The Role of Political Leaders

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Even the most powerful ones are constrained by impersonal forces.

A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US

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Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

Russia’s Puzzling Moves

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Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government....

A Trip to Romania

The first time I visited post-communist Romania was in 2009, the same year my book “The Next 100 Years” was published. In it, I forecast that Russia would become increasingly aggressive and, over time, increasingly weak as its underlying economic problems manifested themselves. I also forecast that Ukraine would become the flashpoint between Russia and […]

1989-1992: A Global Pivot

It was a time that changed everything.

The Jerusalem Talks

Security officials from Russia, the U.S. and Israel are meeting next week to discuss regional developments.

Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

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June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

Russian Intelligence and Immigration in Europe

Russia may be supporting anti-immigration groups, but it will make no difference to geopolitical forces in Europe.

The Revolution in Military Affairs

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The concept is becoming relevant once again.

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Turkish Proxies and Russian Forces Clash in Syria

While details of the attack on Russian forces remain scant, it could have serious implications for relations between Turkey, Russia and the United States.