‘Wild Capitalism’ in Venezuela

The Maduro administration has become more creative and resourceful as it seeks to remain in power.

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

Daily Memo: The Lebanese Crisis, Lavrov’s Washington Visit, Argentine Debt

The uncertainty in Lebanon doesn't seem to be subsiding, and the Russian foreign minister holds meetings in Washington.

A Common Theme of Global Unrest

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From Hong Kong to Tehran to Buenos Aires, the world appears to be destabilizing. The question that has been raised is whether there is...

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics […]

Bolivia’s Crisis of Legitimacy

After Morales’ resignation, will the next Bolivian government be able to win the support of the people?

Delayed Response: South America’s Unrest

The current social, economic and political unrest in the region has been building since the 2008 financial crisis.

Daily Memo: Bolivian Political Uncertainty, a Slew of Sanctions, Chinese Market...

Bolivia's president resigns, and the U.S. and EU threaten new sanctions.

In South America, US Influence Faces a Backlash

As countries start to feel the effects of an economic downturn, they’ll push back against the U.S. economic order.

Daily Memo: US-China Trade Talks, North Korean Missile Tests, Israel on...

The U.S. and China will reportedly meet on Friday for further trade negotiations, and North Korea fires two projectiles into the Sea of Japan.