East Asia

Net Assessment of East Asia

May 12, 2016 The economic downturn in China will have significant consequences for the whole region.

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The Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons

April 24, 2017 Recent developments in North Korea have placed a spotlight on these weapons.

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China’s New Approach to Myanmar

April 20, 2017 China’s position changes from fomenting conflict to negotiating peace in Myanmar.

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What a War with North Korea Looks Like

April 19, 2017 None of the options, apart from de-escalation, are attractive.

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Major Choke Points in the Persian Gulf and East Asia

April 17, 2017 For Persian Gulf exporters and East Asian consumers, the free passage of oil shipments is essential.

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Playing Chinese Roulette on the Yalu River

April 12, 2017 Is North Korea as dependent on China as everyone assumes?

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Chinese Military Movements and North Korea

April 11, 2017 Reports suggest Chinese army personnel may be mobilizing.

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Trump and Xi Take Center Stage

April 10, 2017 The two leaders had a lot to talk about.

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China, North Korea and a Useful Coincidence

April 7, 2017 Are the North Koreans approaching the red line or bluffing?

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Exporters’ Crisis Update: 16 Vulnerable Countries

April 6, 2017 GPF has identified and tracked how the exporters’ crisis has unfolded in what we consider the most vulnerable countries.

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The Next Four Years

April 6, 2017 A GPF conference put a spotlight on some of the key events in the world today.

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Chinese Military Installations in the South China Sea

April 3, 3017 For now, these installations are primarily for defensive purposes.

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What Past Empires Tell Us About the Future

March 27, 2017 We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

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Shocking News: China Matters More than NATO

March 23, 2017 A meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is more important than a NATO summit.

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The US and China Make Nice

March 21, 2017 Officials are striking a calmer tone but will this affect relations?

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Free Trade and the G-20

March 20, 2017 Between Machiavelli and Ricardo, one of them had a bad weekend.

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China and a Philippine Foreign Secretary’s Ouster

March 10, 2017 The South China Sea is a sideshow.

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A Busy Day in Geopolitics

March 8, 2017 Massive geopolitical upheavals often fly under the radar.

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North Korea Is Approaching the Red Line

March 8, 2017 The regime appeared to be bluffing about nuclear weapons, but has that changed?

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China’s Economy Continues to Decline

March 6, 2017 More economic pain is on the way.

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The Kuril Islands and Russia’s Pacific Interests

March 2, 2017 Russia is weakening while Japan is rising.

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The Philippines Criticizes China

Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines’ opening to China is over.

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Japan and the US: Mutual Alliance, Unbalanced Fear

Feb. 23, 2017 The integral alliance is driven by distinct motives and experienced uniquely by each country.

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China’s National Security Challenges

Feb. 20, 2017 Any change that restricts Chinese access to global markets is a threat.

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Real Estate and Debt in China: One Road to Discontent

Feb. 16, 2017 China is walking a fine line to avoid a housing market crash.

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The US Is Not Abandoning Asia

Feb 13, 2017 A look at US military and investment positions in the Asia-Pacific region.

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One China, Two Koreas

Feb. 13, 2017 The issues dividing the U.S. and China go beyond the “one China” policy.

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US Policy on South China Sea Hasn’t Changed

Feb. 7, 2017 Gen. James Mattis’ recent comments made waves in China, but they do not represent a shift in policy.

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Leading Power: A Look at Japan vs. China

Feb. 6, 2017 A comparison of the two countries’ economies reveals how Japan will emerge as East Asia’s dominant power.

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Germany Buys Time from China

Feb. 6, 2017 The news that China has become Germany’s largest trading partner merits a closer look.

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China Bids for the Philippines

Jan. 26, 2016 There is a strategy behind Beijing’s recent investments in the Philippines.

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‘Alternative Facts’

Jan. 25, 2017 Here’s how to avoid them.

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The Geopolitics of 2017 in 4 Maps

Jan. 23, 2017 We showcase some of the maps that visually represent the year ahead best.

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China’s Limits in the Indo-Pacific

Jan. 20, 2017 Taking stock of competition between India, China and the U.S. in the Indian Ocean.

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Duterte and the Philippines: No Pivot to China Just Yet

Jan. 19, 2017 Beijing is courting the Philippines president, but the U.S. has the upper hand.

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China’s Corporate Debt Struggles Continue

Jan. 17, 2017 Beijing wants to solve its corporate debt problem using free market principles.

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One Belt, One Road, No Dice

Jan. 12, 2017 China’s ambitious infrastructure plans have a long way to go to become a game-changer.

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Political Conspiracies in China

Jan. 5, 2017 The Chinese president is becoming more direct in his accusations against his opponents.

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Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict.

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Thinking About a US-China War

Jan. 3, 2017 A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

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Fact or Fiction: Is China’s Holding of US Debt a Source of Leverage?

Dec. 29, 2016 Beijing faces a number of constraints.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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China’s Grand Goals and Limited Options

Dec. 16, 2016 Beijing is developing its naval capabilities, but to what end?

