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European Peninsula

Net Assessment of the European Peninsula

Dec. 2, 2015 Europe is coming to a turning point. The European Union has been slowly fragmenting, strained under the pressure of the financial and refugee crises. Countries will soon have to decide between maintaining their own sovereignty and building a strong, powerful union to solve these pivotal issues.

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In US-Russia Relations, a Little Subtlety Goes a Long Way

Oct. 18, 2017 There are hints that the two sides may be getting closer to an accommodation over Ukraine.

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A Most Dangerous Option for Germany

Oct. 16, 2017 Either through alliance or conquest, Russia is an alternative to the U.S. and EU.

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The Odd Calm of EU Officials

Oct. 9, 2017 In contrast with the Americans, who tend to overstate their problems, Europeans tend to understate theirs.

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Catalonia, Spain’s Internal Affair

Oct. 4, 2017 Independence usually has to be won with the sword after it has been declared with the pen.

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A Fight Spain Can’t Win

Sept. 29, 2017 Catalonia’s referendum is an existential threat to Spain as we know it.

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Eastern Europe’s Competitive Edge

Sept. 28, 2017 The region is taking advantage of its geographic location, which was once its downfall.

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An End in Sight for Ukraine … Maybe

Sept. 28, 2017 There are early indicators that Russia and the U.S. may settle for neutrality in Kiev right now.

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Poland Challenges the European Identity

Sept. 27, 2017 Warsaw is reluctant to give up its hard-won sovereignty to the European Union.

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The Looming Confrontation in German Mainstream Politics

Sept. 26, 2017 The recent election results show that nationalism is on the rise.

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France and Germany: The Arbiters of European Peace

Sept. 21, 2017 When the strategies of Paris and Berlin change, so too will the institutions that pacified the Continent.

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Russia’s Foreign Policy of Disruption

Sept. 21, 2017 Russia is playing a weak hand, but it is playing it very well.

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Hungary Pulls Away From the Kremlin

Sept. 12, 2017 Budapest has taken small but notable steps to realign with Washington.

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In Sweden, an Ethical Dilemma of Nuclear Proportions

Sept. 8, 2017 By signing a new nuclear weapons ban, Stockholm would be giving up U.S. and NATO security cooperation.

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Revisiting Europe, the Heroic Delusion

Sept. 6, 2017 Poland is changing Europe whether Brussels approves or not.

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For Russia, an Opportunity in US Sanctions

Aug. 29, 2017 Moscow is fighting back in a familiar arena: the Caucasus.

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Macron Versus Eastern Europe

Aug. 23, 2017 The French president has found a scapegoat in temporary laborers from the east.

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When Neutrality Isn’t an Option

Aug. 14, 2017 The Europeans are split on how to deal with sanctions against Russia.

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The EU: Powerless Over Russian Sanctions

July 26, 2017 The bloc’s member states can’t agree on how to approach expanded U.S. sanctions against Moscow.

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The EU: Authoritarianism Through Complexity

July 24, 2017 The bloc has become an authoritarian regime insisting that it is the defender of liberal democracy.

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One Belt, One Road: When a Trade Route Isn’t a Trade Route

July 13, 2017 This economic initiative is a political solution, not a commercial enterprise.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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From the Intermarium to the Three Seas

July 7, 2017 Expansion makes sense for a grouping this ambitious.

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A Different Ever Closer Union

July 5, 2017 The U.S. and Poland have similar interests, particularly when it comes to Russia.

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Hostages to History at the G-20 Summit

July 5, 2017 Leaders overstate how much their relationships define national agendas.

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The German Economy: At the Mercy of Others

June 29, 2017 The fate of Germany’s economy may rest in things Berlin cannot control.

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Bending but Not Breaking the European Central Bank

June 28, 2017 Italian bank bailouts have validated concerns over the bank’s ineffectiveness.

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The UK Can Leave Europe but Not EU Regulations

June 14, 2017 The bloc wants stronger regulations, and London will likely abide.

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70 Years Since the Marshall Plan

June 12, 2017 Even when countries work together, they do so with their own interests in mind.

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Paying the Price of Statehood

June 12, 2017 Simply saying you want to be free, historically, has never been enough.

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Different Visions for Europe

May 31, 2017 The U.S. vision to contain Russia through NATO is inadvertently pulling Europe apart.

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NATO’s Diminishing Military Function

May 30, 2017 The alliance lacks a common threat and is now more focused on its political role.

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The World That World War II Built

May 24, 2017 A handful of battles from 1942 to 1943 redefined the global order as we knew it.

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Terrorism as a Tactic

May 24, 2017 The attack in Manchester highlights some basic truths about the Islamic State.

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Cyberattacks: Breaking Into a Broken System

May 15, 2017 A system whose security depends on an absence of carelessness is a system designed to fail.

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The Collapse of the Left

May 1, 2017 Over the last few decades, the general definition of the left has lost its value.

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Declaration of the Rights of France

April 24, 2017 Europe’s future hangs on the nation-state’s ability to respond to the concerns of individuals.

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Assessing Turkey’s Power in the Balkans

April 20, 2017 Turkey’s influence is rising, but there are limits to its power.

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The Abdication of Political Leadership

April 19, 2017 Political leaders are giving up their power to popular votes with predictable results.

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Russia, Belarus and a Catch-22

April 13, 2017 Moscow needs Minsk on its side.

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Exporters’ Crisis Update: 16 Vulnerable Countries

April 6, 2017 GPF has identified and tracked how the exporters’ crisis has unfolded in what we consider the most vulnerable countries.

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The Next Four Years

April 6, 2017 A GPF conference put a spotlight on some of the key events in the world today.

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Journey’s End: Warsaw and Budapest

April 5, 2017 A shift is emerging in Eastern Europe.

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Brexit’s Impact on the UK Economy

March 30, 2017 Britain is decreasing its dependence on EU markets.

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The UK Calmly Carries On with Brexit

March 30, 2017 The consequences for the U.K. have less to do with the EU than with Scotland.

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What Past Empires Tell Us About the Future

March 27, 2017 We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

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A Nearby Terror Attack in London

March 23, 2017 Such events force us to think of how close we came to being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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Shocking News: China Matters More than NATO

March 23, 2017 A meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is more important than a NATO summit.

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Notes from Europe’s Periphery

March 22, 2017 Both ends of the Continent’s periphery are shifting away from the core.

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Free Trade and the G-20

March 20, 2017 Between Machiavelli and Ricardo, one of them had a bad weekend.

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The Dutch Elections and the Looming Crisis

March 17, 2017 A class struggle is emerging in Euro-American society.

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Nationalism and Elections in France

March 16, 2017 The country faces a weakened position and stagnant economy ahead of upcoming elections.

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France as a Northern and Southern European Power

March 13, 2017 The country holds a unique position on the Continent.

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A Busy Day in Geopolitics

March 8, 2017 Massive geopolitical upheavals often fly under the radar.

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Nationalism and Liberal Democracy

March 1, 2017 Tension between nationalism and liberal democracy is not what is haunting us today.

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The Evolving NATO Alliance

Feb. 27, 2017 The US has asked for help before and hasn’t gotten it.

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NATO, the Middle East and Eastern Europe

Feb. 22, 2017 NATO’s mission has shifted, but are its members willing to meet the new challenges?

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Technocracy, Liberal Democracy and the Division of Our Time

Feb. 15, 2017 The idea that expertise ought to guide our political life is at odds with the principle of national self-determination.

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German Exports, Banks and the Shipping Industry

Feb. 10, 2017 The global shipping industry hasn’t recovered from 2008, and that’s more bad news for German banks.

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Ukraine, Russia and Recent Fighting

Feb. 8, 2017 What flare-ups in eastern Ukraine tell us about the conflict.

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Germany Buys Time from China

Feb. 6, 2017 The news that China has become Germany’s largest trading partner merits a closer look.

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Poland Takes on Russia

Feb. 1, 2017 As it forges stronger ties in Ukraine, Warsaw is looking more like a regional power.

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Why Northern Europe Matters

Jan. 26, 2017 Rising tensions between Russia and the West could eventually lead to the region once again being in the crosshairs of the major powers’ calculations.

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The Eurozone Faces Tough Questions

Jan. 24, 2017 Some have started to openly inquire about how states could exit the monetary union.

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The Geopolitics of 2017 in 4 Maps

Jan. 23, 2017 We showcase some of the maps that visually represent the year ahead best.

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NATO and the United States

Jan. 18, 2017 The president-elect has pointed out a reality many choose to ignore.

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Europe: The Process of Change Continues

Jan. 16, 2017 How will the Continent deal with its biggest challenges in 2017?

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The Evolution of Italy’s Banking Crisis

Dec. 30, 2016 The Italian banking crisis is not just an Italian problem.

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Belarus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Dec. 28, 2016 In the near future, Belarus will remain an unofficial region of Russia, whether it wants to or not.

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The Paris Summit and the Real Climate Change Debate

Dec. 26, 2016 Editor’s Note: As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointments are announced, many are beginning to see China as the global leader on climate change. In light of recent developments, we are republishing one of our earliest articles, from Dec. 1, 2015. 

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Poland’s Rising Leadership Position

Dec. 23, 2016 Warsaw has increasingly focused on defense and regional partnerships.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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In Defense of Nationalism

Dec. 21, 2016 The concept of nationalism in the modern world remains largely misunderstood.

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Greece’s Debt Problem Lingers On

Dec. 9, 2016 Athens and Brussels once again find themselves at an impasse.

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Italy’s ‘No’ Vote

Dec. 6, 2016 A shakeup of the political establishment is just getting started.

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Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics

Nov. 30, 2016 A new political dichotomy is replacing the old left vs. right divide.

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Merkel Battles History

Nov. 22, 2016 As the German chancellor stands for re-election, she must grapple with the rising tide of nationalism.

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The City and the Nation

Nov. 17, 2016 Recent votes in the U.S. and U.K. reveal nationalism is evolving into different forms.

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Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands

Nov. 15, 2016 Countries in the borderlands ultimately won’t shift foreign policy to fully embrace Russia.

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The Power of Charisma

Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.

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The European Diaspora

Nov. 7, 2016 People who have emigrated from Europe share a common experience.

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Brexit Redux

Nov. 4, 2016 A High Court weighs in on Brexit protocol.

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What Borrowing Trends Say About the German Economy

Oct. 27, 2016 German businesses are relying less on external funding.

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Wallonia Strikes at Canada

Oct. 25, 2016 How one regional parliament blocked a trade deal for the entire EU.

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Joy and Despair in European Statistics

Oct. 13, 2016 Europe needs more than temporary growth to boost its economy.

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Germany Warns of the Danger of War

Oct. 11, 2016 With lower stakes, the U.S. and Russia might take riskier actions.

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The Use and Abuse of Referendums

Oct. 4, 2016 They may be democratic, but they rarely reveal the will of the people.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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The Causes of Germany’s Political and Social Divide

Sept. 29, 2016 The most important challenge for Berlin is the division between eastern and western Germany.

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How 2008 Changed Everything

Sept. 28, 2016 The year is appearing to be a defining moment in history.

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Why the Bosnian Serb Referendum Really Matters

Sept. 26, 2016 It is a sign that, even in Europe, groups are still fighting for self-determination.

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Biden Demands the Impossible of Ukraine: End Corruption

Sept. 23, 2016 Sanctions against Russia aren’t working and the U.S. is forced to consider a new approach.

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The Balkans: Still the Powder Keg of Europe?

Sept. 22, 2016 As external powers jockey for influence, instability is still rife in the divided region.

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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Germany Again

Sept. 20, 2016 The results of state elections in Berlin may be another indicator of an economic downturn.

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The Decline of Austerity Politics

Sept. 19, 2016 More pressing issues have taken the place of belt-tightening.

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Lehman Brothers and Germany: An Opera in Two Acts

Sept. 16, 2016 Repercussions of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt today.

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Merkel Doesn’t Blame the Voter

Sept. 8, 2016 The establishment’s view that there is no crisis in the system is leading to surprising election results for mainstream parties.

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The Euro-American Immigration Crisis

Sept. 6, 2016 Anti-immigration sentiments are growing stronger to the detriment of mainstream parties.

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Rumors of a Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank Merger

Sept. 2, 2016 Germany’s two largest banks held talks, causing many to speculate about the future of the ailing banking sector.

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France and Germany Call to End Trade Talks

Aug. 31, 2016 The politics surrounding EU-U.S. free trade negotiations emphasize the divisions in the EU.

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Europe’s Long War with Islam

Aug. 29, 2016 Both Christianity and Islam are political religions, combining internal conflict with foreign adventures.

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Germany and Turkey’s Quiet Alliance

Aug. 25, 2016 Though Berlin and Ankara’s relationship is often contentious, they know they need each other.

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Italy, Germany and France Meet on an Aircraft Carrier

Aug. 24, 2016 The EU leaders tried to project unity, despite Italy’s economic malaise.

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A Special Relationship for the UK After All

Aug. 18, 2016 Germany seems to be softening its stance on what happens after Brexit.

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Germany’s Weak Negotiating Power

Aug. 15, 2016 Berlin’s authority in negotiations with Russia and Turkey is outweighed by the U.S.

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Russia, Ukraine and Threats

Aug. 12, 2016 Moscow appears to be setting up conditions to justify action against Ukraine but its goal is unclear.

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Troubling Signs out of Germany and Saudi Arabia

Aug. 2, 2016 Deutsche Bank and the Saudi central bank released unnerving statements yesterday.

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NGOs and the Fallacy of Civil Society

July 28, 2016 Though called “non-governmental,” NGOs often receive significant government funding and may pursue political agendas.

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Why Warnings Over Brexit Were Wrong

July 22, 2016 Short-term outlooks produce misconceptions.

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The Strategy Behind the Nice Attack

July 14, 2016 The purpose of terror is to terrify.

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American Exposure to the European Financial Crisis

July 14, 2016 While the U.S. at first seems fairly shielded from the Continent’s banking problems, a deeper look reveals substantial uncertainty and risk.

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Decision-Making and Disarray in the EU

July 13, 2016 The EU’s complex bureaucracy has prevented it from dealing with crises effectively.

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How the EU’s Crisis Places Limits on NATO

July 12, 2016 As the bloc disintegrates, member states will become less committed to collective security.

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German Bank at Risk of Default

July 11, 2016 How the bank proceeds will test Germany’s commitment to the bail-in approach.

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The Bail-in Strategy and Europe’s Crisis

July 11, 2016 The EU’s approach to banks in crisis carries high risk and huge consequences.

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Italy and Systemic Failure

July 8, 2016 The Italian banking crisis is not only Italy’s problem.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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Europe Prepares to Face Its New Reality

July 6, 2016 EU member states are increasingly acknowledging the bloc’s inability to deal with future crises.

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EU Leaves Trade Deal Approval to Members

July 5, 2016 This shift indicates member states are taking back control over key decisions from the bloc.

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A New Roadmap for Political Factions

July 5, 2016 “Nationalist” and “internationalist” might better describe current politics than “left” and “right.”

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Signs of Trouble for Deutsche Bank

July 1, 2016  A crisis in Germany’s largest bank would be felt by financial markets worldwide.

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Scotland the Lonely

June 30, 2016 After voting against independence two years ago, Edinburgh is now weighing its post-Brexit options.

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The Future of Europe After Brexit

June 29, 2016 The Continent is facing a new reality and a dysfunctional union.

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Germany with Its Back Against a Wall

June 29, 2016 Berlin is willing to sacrifice any part of the EU except the free trade zone.

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Brexit’s Impact on Italian Banks

June 27, 2016 The Italian government’s response to the crisis so far has been limited by EU regulations.

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The EU Model and the Muslim World

June 27, 2016 After Brexit, the EU should not be seen as a model for unity between nation-states.

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The EU Capitulates

June 25, 2016 The bloc’s members have conceded that further integration may not be desirable.

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The Surprise at Brexit and the Social Crisis Behind It

June 25, 2016 The pro-EU elite never imagined “leave” would win.

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Now Is the Time to Invent Another Europe

June 24, 2016 Brexit may have a spillover effect in the rest of the EU.

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Britain’s Vote to Leave

June 24, 2016 The United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU.

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The Rules of Brexit

June 23, 2016 The EU’s future will remain uncertain even after the referendum is over.

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The Slow Unraveling of NATO

June 22, 2016 As NATO members’ interests disperse, the alliance’s relevance wanes.

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Euroskeptic Governments Campaign Against Brexit

June 21, 2016 In Central Europe, economic and security interests are more important than ideological struggles with the EU.

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Euroskeptic Party Makes Big Gains in Italian Election

June 20, 2016 Voters are frustrated by the country’s economic problems and relationship with the EU.

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Update on Major Forecasts

June 6, 2016 Developments in Germany, China and Kazakhstan indicate our forecast is on track.

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Turkey, Germany and Moral Posturing

June 3, 2016 The Bundestag’s statement about Armenia is a political tool.

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Brexit: Europe’s Reluctant Power Weighs Its Options

June 1, 2016 What will the referendum mean for Britain and the union?

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Germany Looks to Ease Russian Sanctions

June 1, 2016 Berlin is performing a balancing act between Moscow and the West.

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Nationalism Is Rising, Not Fascism

May 31, 2016 The claims of an increase in fascism in Europe and the U.S. derive from a misunderstanding of the term.

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Europe’s Expanding Bank Crisis

May 27, 2016 As other problems divert attention, southern Europe’s banks continue to struggle.

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The Next Chapter for the Intermarium

May 20, 2016 Growing indications suggest a new alliance structure is forming.

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Germany’s Invisible Crisis

May 15, 2016 A downturn in the German economy would have ripple effects across Europe.

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The Spread of Euroskepticism

May 11, 2016 Recent polls show growing anti-EU sentiment in some of Europe’s biggest economies.

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The Geopolitics of a Ukrainian Border Town

May 10, 2016 Berehove exemplifies the mingling of people, languages and cultures typical in borderlands.

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Ballistic Missile Defense and Reality

May 6, 2016 The system protects Eastern Europe from a very improbable threat.

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Germany’s European Army

May 4, 2016 A leaked document suggests Berlin is interested in increasing Europe’s defense capabilities.

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France’s Strategic Goals

April 28, 2016 The country must balance its interests in Europe and across the Mediterranean region.

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Obama and the European Union

April 27, 2016 Keeping the EU together is in the United States’ interest, but it doesn’t have the means or ability to do so.

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A Major German Exporter Struggles

April 26, 2016 Daimler’s first-quarter report might be a harbinger of bad news for the EU.

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Journey’s End: Summarizing Central Europe

April 22, 2016 The EU doesn’t understand, Russia looms large, and the U.S. presidential race spells the beginning of the end.

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Journey to Europe: Welcome to Czechia

April 21, 2016 The Czech Republic’s latest metamorphosis won’t be able to save it from its geopolitical fate.

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Journey to Europe: The Ongoing Romanian Revolution

April 20, 2016 The people are still determining the lives they want to lead and the way the government should rule.

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Journey to Europe: Visiting Romania

April 19, 2016 Despite a lack of fanfare, the United States’ relationship with Romania has become quite strong.

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Journey to Europe: The Perspective of the Apprentice

April 18, 2016 While attending a conference in Slovakia, our director of analysis reflects on the future.

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Europe, Islam and Radical Secularism

April 14, 2016 Post-Enlightenment Europe has replaced its Christian values with secular ones.

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Why Turkey and Russia Will Avoid Confrontation

April 12, 2016 The two countries have competing interests, but no desire for conflict with one another.

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Journey to Europe: Preparation

April 12, 2016 Geopolitics dictates that history takes shape regardless of opinions or intentions.

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Ukraine’s Political Instability Continues

April 11, 2016 The prime minister’s resignation highlights the discord among political factions in Kiev.

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France Confronts Germany on Defense

April 8, 2016 The two countries have diverging views on boosting their military efforts.

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Lincoln, Brexit and Geopolitics

April 7, 2016 Understanding a nation’s strategy requires an unbiased view of its objectives and constraints.

