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East Asia

Net Assessment of East Asia

May 12, 2016 The economic downturn in China will have significant consequences for the whole region.

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The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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Impure Attitudes in North Korea

Dec. 15, 2017 It may be that Kim took action before resistance to his policy became resistance to him.

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For North Korean Peace, Conditions May Apply

Dec. 14, 2017 Mixed signals from the White House don’t change its options for resolving the crisis.

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In China, Reforms Create New Winners and Losers

Dec. 13, 2017 The government is trying to push through changes but is facing resistance from vastly different segments of society.

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For India and China, Southeast Asia Is a Battleground

Dec. 12, 2017 India is expanding its efforts to gain a foothold in the region.

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In North Korea, Is the United States’ Loss Russia’s Gain?

Dec. 7, 2017 Moscow’s proposal to resolve the brewing conflict ignores basic facts on the ground.

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The Coming Conflict Between China and Japan

Dec. 6, 2017 As the U.S. nears the limits of its power, regional powers will be more unencumbered than ever before.

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South Korea’s Plans to Avert War

Nov. 30, 2017 Seoul doesn’t want a military conflict but must be prepared in case it breaks out.

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China: Enlisting Cities in the Fight for Reform

Nov. 24, 2017 The central government can’t impose changes on its own.

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China Gets Serious About Financial Reform

Nov. 22, 2017 The government will have to make some tough choices if it wants to change the financial sector.

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China’s One Belt, One Road Faces Pushback

Nov. 21, 2017 Countries want China’s funding but not at any cost.

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In China, More Regulation Does Not Mean More Enforcement

Nov. 20, 2017 The establishment of another regulatory body won’t do much to boost China’s financial system.

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The US Narrows Its Focus in Southeast Asia

Nov. 14, 2017 Washington isn’t about to abandon the region.

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Japan’s Radical Pursuit of Revival

Nov. 9, 2017 The “Abenomics” experiment remains inconclusive, both at home and abroad.

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What Trump Really Said in South Korea

Nov. 9, 2017 Are these the words before the war, or more of the same?

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Containing China on the Open Seas

Nov. 2, 2017 A defense cooperation initiative between Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. is being resurrected, this time on firmer grounds.

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Testing Washington’s Commitment to Asia

Oct. 30, 2017 Until the United States decides what it will do about North Korea, its policy in Asia will remain hostage to Pyongyang.

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In China, Xi’s Power Is the Party’s Power

Oct. 26, 2017 Xi Jinping appears to have achieved what he wanted. But is it enough to solve China’s problems?

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Against Jihadists, the Philippines Wins the Battle but Not the War

Oct. 25, 2017 It’s tough to kill an ideology, even with the help of moderate groups.

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Xi’s Glittering Solutions for China

Oct. 20, 2017 Beneath the promises of a bright future was a subtle admission of the country’s weaknesses and the potential for failure.

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China Decides It’s Time to Talk About Chinese Debt

Oct. 20, 2017 Beijing has admitted to what most of us already know.

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In China, a New Political Era Begins

Oct. 19, 2017 Blending the policies of his predecessors, the Chinese president is trying to liberalize with an iron fist.

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In China, a Strategy Born of Weakness

Oct. 18, 2017 Diverse interests and regional divides threaten to destabilize the country.

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Iran and North Korea Demonstrate the Trouble With International Agreements

Oct. 16, 2017 In international relations, there is no court but the court of war.

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China, Where Reform Is Carried by an Iron Fist

Oct. 12, 2017 Will the authoritarian government to which the president aspires be enough to solve Beijing’s problems?

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North Korea’s Next Test

Oct. 12, 2017 If Kim has a deliverable nuke and believes an attack is imminent, now would be the time for another test.

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North Korea: Where China Can Beat the US

Oct. 10, 2017 To Beijing’s benefit, the current standoff indirectly involves Taiwan, much like the Korean War did.

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South Korea and the Wisdom of War

Sept. 27, 2017 It’s unclear just how much damage North Korea can inflict on Seoul.

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South Korea: The Wild Card in the Korean Crisis

Sept. 25, 2017 It’s time to review why the war hasn’t materialized.

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In China, Economic Pressures Beyond the Government’s Control

Sept. 25, 2017 Beijing’s options to manage its economic problems appear increasingly limited.

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The US Faces Unsavory Choices in the Korean Peninsula

Sept. 19, 2017 In its attempt to deal with the threat from Pyongyang, the U.S. is facing another obstacle: South Korea.

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North Korea Calls Washington’s Bluff

Sept. 5, 2017 Lost in most reporting is how a nuclear North Korea would reshape the balance of power in the region. (Updated.)

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Ballistic Missile Defense Is a Tool, Not a Strategy

Sept. 14, 2017 Assurances of protection against North Korea’s arsenal are too flimsy to form the bedrock of any deterrence strategy.

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An Industry the Chinese Government Is Struggling to Regulate

Sept. 14, 2017 Investors are finding ways to sidestep government measures to rein in the real estate market.

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Malaysia as a Means to Different Ends

Sept. 13, 2017 This fractured country is used to pry China and the U.S. away from their regional interests.

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What the Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar Misses

Sept. 7, 2017 The embattled Rohingya are caught in the crosshairs of a larger power struggle.

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The World Outside of North Korea

Sept. 6, 2017 While everyone watches North Korea, these are the stories that caught our attention.

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Promises and Partnerships in the South China Sea

Aug. 31, 2017 Between China and the U.S., the Philippines has little room to act in its self-interest.

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North Korea Negotiations Aren’t Dead Yet

Aug. 30, 2017 Monday’s missile test, and the responses to it, suggest the sides haven’t stopped talking.

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The US, North Korea, and the Lesser of Two Evils

Aug. 28, 2017 Donald Trump is approaching one of the most important decisions he will make in his presidency.

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In North Korea, Perception Is Reality

Aug. 28, 2017 We can’t assume Pyongyang and Washington understand exactly what the other wants and fears.

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What a Korean Agreement May Look Like

Aug. 24, 2017 It is easier to hold talks than to reach a settlement. And it is easier to reach a settlement than to honor it.

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North Korea’s Rational Analysis

Aug. 21, 2017 The regime in Pyongyang couldn’t have lasted this long if it were irrational.

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China and India Guard Against the Preposterous

Aug. 18, 2017 Nations do not take their national security lightly merely because the threat is far-fetched.

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Guadalcanal: The Battle That Sealed the Pacific War

Aug. 16, 2017 Midway closed the door on any hope of Japanese victory, but Guadalcanal locked it.

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What We Talk About When We Talk About North Korea

Aug. 16, 2017 Washington and Pyongyang have made their intentions known.

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Iran and North Korea: Brothers in Nuclear Arms

June 22, 2017 Exactly how closely have the two countries helped each other develop their nuclear programs?

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US Power: A Finite Resource

Aug. 14, 2017 With a number of issues at its doorstep, the U.S. may have to prioritize some interests over others.

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Slowly but Surely, Japan’s Military Prowess Grows

Aug. 11, 2017 A bout of political instability may slow Japan’s military normalization, but it will not derail it.

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Perspectives on the North Korea Crisis

Aug. 10, 2017 What happens in North Korea implicates all of East Asia.

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Throwing China’s Economy Off Balance

Aug. 10, 2017 New figures show the extent to which rogue debt can imperil Beijing.

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North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations

Aug. 9, 2017 North Korea exposes itself to more risk by obtaining nuclear weapons, but it increases its leverage by being close.

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The Terrible Magic of Atomic Weapons

Aug. 2, 2017 It’s hard to build a national policy on the assumption that these weapons moderate the depraved.

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The Role of US Allies in the North Korea Crisis

Aug. 1, 2017 South Korea and Japan are both under threat, albeit differently.

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US-China Trade Talks Collapse and It’s North Korea’s Fault

July 31, 2017 Washington has asked for Beijing’s help to restrain Pyongyang, but so far China has produced few results.

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Are China and India on the Road to War?

July 31, 2017 They’ve overcome the elements to fight for this inhospitable region before, but this time is different.

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A New Phase in US-China Relations

July 31, 2017 The threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has shifted dynamics between the world’s two largest economies.

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The Axis of the Sanctioned

July 28, 2017 Sanctions can achieve little on their own and might actually make a situation worse.

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Taking China’s Maritime Threats Seriously

July 27, 2017 Threats may be its only option, but there’s a cost to perpetual coercion.

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Southeast Asia: The Sum of Its Parts

July 20, 2017 Geography dictated that the region would be a loose affiliation of disconnected states, not a coherent bloc.

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Stories of China: Corruption and the Challenges to Come in Chongqing

July 19, 2017 The most recent chapter of Beijing’s anti-corruption saga is interesting not for what happened but for where it happened.

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China in Africa: A Different Kind of Military Theater

July 13, 2017 Beijing’s establishing a military base in Djibouti is mostly just for show.

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North Korea and the American Dilemma

July 10, 2017 Pyongyang has successfully portrayed itself as unpredictable and dangerous.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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China Tries to Buy Time From Foreign Investors

July 6, 2017 Beijing’s move to open its bond markets is a sign of weakness.

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South Korea Makes Time, Not War

June 29, 2017 Seoul will push the U.S. to exhaust all options before it will risk everything on war.

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Japanese Exceptionalism

June 28, 2017 Japan has a remarkable ability to transform itself without social upheaval.

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Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia

June 23, 2017 Jihadism in Marawi is actually a good thing for U.S. strategy in Asia.

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Calling China’s Bluff on North Korea

June 21, 2017 The U.S. is telling the Chinese that the time to act is now.

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Negotiating With North Korea

June 19, 2017 With the U.S. and North Korea, neither side seems capable of capitulating.

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Washington: The Philippines’ Inescapable Ally

June 13, 2017 The U.S. is one of the few countries that can help break the siege of Marawi.

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North Korea: Structured for Survival

June 8, 2017 What explains the longevity of the Kim dynasty?

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Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

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Why Diplomacy Is Unlikely to Solve the Korean Crisis

June 5, 2017 The U.S. is hoping for a diplomatic solution but isn’t counting on one.

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The Devil in the Details of a Korean War

June 1, 2017 North Korea’s conventional military capabilities, not its nuclear program, will determine what a potential conflict would look like.

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North Korea Stares Into the Abyss

May 29, 2017 All the signs are there: The U.S. is telling North Korea, in no uncertain terms, that war is approaching.

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Why Russia Can’t End the North Korea Crisis

May 26, 2017 The Kremlin wants to appear influential in an issue that has great consequence for the U.S.

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What Lies Beneath the Surface in East Asia

May 25, 2017 Two seemingly unrelated events will affect the regional balance of power.

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The World That World War II Built

May 24, 2017 A handful of battles from 1942 to 1943 redefined the global order as we knew it.

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In North Korea, the US Advertises Its Intentions

May 23, 2017 There are signs that military action on the Korean Peninsula is increasingly likely.

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North Korea Crisis: Neither Gone nor Forgotten

May 10, 2017 Secret diplomacy works best when it’s done quietly.

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The US’ Old Friend in Southeast Asia

May 5, 2017 Thailand and the United States have long shared similar interests in the region.

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The Philippines in Play

May 4, 2017 President Rodrigo Duterte and his nation are being courted by two major powers.

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The Limits of Expertise

May 3, 2017 Beyond expertise, waging war requires wisdom.

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For US, Shared Interests Trump Moral Purity

May 3, 2017 Donald Trump is not crazy for wanting to meet with Kim Jong Un or Rodrigo Duterte.

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How North Korea Views the Situation on the Peninsula

May 1, 2017 Pyongyang has been pursuing a consistent strategy for decades.

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The Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons

April 24, 2017 Recent developments in North Korea have placed a spotlight on these weapons.

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China’s New Approach to Myanmar

April 20, 2017 China’s position changes from fomenting conflict to negotiating peace in Myanmar.

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What a War with North Korea Looks Like

April 19, 2017 None of the options, apart from de-escalation, are attractive.

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Major Choke Points in the Persian Gulf and East Asia

April 17, 2017 For Persian Gulf exporters and East Asian consumers, the free passage of oil shipments is essential.

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Playing Chinese Roulette on the Yalu River

April 12, 2017 Is North Korea as dependent on China as everyone assumes?

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Chinese Military Movements and North Korea

April 11, 2017 Reports suggest Chinese army personnel may be mobilizing.

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Trump and Xi Take Center Stage

April 10, 2017 The two leaders had a lot to talk about.

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China, North Korea and a Useful Coincidence

April 7, 2017 Are the North Koreans approaching the red line or bluffing?

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Exporters’ Crisis Update: 16 Vulnerable Countries

April 6, 2017 GPF has identified and tracked how the exporters’ crisis has unfolded in what we consider the most vulnerable countries.

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The Next Four Years

April 6, 2017 A GPF conference put a spotlight on some of the key events in the world today.

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Chinese Military Installations in the South China Sea

April 3, 3017 For now, these installations are primarily for defensive purposes.

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What Past Empires Tell Us About the Future

March 27, 2017 We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

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Shocking News: China Matters More than NATO

March 23, 2017 A meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is more important than a NATO summit.

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The US and China Make Nice

March 21, 2017 Officials are striking a calmer tone but will this affect relations?

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Free Trade and the G-20

March 20, 2017 Between Machiavelli and Ricardo, one of them had a bad weekend.

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China and a Philippine Foreign Secretary’s Ouster

March 10, 2017 The South China Sea is a sideshow.

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A Busy Day in Geopolitics

March 8, 2017 Massive geopolitical upheavals often fly under the radar.

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North Korea Is Approaching the Red Line

March 8, 2017 The regime appeared to be bluffing about nuclear weapons, but has that changed?

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China’s Economy Continues to Decline

March 6, 2017 More economic pain is on the way.

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The Kuril Islands and Russia’s Pacific Interests

March 2, 2017 Russia is weakening while Japan is rising.

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The Philippines Criticizes China

Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines’ opening to China is over.

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Japan and the US: Mutual Alliance, Unbalanced Fear

Feb. 23, 2017 The integral alliance is driven by distinct motives and experienced uniquely by each country.

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China’s National Security Challenges

Feb. 20, 2017 Any change that restricts Chinese access to global markets is a threat.

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Real Estate and Debt in China: One Road to Discontent

Feb. 16, 2017 China is walking a fine line to avoid a housing market crash.

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The US Is Not Abandoning Asia

Feb 13, 2017 A look at US military and investment positions in the Asia-Pacific region.

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One China, Two Koreas

Feb. 13, 2017 The issues dividing the U.S. and China go beyond the “one China” policy.

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US Policy on South China Sea Hasn’t Changed

Feb. 7, 2017 Gen. James Mattis’ recent comments made waves in China, but they do not represent a shift in policy.

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Leading Power: A Look at Japan vs. China

Feb. 6, 2017 A comparison of the two countries’ economies reveals how Japan will emerge as East Asia’s dominant power.

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Germany Buys Time from China

Feb. 6, 2017 The news that China has become Germany’s largest trading partner merits a closer look.

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China Bids for the Philippines

Jan. 26, 2016 There is a strategy behind Beijing’s recent investments in the Philippines.

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‘Alternative Facts’

Jan. 25, 2017 Here’s how to avoid them.

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The Geopolitics of 2017 in 4 Maps

Jan. 23, 2017 We showcase some of the maps that visually represent the year ahead best.

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China’s Limits in the Indo-Pacific

Jan. 20, 2017 Taking stock of competition between India, China and the U.S. in the Indian Ocean.

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Duterte and the Philippines: No Pivot to China Just Yet

Jan. 19, 2017 Beijing is courting the Philippines president, but the U.S. has the upper hand.