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Trump Turns the Tables on China

Dec. 8, 2016 China must have access to U.S. consumer markets, and Donald Trump knows it.

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Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive.

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China and Hong Kong’s Status Quo

Nov. 16, 2016 Hong Kong’s High Court rules vocal pro-independence members should lose council seats.

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No Quick Fixes for South Korea’s Economic Woes

Nov. 3, 2016 The country’s export-driven economy is straining to adapt.

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Sticks and Stones

Nov. 3, 2016 The U.S. has faced some tough words from foreign leaders of late, but does it matter?

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China’s Prestige Politics

Oct. 28, 2016 October has been a busy month for Chinese foreign policy.

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A Method to Duterte’s Madness

Oct. 6, 2016 The Philippine president has used some colorful language when speaking of the U.S., but Duterte can’t afford to break ties with the Americans.

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Chinese Companies Are Hiding Their Debt

Oct. 5, 2016 Beijing has to keep state-owned firms afloat to avoid massive unemployment.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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China Is Still Really Poor

Sept. 15, 2016 China says it has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. What does that really mean?

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North Korea’s Weapons

Sept. 13, 2016 Pyongyang has launched more nuclear tests but it has a long way to go before developing a nuclear weapon.

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Making Sense of the China-Japan Relationship

Aug. 26, 2016 Both countries will continue to dance around the disputed islands issue.

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Quantum Keys for Classic Codes: China’s New Satellite

Aug. 22, 2016 Beijing’s recent quantum satellite launch gives us a glimpse at the future of secure communications.

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Rising Debt, Shrinking Investment in China

Aug. 16, 2016 While Beijing knows it needs to reform state-run companies, political and social factors create serious roadblocks.

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China Goes Fishing in the East China Sea

Aug. 9, 2016 China has recently been more brazen in provoking Japan.

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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A Chinese Port in the US Storm

July 27, 2016 Leaders of the two countries have recently overlooked some disagreements to emphasize their common interests.

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China’s Problems Are Bigger than Its Leadership Struggle

July 25, 2016 The Communist Party is trying to ensure it can hold the country together.

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Appearances vs. Realities in China

July 21, 2016 Beijing projects an image of strength but its weakness often shapes its polices.

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China, International Law and Reality

July 14, 2016 The South China Sea case proves that laws mean nothing if there is no enforcement mechanism.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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Xi’s Strong Control Over a Weak Economy

June 16, 2016 The anti-corruption campaign expands to politicians’ families as the yuan takes a dip.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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The Trouble with Ending Wars

June 14, 2016 Today’s U.S. deployments in the Middle East look similar to those in 1972 Vietnam.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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Update on Major Forecasts

June 6, 2016 Developments in Germany, China and Kazakhstan indicate our forecast is on track.

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China’s Perspective on North Korea

June 2, 2016 Managing Pyongyang’s outbursts is a valuable tool for Beijing in its relationship with Washington.

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A Moral Necessity

May 26, 2016 Focusing only on casualty numbers ignores the broader context behind the decision to drop the bombs.

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A Picture of American Empire

May 25, 2016 The U.S. wants to be liked, but knows it is feared.

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Vietnam, the US and the Centrality of Geopolitics

May 24, 2016 Based on ideology, Washington should not sell weapons to Hanoi, but it is.

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Power and Ideology: China’s Cultural Revolution

May 16, 2016 The Chinese Communist Party’s power does not stem from its ideology.

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Net Assessment of East Asia

May 12, 2016 The economic downturn in China will have significant consequences for the whole region.

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Chinese Power Struggles

May 10, 2016 President Xi Jinping faces a potential challenger while trying to consolidate power.

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Japan’s Strategy and Its Constitution

May 4, 2016 Tokyo cannot depend on Washington indefinitely.

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China Admits Its Statistics Are Wrong

April 29, 2016 The national anti-corruption agency has reported that hundreds of statistics bureau employees provided preferential data for a fee.

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National Security with Chinese Characteristics

April 25, 2016 The government’s counterespionage efforts are meant to send a message to the Chinese public.

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North Korea, Nukes and Sanity

April 25, 2016 There is rationality behind the North Koreans’ nuclear program.

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A Grain of Salt for China’s Export Growth

April 15, 2016 Recently released data has been celebrated, despite explaining little about the Chinese economy.

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Will Russia and China Become Allies?

April 6, 2016 An alliance between the two massive powers would challenge U.S. global dominance.

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The Political Nature of Strong Armies

March 29, 2016 A military’s role goes beyond fighting wars.

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China’s Problem with Non-Performing Loans

March 15, 2016 Another dimension to Beijing’s economic crisis brought on by slowing growth.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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Uncovering What Will Happen for Rising Powers

March 3, 2016 A deeper look at how our geopolitical model informs our forecasts.

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China’s Layoffs Announcement Bodes Ill

March 1, 2016 It’s one thing for millions of Chinese workers to lose their jobs, but it’s another for Beijing to publicly announce it.