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The Strategic Importance of Greece

April 5, 2016 The country has been at the center of major crises that threaten to destabilize the European Union.

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An Update on Italy’s Banking Woes

March 30, 2016 An economic crisis for Italy is a political crisis for Europe.

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Eastern Europe’s EU Dependency Trap

March 29, 2016 The union’s eastern members are highly dependent on the bloc for investment, funding, jobs and access to markets.

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Bosnia, Kosovo and Brussels

March 25, 2016 This week’s attacks in Belgium are a continuation of Muslim-Christian confrontations that began when the Soviet Union fell.

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Central Europe and Germany: The Tables Turn

March 24, 2016 The Visegrad Four countries are highly exposed to fluctuations in the German economy.

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The Link Between Syria and Ukraine

March 24, 2016 The fact that the two conflicts have become intertwined is not a coincidence.

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The Cycle of Terrorism

March 23, 2016 Identifying terrorists requires a shift in intelligence methods.

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Belgium, Turkey and Islamic State’s Strategy

March 22, 2016 The recent attacks strike at the heart of two potential threats to IS.

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Brussels Attacks Highlight Europe’s New Reality

March 22, 2016 The explosions that hit two separate targets were coordinated.

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Hungary, Poland and Illiberal Democracy

March 18, 2016 In a liberal democracy, the people have the right to vote for illiberal policies.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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Germany: Masking Economic Vulnerability

March 10, 2016 An analysis of whether domestic German consumption can replace global demand for German exports.

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Uncovering What Will Happen for Rising Powers

March 3, 2016 A deeper look at how our geopolitical model informs our forecasts.

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What It Means to Be Moderate

March 1, 2016 Can an essentially human trait describe a political stance?

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The Pitfalls of the French Economic Model

Feb. 23, 2016 France’s economy has produced stagnant growth and high unemployment.

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Brexit and the Ongoing Saga of the EU

Feb. 22, 2016 Britain struck an agreement with the EU, but will it help Cameron keep the country in the union?

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Cracks Grow in German-French Relations

Feb. 17, 2016 The serious challenges facing the European Union have contributed to a divide between the two countries.

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The US, the EU and NATO

Feb. 15, 2016 The United States worries that divisions among EU member states could affect its relationship with the Continent.

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The European Band Plays On

Feb. 11, 2016 The EU’s six founding members may deepen integration among themselves, while leaving the rest to follow their own paths.

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Italy’s Strategic Goals

Feb. 10, 2016 While secure in most of its grand strategy, preserving economic stability poses a challenge to Rome.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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The British-EU Agreement

Feb. 3, 2016 The deal is supposed to give members more power over EU legislation but does not address the core objections of the union’s critics.

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Italy’s Problematic EU Deal

Feb. 1, 2016 Seemingly contradictory actions highlight fundamental tensions in Rome.

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The Geopolitics of Deposit Insurance

Jan. 29, 2016 Governments are growing increasingly worried that public confidence in banking systems may diminish, as financial problems in parts of Europe and Asia escalate.

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Italy, the European Commission and the Threat of Austerity

Jan. 28, 2016 The EU so far has not recognized that the Italian banking crisis is a European crisis.

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Italy’s Debt Deal Will Not End Banking Crisis

Jan. 27, 2016 The agreement aims to address Italy’s large stock of non-performing loans, but ultimately fails to offer a comprehensive solution to the country’s banking woes.

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Europe’s Three Interlocking Crises Unfold

Jan. 26, 2016 The interaction between economic doldrums, the refugee crisis and a weakening Russia further complicates European attempts to solve these problems.

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The Decline of Pipeline Politics

Jan. 22, 2016 Reduced dependence on Russian energy in Central and Eastern Europe has diminished the Kremlin’s influence in the region.

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The Dilemma of Systemic Crisis

Jan. 21, 2016 International institutions are struggling to manage Europe’s economic challenges, while still adhering to their own lending standards.

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Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did the markets take so long to start falling and why did they panic yesterday?

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Italy’s Banking Crisis Progresses

Jan. 20, 2016 As bank stocks drop, the rift between Italy and the EU worsens.

