The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

New Borders in India: The Bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir

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With the dismantling of Article 370, the Bharatiya Janata Party has stripped the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy.

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

India’s Fate Is in Its Own Hands

To achieve its strategic objectives, the U.S. has little choice but to court this underachieving power.

The Year in U.S.-Taliban Peace Talks

In our 2019 forecast, we predicted the United States and the Taliban would reach a deal in Afghanistan and that before the end of the year Washington would announce a schedule for withdrawing the bulk of its forces. That forecast seems roughly on track, but the year is only halfway over, and there is a long way to go.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Second Quarter Update

The trade war roller coaster, the economy's other shoe, the offensive against Iran.

India: One State, Many Countries

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May 19, 2016 As the rest of Eurasia slides further into crisis, the only thing getting in India’s way is India.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics […]