Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Protests in Baghdad, Clashes in Libya, a New Path...

Iraqi protesters storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and heavy clashes erupt near Tripoli.

The Russian Military: By the Numbers

The third installment in a three-part series exploring the past, present and future of Russian military reform.

The Russian Military: Forging a Foreign Policy Tool

The second installment in a three-part series exploring the past, present and future of Russian military reform.

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

China’s Enigmatic Loan to Belarus

Chinese money risks tipping the balance in the former Soviet country away from Russia.

Daily Memo: Denuclearizing North Korea, Redefining Trade, Courting India

Regional actors appear to be coalescing around the issue of Pyongyang’s controversial program.

Daily Memo: Syria Reconstruction, German Labor Shortages, Nuclear North Korea

Damascus intends to rebuild the country before the war even ends.

The Russian Military: Moscow’s Greatest Ally and Worst Enemy

The first installment in a three-part series exploring the past, present and future of Russian military reform.

Daily Memo: US Missile Test, Trade Deal Confusion, Brexit Go-Ahead

RIP, INF. The Pentagon tested a conventionally configured ground-launched ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force base in California. The test was formally prohibited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which the U.S. formally withdrew from in August. This was the second test that the U.S. has conducted that violates the INF, with the Pentagon […]

Cracks Appear in the Turkey-Russia Partnership

The contradictions in the Turkish-Russian relationship, which seemed on the surface to be blossoming in recent months, are beginning to show themselves. Any one of these signs of trouble on its own may not be important. However, when grouped together, they paint a gloomy picture of what may lie ahead for this bilateral relationship. As […]

Daily Memo: The Lebanese Crisis, Lavrov’s Washington Visit, Argentine Debt

The uncertainty in Lebanon doesn't seem to be subsiding, and the Russian foreign minister holds meetings in Washington.