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Net Assessment of Germany

Jan. 15, 2016 An in-depth look at the strategic goals of one of Europe’s most economically and politically dominant countries.

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The Precarious State of Italian Banks

Jan. 15, 2016 An update on the serious financial problems facing Italy.

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Letter from Amsterdam

Jan. 13, 2016 The immigration crisis highlights the European Union’s growing irrelevance in Europe.

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China, Saudi Arabia and Germany: The Export Crisis Matures

Jan. 8, 2016 The impact of the export market’s global decline, which was initiated by the 2008 financial crisis, is reverberating through the supply chain and spreading to more countries.

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More Border Checks for Schengen Zone

Jan. 4, 2016 The refugee crisis has not only contributed to the ongoing fragmentation of Europe, but has also impacted the cohesion of Germany’s ruling coalition.

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Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Dec. 28, 2015 The quiet of the past few days gives us an opportunity to explain how we decide whether or not an event is important.

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Spanish Election Highlights Italy’s EU Woes

Dec. 22, 2015 The most interesting response to the Spanish election results came from the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

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EU Extends Russia Sanctions

Dec. 21, 2015 A six-month extension was applied to sanctions on Russia by the European Union, indicating members of the EU have mixed priorities when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine issue.

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Britain, Borders and the EU Gridlock

Dec. 21, 2015 Europe’s political masters are simply putting off facing extremely significant decisions they know they must make.

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Merkel, Muslims and the Problem of Multiculturalism

Dec. 15, 2015 Why German Chancellor Angela Merkel called multiculturalism a sham and how Europe’s definition is different to the United States.

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Italy’s Banking Woes

Dec. 14, 2015 The country may clash with the European Union over its plans to compensate some bondholders for their financial losses, following the restructuring of four small banks.

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The French Election and the National Front

Dec. 14, 2015 While the media is portraying the French election result as an unmitigated disaster for the National Front, we can say it was a mitigated disaster.

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National Front’s Impact on French Regional Elections

Dec. 13, 2015 Despite failing to win control in any single region, the National Front had a significant impact on the French regional elections and will continue to be a major player in French politics.

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The Future of the Schengen Zone

Dec. 12, 2015 There are increasing indications that the Schengen zone will not survive in a fragmented Europe, at least not in its current form, and this could lead to negative impacts on trade and tourism.

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Greek Funding Negotiations

Dec. 11, 2015 As Greece negotiates the release of its next round of funding, indications are growing that the country is falling behind on the terms of its third bailout agreement.

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Risk of a Financial Crisis in Italy Increases

Dec. 11, 2015 The Italian banking system is in serious trouble and the failure of these four banks is simply the tip of the iceberg.

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Merkel, Time Magazine and Our Take on Why She Deserved the Honor

Dec. 10, 2015 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is deserving of Time’s “Person on the Year” award because of the way she has managed an impossible and ultimately insoluble problem.

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The IMF and Geopolitics

Dec. 9, 2015 With new fault lines emerging in Europe as a result of the debt crisis in Greece, the Ukraine issue and other conflicts, the International Monetary Fund has increasingly moved toward furthering Western geopolitical goals.

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Electricity Partially Restored in Crimea

Dec. 8, 2015 After two weeks without electricity, Ukraine partially restored power to Crimea, following a visit to Kiev by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden yesterday.

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A Big Day in Geopolitics

Dec. 8, 2015 We look at how several key geopolitical developments in Europe, Russia and Latin America yesterday impact Geopolitical Futures’ forecast.

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Turkey-Russia Dispute Intensifies

Dec. 7, 2015 In what amounts to an escalation of tensions between the two countries, Turkey has reportedly been delaying passage through the Bosporus Strait for Russian ships.

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Biden Visits Ukraine

Dec. 7, 2015 The U.S. is likely concerned that Kiev could trigger a crisis in the region at a time when Washington is working to create a broad coalition, which includes Russia, to fight the Islamic State in Syria.

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French Far-Right Party Makes Gains

Dec. 7, 2015 The National Front achieved its best ever electoral performance in the first round of regional elections.