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China’s Corporate Debt Struggles Continue

Jan. 17, 2017 Beijing wants to solve its corporate debt problem using free market principles.

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One Belt, One Road, No Dice

Jan. 12, 2017 China’s ambitious infrastructure plans have a long way to go to become a game-changer.

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Political Conspiracies in China

Jan. 5, 2017 The Chinese president is becoming more direct in his accusations against his opponents.

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Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict.

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Thinking About a US-China War

Jan. 3, 2017 A rough scenario explains why China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.

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Fact or Fiction: Is China’s Holding of US Debt a Source of Leverage?

Dec. 29, 2016 Beijing faces a number of constraints.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries

Dec. 19, 2016 The U.S. should focus on real power and not fall for bluffs.

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China’s Grand Goals and Limited Options

Dec. 16, 2016 Beijing is developing its naval capabilities, but to what end?

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Trump Turns the Tables on China

Dec. 8, 2016 China must have access to U.S. consumer markets, and Donald Trump knows it.

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Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive.

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China and Hong Kong’s Status Quo

Nov. 16, 2016 Hong Kong’s High Court rules vocal pro-independence members should lose council seats.

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No Quick Fixes for South Korea’s Economic Woes

Nov. 3, 2016 The country’s export-driven economy is straining to adapt.

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Sticks and Stones

Nov. 3, 2016 The U.S. has faced some tough words from foreign leaders of late, but does it matter?

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China’s Prestige Politics

Oct. 28, 2016 October has been a busy month for Chinese foreign policy.

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A Method to Duterte’s Madness

Oct. 6, 2016 The Philippine president has used some colorful language when speaking of the U.S., but Duterte can’t afford to break ties with the Americans.

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Chinese Companies Are Hiding Their Debt

Oct. 5, 2016 Beijing has to keep state-owned firms afloat to avoid massive unemployment.

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Slower Trade and GDP Growth Lead to More Protectionism, Not Less

Sept. 30, 2016 International institutions offer little help for countries dealing with slowing economies.

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China, Germany and Sliding US Demand

Sept. 21, 2016 Declining U.S. demand for major exporters’ goods could spell disaster.

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China Is Still Really Poor

Sept. 15, 2016 China says it has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. What does that really mean?

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North Korea’s Weapons

Sept. 13, 2016 Pyongyang has launched more nuclear tests but it has a long way to go before developing a nuclear weapon.

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The World Before World War II Re-Emerges

Sept. 8, 2016 Instability runs rampant across the Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen since the years leading up to World War II.

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Making Sense of the China-Japan Relationship

Aug. 26, 2016 Both countries will continue to dance around the disputed islands issue.

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Quantum Keys for Classic Codes: China’s New Satellite

Aug. 22, 2016 Beijing’s recent quantum satellite launch gives us a glimpse at the future of secure communications.

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Rising Debt, Shrinking Investment in China

Aug. 16, 2016 While Beijing knows it needs to reform state-run companies, political and social factors create serious roadblocks.

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China Goes Fishing in the East China Sea

Aug. 9, 2016 China has recently been more brazen in provoking Japan.

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A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges.

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A Chinese Port in the US Storm

July 27, 2016 Leaders of the two countries have recently overlooked some disagreements to emphasize their common interests.

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China’s Problems Are Bigger than Its Leadership Struggle

July 25, 2016 The Communist Party is trying to ensure it can hold the country together.

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Appearances vs. Realities in China

July 21, 2016 Beijing projects an image of strength but its weakness often shapes its polices.

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China, International Law and Reality

July 14, 2016 The South China Sea case proves that laws mean nothing if there is no enforcement mechanism.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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A World of Constraints

July 7, 2016 A leader’s potential actions are far more limited than one would think.

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Xi’s Strong Control Over a Weak Economy

June 16, 2016 The anti-corruption campaign expands to politicians’ families as the yuan takes a dip.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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The Trouble with Ending Wars

June 14, 2016 Today’s U.S. deployments in the Middle East look similar to those in 1972 Vietnam.

