and Putin has set off speculation over where the two countries’ relationship is headed.

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The Utility of Torture

Jan. 27, 2017 In many cases, there are better ways to get intelligence.

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Thinking Through Trump’s Views on the Islamic State

Jan. 25, 2017 The president has said he will eradicate IS, but how might this happen?

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‘Alternative Facts’

Jan. 25, 2017 Here’s how to avoid them.

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NATO and the United States

Jan. 18, 2017 The president-elect has pointed out a reality many choose to ignore.

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Russian Blackmail and Donald Trump

Jan. 16, 2017 Was a memo by former MI6 operative Christopher Steele cover for something deeper?

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Trump, the Presidency and Policymaking

Jan. 11, 2017 What makes a president great isn’t what you think.

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Will Artificial Intelligence Solve the Demographic Problem?

Jan. 11, 2017 Advanced industrialized countries have declining populations and need a way to maintain productivity.

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Thinking About Propaganda

Jan. 10, 2017 Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead.

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Nationalism, the United States, and Cyclical Crises

Jan. 9, 2017 What is causing the rise in nationalism in the US?

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The CIA, Russia and the American Election

Jan. 9, 2017 The release of the CIA report may raise more questions than it answers.

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The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons

Jan. 4, 2017 The expectation of anonymity online has become extreme.

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Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict.

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Thinking About a US-China War

Jan. 3, 2017 A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

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Fact or Fiction: Is China’s Holding of US Debt a Source of Leverage?

Dec. 29, 2016 Beijing faces a number of constraints.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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In Defense of Nationalism

Dec. 21, 2016 The concept of nationalism in the modern world remains largely misunderstood.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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Trump’s Dilemma

Dec. 16, 2016 The president-elect’s ability to make changes depends on whether his support rises or falls.

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Obama’s Deep Dive Into Putin’s Intent

Dec. 13, 2016 Was Russia meddling in U.S. elections, or is it just politics?

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Pearl Harbor, 75 Years Later

Dec. 12, 2016 The attack redefined the United States.

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Trump Turns the Tables on China

Dec. 8, 2016 China must have access to U.S. consumer markets, and Donald Trump knows it.

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Trump’s Mad Dog

Dec. 7, 2016 It has become rare for top military officers to stand up to their civilian leaders.

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False News

Dec. 5, 2016 It has always existed, but never has been particularly effective.

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Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive.

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OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma

Dec. 1, 2016 OPEC countries have an agreement on production, but will they abide by it?

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Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics

Nov. 30, 2016 A new political dichotomy is replacing the old left vs. right divide.

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A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US

Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

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Islam and Terrorism

Nov. 28, 2016 Clarity in defining the enemy is essential to waging war.

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Fidel Castro

Nov. 28, 2016 His image as a revolutionary is built more on myth than reality.

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The Heart of the US-Mexico Borderland

Nov. 25, 2016 Looking at the evolution of Texas as a borderland reveals underlying tensions between the two countries.

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Russia, the United States and Donald Trump

Nov. 21, 2016 Russia and the U.S. know conflict in the future is possible, but neither is ready for it now.

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The National Security Adviser

Nov. 21, 2016 A first glimpse at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s world.

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Come the Revolution

Nov. 17, 2016 Winning the war leads to the inevitable problem of running the country.

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The City and the Nation

Nov. 17, 2016 Recent votes in the U.S. and U.K. reveal nationalism is evolving into different forms.

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The Electoral College

Nov. 14, 2016 It has attracted criticism, but the system was designed to hold the country together.

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Trump and the Future of US Foreign Policy

Nov. 11, 2016 Will the new president change the U.S.’ trajectory?

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The Power of Charisma

Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.

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How Important Is the US President – or Any Leader?

Nov. 10, 2016 Great leaders did not make history. History made them.

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President-Elect Donald Trump

Nov. 9, 2016 His victory proves he – and the class of voters who elected him – cannot be overlooked.

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Retaking Raqqa?

Nov. 8, 2016 Tough talk on a new offensive to take back the Islamic State’s de facto capital.

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The European Diaspora

Nov. 7, 2016 People who have emigrated from Europe share a common experience.