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Quantifying Japan’s Trade Vulnerabilities

Feb. 29, 2016 Analyzing who has more at stake in Japanese imports – Japan or its suppliers.

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Chinese Propaganda vs. Western Spin

Feb. 26, 2016 Sometimes the media’s portrayal of an event can be more enlightening than the event itself.

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The Use and Abuse of Law

Feb. 23, 2016 We examine the relationship between law and power in geopolitics.

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The Meaninglessness of Missile Defense in South Korea

Feb. 17, 2016 The strategic situation in the Korean Peninsula would be changed little by the deployment of a missile defense system.

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The Truth About Unemployment in China

Feb. 16, 2016 While unemployment looms large right now, the future Chinese labor force will lack enough workers to keep the economy going.

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Hong Kong and the Future of Chinese Unrest

Feb. 10, 2016 Protests during New Year celebrations may not spell trouble for the Communist Party.

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China and Bad News: The New Normal

Feb. 9, 2016 With the economic downturn now firmly established, it will be important to watch how Beijing responds.

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Examining Japan’s National Security Strategy

Feb. 4, 2016 Incapable of protecting against its main threats on its own, Tokyo is caught between self-reliance and dependency.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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More Indications of China’s Economic Decline

Feb. 1, 2016 While individual indicators may give a limited picture of an economy’s health, additional signs are emerging that the country’s economy is slowing.

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The Geopolitics of Deposit Insurance

Jan. 29, 2016 Governments are growing increasingly worried that public confidence in banking systems may diminish, as financial problems in parts of Europe and Asia escalate.

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Shadowboxing in the South China Sea

Jan. 29, 2016 Pacific powers rattle their sabers, but strategic interests will preclude outright combat.

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The Export Crisis: The 10 Worst Hit Countries and the 5 Most at Risk

Jan. 21, 2016 As the global market for exports declines, we indicate some of the countries that will be most affected by the downturn.

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Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did the markets take so long to start falling and why did they panic yesterday?

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The Philippines’ Role in US Strategy

Jan. 19, 2016 American basing in the Philippines has implications beyond the South China Sea.

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Explaining China’s Anticipated GDP Statistics

Jan. 18, 2016 While the figures are as expected, they highlight serious economic issues.

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China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Continues

Jan. 15, 2016 The Chinese president needs to ensure loyalty from Communist Party members and government officials throughout the country.

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China’s Approach to Internal and External Security

Jan. 12, 2016 For Beijing, maintaining discipline and cohesion in the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army are a national security issue.

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What Happens After China

Jan. 11, 2016 The media was fixated on China’s stock market meltdown last week, but the broader significance of events such as these is their impact on the global export market.

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Xi, the PLA and China’s Future

Jan. 8, 2016 Signs of discord between the Chinese president and the military have been visible and whether the regime can manage the conflict will determine the future course of the country.

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China, Saudi Arabia and Germany: The Export Crisis Matures

Jan. 8, 2016 The impact of the export market’s global decline, which was initiated by the 2008 financial crisis, is reverberating through the supply chain and spreading to more countries.

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The Use of Irrationality in Foreign Affairs

Jan. 7, 2016 The North Korean regime has mastered the art of uncertainty to manipulate the world.

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Deja Vu as Chinese Markets Fall Again

Jan. 6, 2016 Chinese markets closed abruptly for the second time this week, as the government tries to stem the impact of the economic volatility.

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The Significance and Insignificance of a North Korean Hydrogen Bomb

Jan. 6, 2016 If the North Koreans did indeed test a hydrogen bomb, it would be an impressive technical achievement but not a game changer.

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The Inadequacy of Chinese Statistics

Jan. 6, 2016 Why is Beijing preventing Chinese institutions from selling stocks if there is so much foreign investment, and why is there such an increase in the level of capital flight?

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The Bigger Picture in China’s Stock Market Dive

Jan. 5, 2016 Drops in China’s stock market highlight the problems the Chinese government will face in trying to maintain control of the country, as the economy weakens.

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Impact of Chinese Market Decline

Jan. 4, 2016 The market decline indicates an underlying lack of confidence in the economy and in the state’s regulatory regime.

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The Chinese Central Committee and the People’s Liberation Army Face Off

Dec. 31, 2015 Sources in China are reporting increased tension between the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

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China’s New Employment Plan

Dec. 29, 2015 After introducing reforms that will leave tens of thousands of soldiers unemployed, the Chinese government has ordered state-owned enterprises to offer preferential hiring to veterans.

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Signs of Political Instability in South Korea

Dec. 18, 2015 In addition to the precipitous decline in South Korean exports that indicate economic trouble for Seoul, there are worrying signs of political instability and stalemate in the country.

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Army Reforms in China

Dec. 11, 2015 The Chinese government has started implementing changes to the People’s Liberation Army, in an attempt to centralize power in Beijing.

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China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign

Dec. 7, 2015 The government is reportedly expanding its campaign against corrupt officials over the next two years.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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