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The US’ Distinct Approach to China and India

June 9, 2016 The two most populous nations have very different relationships with the United States.

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Update on Major Forecasts

June 6, 2016 Developments in Germany, China and Kazakhstan indicate our forecast is on track.

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China’s Perspective on North Korea

June 2, 2016 Managing Pyongyang’s outbursts is a valuable tool for Beijing in its relationship with Washington.

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A Moral Necessity

May 26, 2016 Focusing only on casualty numbers ignores the broader context behind the decision to drop the bombs.

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A Picture of American Empire

May 25, 2016 The U.S. wants to be liked, but knows it is feared.

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Vietnam, the US and the Centrality of Geopolitics

May 24, 2016 Based on ideology, Washington should not sell weapons to Hanoi, but it is.

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Power and Ideology: China’s Cultural Revolution

May 16, 2016 The Chinese Communist Party’s power does not stem from its ideology.

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Net Assessment of East Asia

May 12, 2016 The economic downturn in China will have significant consequences for the whole region.

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Chinese Power Struggles

May 10, 2016 President Xi Jinping faces a potential challenger while trying to consolidate power.

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Japan’s Strategy and Its Constitution

May 4, 2016 Tokyo cannot depend on Washington indefinitely.

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China Admits Its Statistics Are Wrong

April 29, 2016 The national anti-corruption agency has reported that hundreds of statistics bureau employees provided preferential data for a fee.

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National Security with Chinese Characteristics

April 25, 2016 The government’s counterespionage efforts are meant to send a message to the Chinese public.

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North Korea, Nukes and Sanity

April 25, 2016 There is rationality behind the North Koreans’ nuclear program.

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A Grain of Salt for China’s Export Growth

April 15, 2016 Recently released data has been celebrated, despite explaining little about the Chinese economy.

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Will Russia and China Become Allies?

April 6, 2016 An alliance between the two massive powers would challenge U.S. global dominance.

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The Political Nature of Strong Armies

March 29, 2016 A military’s role goes beyond fighting wars.

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China’s Problem with Non-Performing Loans

March 15, 2016 Another dimension to Beijing’s economic crisis brought on by slowing growth.

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The US Pivot to Everywhere

March 14, 2016 U.S. strategy demands more of a pirouette than a pivot.

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The Significance of US, Indian and Japanese Naval Exercises

March 4, 2016 While most joint drills are routine gestures, these signal an interesting shift.

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Uncovering What Will Happen for Rising Powers

March 3, 2016 A deeper look at how our geopolitical model informs our forecasts.

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China’s Layoffs Announcement Bodes Ill

March 1, 2016 It’s one thing for millions of Chinese workers to lose their jobs, but it’s another for Beijing to publicly announce it.

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Quantifying Japan’s Trade Vulnerabilities

Feb. 29, 2016 Analyzing who has more at stake in Japanese imports – Japan or its suppliers.

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Chinese Propaganda vs. Western Spin

Feb. 26, 2016 Sometimes the media’s portrayal of an event can be more enlightening than the event itself.

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The Use and Abuse of Law

Feb. 23, 2016 We examine the relationship between law and power in geopolitics.

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The Meaninglessness of Missile Defense in South Korea

Feb. 17, 2016 The strategic situation in the Korean Peninsula would be changed little by the deployment of a missile defense system.

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The Truth About Unemployment in China

Feb. 16, 2016 While unemployment looms large right now, the future Chinese labor force will lack enough workers to keep the economy going.

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Hong Kong and the Future of Chinese Unrest

Feb. 10, 2016 Protests during New Year celebrations may not spell trouble for the Communist Party.

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China and Bad News: The New Normal

Feb. 9, 2016 With the economic downturn now firmly established, it will be important to watch how Beijing responds.

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Examining Japan’s National Security Strategy

Feb. 4, 2016 Incapable of protecting against its main threats on its own, Tokyo is caught between self-reliance and dependency.

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Investment Patterns Shift as Exporters’ Crisis Deepens

Feb. 3, 2016 Foreign direct investment is moving away from export-dependent countries and searching for stability.

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More Indications of China’s Economic Decline

Feb. 1, 2016 While individual indicators may give a limited picture of an economy’s health, additional signs are emerging that the country’s economy is slowing.

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The Geopolitics of Deposit Insurance

Jan. 29, 2016 Governments are growing increasingly worried that public confidence in banking systems may diminish, as financial problems in parts of Europe and Asia escalate.

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Shadowboxing in the South China Sea

Jan. 29, 2016 Pacific powers rattle their sabers, but strategic interests will preclude outright combat.

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The Export Crisis: The 10 Worst Hit Countries and the 5 Most at Risk

Jan. 21, 2016 As the global market for exports declines, we indicate some of the countries that will be most affected by the downturn.

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Thinking About Stock Markets from a Geopolitical Point of View

Jan. 21, 2016 The Chinese economy has been declining for years and oil for at least a year. So why did the markets take so long to start falling and why did they panic yesterday?

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The Philippines’ Role in US Strategy

Jan. 19, 2016 American basing in the Philippines has implications beyond the South China Sea.

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Explaining China’s Anticipated GDP Statistics

Jan. 18, 2016 While the figures are as expected, they highlight serious economic issues.

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China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Continues

Jan. 15, 2016 The Chinese president needs to ensure loyalty from Communist Party members and government officials throughout the country.

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China’s Approach to Internal and External Security

Jan. 12, 2016 For Beijing, maintaining discipline and cohesion in the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army are a national security issue.

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What Happens After China

Jan. 11, 2016 The media was fixated on China’s stock market meltdown last week, but the broader significance of events such as these is their impact on the global export market.

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Xi, the PLA and China’s Future

Jan. 8, 2016 Signs of discord between the Chinese president and the military have been visible and whether the regime can manage the conflict will determine the future course of the country.

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China, Saudi Arabia and Germany: The Export Crisis Matures

Jan. 8, 2016 The impact of the export market’s global decline, which was initiated by the 2008 financial crisis, is reverberating through the supply chain and spreading to more countries.

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The Use of Irrationality in Foreign Affairs

Jan. 7, 2016 The North Korean regime has mastered the art of uncertainty to manipulate the world.

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Deja Vu as Chinese Markets Fall Again

Jan. 6, 2016 Chinese markets closed abruptly for the second time this week, as the government tries to stem the impact of the economic volatility.

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The Significance and Insignificance of a North Korean Hydrogen Bomb

Jan. 6, 2016 If the North Koreans did indeed test a hydrogen bomb, it would be an impressive technical achievement but not a game changer.

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The Inadequacy of Chinese Statistics

Jan. 6, 2016 Why is Beijing preventing Chinese institutions from selling stocks if there is so much foreign investment, and why is there such an increase in the level of capital flight?

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The Bigger Picture in China’s Stock Market Dive

Jan. 5, 2016 Drops in China’s stock market highlight the problems the Chinese government will face in trying to maintain control of the country, as the economy weakens.

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Impact of Chinese Market Decline

Jan. 4, 2016 The market decline indicates an underlying lack of confidence in the economy and in the state’s regulatory regime.

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The Chinese Central Committee and the People’s Liberation Army Face Off

Dec. 31, 2015 Sources in China are reporting increased tension between the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

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China’s New Employment Plan

Dec. 29, 2015 After introducing reforms that will leave tens of thousands of soldiers unemployed, the Chinese government has ordered state-owned enterprises to offer preferential hiring to veterans.

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Signs of Political Instability in South Korea

Dec. 18, 2015 In addition to the precipitous decline in South Korean exports that indicate economic trouble for Seoul, there are worrying signs of political instability and stalemate in the country.

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Army Reforms in China

Dec. 11, 2015 The Chinese government has started implementing changes to the People’s Liberation Army, in an attempt to centralize power in Beijing.

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China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign

Dec. 7, 2015 The government is reportedly expanding its campaign against corrupt officials over the next two years.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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