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Poland and Nuclear Weapons

Dec. 6, 2015 Poland’s defense ministry has denied that the country wants to join NATO’s nuclear weapons program, even though the deputy defense minister previously said the country was considering hosting nuclear weapons.

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German Approach to EU Border Control

Dec. 4, 2015 Germany is hoping to boost Europe’s external borders while allowing themselves the legal possibility to extend controls along its own borders.

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The Danish Vote and the European Crisis

Dec. 4, 2015 The Danish rejected a series of changes to Denmark’s laws in order to bring it into compliance with EU requirements, reflecting a growing challenge for the union.

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Shifts in Eastern Ukraine

Dec. 3, 2015 Kiev announced it has regained control over two small villages in eastern Ukraine, suggesting the government is trying to draw American attention to its concerns as negotiations with Russia continue.

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The EU’s Open Borders

Dec. 3, 2015 A leaked document indicates that European governments may be shifting their strategies in the refugee crisis from ad-hoc border controls to potentially more permanent controls and suspension of the Schengen agreement.

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The Ukrainian Mystery

Dec. 3, 2015 After the sabotage of power lines caused an electricity shortage in Crimea, the Ukrainian government displayed a fairly casual attitude toward the matter, given that the shortage directly challenges Russia’s position in Crimea.

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Greece’s Refugee Problem

Dec. 2, 2015 Greece has struggled to cope with the high flow of refugees coming into the country and has been threatened, informally, with suspension from the Schengen zone for its failure to secure its borders.

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Greek Border Controls

Dec. 2, 2015 According to a news report, if Greece fails to improve border controls by a mid-December summit, other Schengen members could impose border controls with Greece.

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Russia, Ukraine Downplay Energy Standoff

Nov. 30, 2015 After power was cut off in Russian-controlled Crimea, the Kremlin suspended coal shipments to Ukraine, but both countries have downplayed the dispute.

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EU-Turkey Deal to Stem Refugee Flow

Nov. 29, 2015 The European Union and Turkey have reached a deal to prevent some migrants from travelling to Europe but the plan does not address the root causes of the crisis.

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A New Crisis in Ukraine?

Nov. 26, 2015 Ukraine has engaged in a series of retaliatory gestures with Russia that may signal a coming crisis.

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Ukraine-Russia Tensions Rise

Nov. 25, 2015 The governments in Kiev and Moscow have been increasingly hostile since damage to electricity generators caused by unidentified individuals in southern Ukraine led to power outages in Crimea.

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US-Russia Negotiations Worry Ukraine

Nov. 24, 2015 Ukraine wants to build a wedge between Washington and the Kremlin, as the two countries edge closer in their fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

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Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh and the Resurrection of Old Europe

Nov. 25, 2015 Europe is considering its options following the Islamic State’s attacks on French and Russian targets.

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Germany Revises Approach to Open Borders

Nov. 18, 2015 With security concerns now adding to the refugee crisis, Germans are becoming increasingly wary of the European Union’s open borders.

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Aftershocks and Morality Questions Following Paris Attacks

Nov. 18, 2015 Governments and individuals now have to face the difficult question of how to prevent future attacks from happening.

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Ukraine Claims Ceasefire Violations

Nov. 17, 2015 Kiev’s reports of spikes in ceasefire violations are likely meant to influence negotiations between Russia and the West.

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Free Movement in Europe May Be Coming to an End

Nov. 17, 2015 French President Francois Hollande reportedly plans to call for an end to free movement of European Union citizens.

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Islamic State’s Warning on Paris Attacks

Nov. 16, 2015 Iraq’s intelligence service received a warning that Islamic State was planning to attack coalition countries prior to the deadly attacks in Paris.

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The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks

Nov. 16. 2015 The terrorist attacks in Paris indicate a new level of sophistication in Islamic State’s planning and coordination.

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Net Assessment of the European Peninsula

Dec. 2, 2015 Europe is coming to a turning point. The European Union has been slowly fragmenting, strained under the pressure of the financial and refugee crises. Countries will soon have to decide between maintaining their own sovereignty and building a strong, powerful union to solve these pivotal issues.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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