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Sticks and Stones

Nov. 3, 2016 The U.S. has faced some tough words from foreign leaders of late, but does it matter?

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The Origins of American Incivility and Fear

Nov. 1, 2016 U.S. history has left Americans unsettled even in prosperous times.

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The Reinvention of the Democratic and Republican Parties

Oct. 31, 2016 This election cycle has revealed some important changes in American politics.

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WTF?

Oct. 31, 2016 With one week until election day, the 2016 campaigns are still getting stranger.

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Wallonia Strikes at Canada

Oct. 25, 2016 How one regional parliament blocked a trade deal for the entire EU.

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Beyond the ‘Model T’ Web

Oct. 24, 2016 Last week’s cyberattack is an indicator of a significant vulnerability.

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The Roots of Hillary Clinton’s Foreign Policy

Oct. 18, 2016 The candidate has not shifted her strategy to respond to the changing reality in the international system.

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Biden Threatens to Threaten Russia

Oct. 17, 2016 The vice president’s recent warning caused a stir without saying much.

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Germany Warns of the Danger of War

Oct. 11, 2016 With lower stakes, the U.S. and Russia might take riskier actions.

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Is the 2016 Presidential Election Unique?

Oct. 11, 2016 A look back at past turbulent times reveals the U.S. has seen elections like this before.

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The Future of Mexico’s Economy

Oct. 6, 2016 The country’s long-term outlook remains strong, though it is facing some challenges in the near term.

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Why Russia Is Threatening the US in Syria

Oct. 4, 2016 Moscow’s ability to back up its rhetoric is questionable.

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The Use and Abuse of Referendums

Oct. 4, 2016 They may be democratic, but they rarely reveal the will of the people.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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How 2008 Changed Everything

Sept. 28, 2016 The year is appearing to be a defining moment in history.

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The Public and Private Lives of Candidates

Sept. 28, 2016 A president should have faced challenges in life to prepare for the task ahead.

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Wrestling Comes to the Presidency

Sept. 27, 2016 The candidates and the audience have thrown decorum by the wayside.

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Biden Demands the Impossible of Ukraine: End Corruption

Sept. 23, 2016 Sanctions against Russia aren’t working and the U.S. is forced to consider a new approach.

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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15 Years in Something They Call War

Sept. 19 2016 The U.S. has veered away from its original mission since going to war in Afghanistan after 9/11.

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Lehman Brothers and Germany: An Opera in Two Acts

Sept. 16, 2016 Repercussions of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt today.

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Why the Rise in Wages Is Great News and a Problem

Sept. 14, 2016 Seemingly positive economic news for the U.S. could actually portend a recession.

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The American President’s Power over NAFTA

Sept. 9, 2016 Presidential candidates have threatened to withdraw from the agreement, but would this really be in their power?

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Merkel Doesn’t Blame the Voter

Sept. 8, 2016 The establishment’s view that there is no crisis in the system is leading to surprising election results for mainstream parties.

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Conspiracy Theories

Sept. 5, 2016 They give order to the world and a sense that things are made to happen.

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The Euro-American Immigration Crisis

Sept. 6, 2016 Anti-immigration sentiments are growing stronger to the detriment of mainstream parties.

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Trump Goes to Mexico

Sept. 1, 2016 The shocking visit is a perfect zero-risk, high-reward maneuver for Trump.

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France and Germany Call to End Trade Talks

Aug. 31, 2016 The politics surrounding EU-U.S. free trade negotiations emphasize the divisions in the EU.

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Turkey and Iran’s Problems with Russia as an Ally

Aug. 25, 2016 In geopolitics, sometimes distance makes the heart grow fonder.

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Dismantling a Story on US Nukes

Aug. 19, 2016 A recent report that the U.S. moved nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania bears the hallmarks of disinformation.

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American Conservatism and Russia

Aug. 17, 2016 Once staunchly anti-Soviet, some conservatives are embracing Putin’s Russia.

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Nationalism, Technology, and the Olympics

Aug. 15, 2016 The Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals.

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Free Trade, Politics, and the Wealth of Nations

Aug. 8, 2016 The tide seems to be turning against free trade policies.

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Trump’s Nuclear Option

Aug. 8, 2016 How effective would a nuclear strike be against an enemy like the Islamic State?

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The NAFTA Debate

Aug. 4, 2016 Those for and against free trade are often motivated by political agendas.

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Why Mexico Belongs in North America

Aug. 3, 2016 Its geopolitical reality is not consistent with its categorization as a Latin American country.

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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Germany’s Dilemma Over EU Fiscal Rules

July 29, 2016 Berlin is trying to enforce the bloc’s rules while also maintaining cohesion between its members.

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NGOs and the Fallacy of Civil Society

July 28, 2016 Though called “non-governmental,” NGOs often receive significant government funding and may pursue political agendas.

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Not Much Is New in This Election

July 28, 2016 The impression that this election cycle is unique is a common feature in American politics.

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A Chinese Port in the US Storm

July 27, 2016 Leaders of the two countries have recently overlooked some disagreements to emphasize their common interests.

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American Exposure to the European Financial Crisis

July 14, 2016 While the U.S. at first seems fairly shielded from the Continent’s banking problems, a deeper look reveals substantial uncertainty and risk.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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A New Roadmap for Political Factions

July 5, 2016 “Nationalist” and “internationalist” might better describe current politics than “left” and “right.”

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Thoughts on July 4th

July 4, 2016 George Friedman reflects on the founding of the United States.

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The Slow Unraveling of NATO

June 22, 2016 As NATO members’ interests disperse, the alliance’s relevance wanes.

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The Problem with the State Department Dissenters

June 20, 2016 If the Assad regime was destroyed, what would take its place?

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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Facing Some Truths Behind the Florida Massacre

June 15, 2016 In confronting terrorism, the U.S. needs to decide whether it is at war and who the enemy is.

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The Trouble with Ending Wars

June 14, 2016 Today’s U.S. deployments in the Middle East look similar to those in 1972 Vietnam.

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US Negotiators Race Against Time

June 13, 2016 The Obama administration wants to get an agreement on Ukraine before the November elections.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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Nationalism Is Rising, Not Fascism

May 31, 2016 The claims of an increase in fascism in Europe and the U.S. derive from a misunderstanding of the term.

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A Moral Necessity

May 26, 2016 Focusing only on casualty numbers ignores the broader context behind the decision to drop the bombs.

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A Picture of American Empire

May 25, 2016 The U.S. wants to be liked, but knows it is feared.

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Vietnam, the US and the Centrality of Geopolitics

May 24, 2016 Based on ideology, Washington should not sell weapons to Hanoi, but it is.

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Turkey and the US Converging on Syria

May 23, 2016 The Americans are hoping the Turks will play a larger role in Syria.

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The Strategic Weakness of Targeted Killing

May 23, 2016 This strategy has done little to help the U.S. destroy terrorist organizations.

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Examining the Drop in US Productivity

May 13, 2016 It’s a key measure of the health of any economy.

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In Defense of Party Bosses

May 9, 2016 The primary system has produced two extremely disliked presidential candidates.

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Productivity in the US Continues to Decline

May 5, 2016 Communication may be supplanting actual work.

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The Heirs of Osama bin Laden

May 3, 2016 Bin Laden was killed five years ago, but transnational jihadism lives on.

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Trump on Foreign Policy

April 28, 2016 The candidate’s recent remarks opposed not just a specific doctrine, but the idea of doctrines altogether.

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Obama and the European Union

April 27, 2016 Keeping the EU together is in the United States’ interest, but it doesn’t have the means or ability to do so.

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American Muslims and the Islamic State

April 18, 2016 U.S. Muslims present a major challenge to IS.

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Journey to Europe: Thinking About Gagarin

April 13, 2016 The Cold War space race was as much about competition as it was self-doubt.

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How Mexico Has Eased the Burden of Falling Oil Prices

April 7, 2016 Among major Latin American oil producers, Mexico has best dealt with the plummeting prices.

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Lincoln, Brexit and Geopolitics

April 7, 2016 Understanding a nation’s strategy requires an unbiased view of its objectives and constraints.

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The US and Russia Bargain Over Eastern Europe

March 31, 2016 But recent bilateral talks will not become another Yalta Conference.

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The Political Nature of Strong Armies

March 29, 2016 A military’s role goes beyond fighting wars.

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The Link Between Syria and Ukraine

March 24, 2016 The fact that the two conflicts have become intertwined is not a coincidence.

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The US Obsession with Cuba

March 22, 2016 Cuba’s location means more to the United States than any government in Havana.

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The Pitfalls of US Power

March 21, 2016 Applying a balance of power strategy is easier in the abstract than in practice.

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The Week: Elections, Russians and Missiles

March 19, 2016 The U.S. presidential candidates grabbed headlines, while events in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula also took center stage.

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Hyper-Democracy and the Rise of Trump

March 17, 2016 Primary elections lend weight to political extremes.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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Shaping a Presidential Legacy

March 11, 2016 The limits of Obama’s office played a significant role in creating his ‘doctrine.’

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The Ebb and Flow of US Immigration

March 9, 2016 Current hostility toward Mexican immigrants reflects a historical trend.

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The US and Israel Drift Apart

March 9, 2016 The two nations’ strong relationship has faded along with the Cold War strategies that brought them together in the first place.

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Nancy and Ronald Reagan

March 8, 2016 The complexity of power and family.

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Apple and the FBI: A Tale of Mutual Incomprehension

March 4, 2016 The debate between national security interests and privacy rights is more complex than either side admits.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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What It Means to Be Moderate

March 1, 2016 Can an essentially human trait describe a political stance?

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The B-21: There Has to Be a Better Way to Drop a Bomb

Feb. 29, 2016 The U.S. military is taking a $50 billion gamble on predicting the future of warfare.

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Mexico’s Economic Dynamism

Feb. 24, 2016 The Mexican economy has persevered despite a downturn in other major global economies.

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What Isn’t Being Said About Guantanamo

Feb. 24, 2016 The transformation of warfare raises difficult questions when it comes to international laws written for a bygone time.

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The Use and Abuse of Law

Feb. 23, 2016 We examine the relationship between law and power in geopolitics.

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Papal Politics in Mexico

Feb. 16, 2016 Despite its Catholic majority, the country has a rocky history with the Vatican.

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The US, the EU and NATO

Feb. 15, 2016 The United States worries that divisions among EU member states could affect its relationship with the Continent.

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The Crisis of Polling

Feb. 8, 2016 Polls are now less reliable in predicting the outcome of elections, as we witnessed after the recent Iowa caucuses.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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Senior Russian Official Warns of American Plot

Jan. 27, 2016 The Kremlin wants to rally the public against a common enemy.

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Thoughts on Corruption

Jan. 22, 2016 While interpretations vary, the definition of corruption ultimately seems to rest on one’s vision of the human soul.

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Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did the markets take so long to start falling and why did they panic yesterday?

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The Philippines’ Role in US Strategy

Jan. 19, 2016 American basing in the Philippines has implications beyond the South China Sea.

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Israel’s Reaction to Iran Without Sanctions

Jan. 18, 2016 Despite strong rhetoric against the U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal, Israel is as safe as it has ever been.

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The US-Iranian Non-Crisis

Jan. 14, 2016 Despite expectations, both governments quickly and amicably settled a potentially volatile situation.

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Thinking About the American Presidency

Dec. 30, 2015 To understand the American political system, it is important to grasp how little power the American president has at his disposal.

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Washington’s Role in Turkey-Iraq Dispute

Dec. 17, 2015 After Turkey deployed unauthorized troops to a training camp in Iraq, the U.S. has been trying to calm tensions between two countries.

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US Strategy Towards Russia and Turkey

Dec. 15, 2015 The U.S. is holding simultaneous high-level talks in Turkey and Russia, however, the negotiations will highlight the diverging priorities of the Americans and the regional powers in the Middle East.

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US Special Operations Forces in Iraq

Dec. 2, 2015 U.S. deployment of special operations forces in Iraq is bound to create problems within the anti-Islamic State camp, including the Iraqi government.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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