The State of the Islamic State

Director of Analysis Jacob L. Shapiro and Managing Editor Cole Altom discuss one of the more brutal jihadist groups the Middle East has ever seen. For a deeper look, get the full report: The Rise and Fall of the Islamic State.

Trade Wars, Real Wars, China and America

The accuracy of a media narrative depends on the motives of the agency that spins it. After previewing the week ahead, Jacob L. Shapiro and Cole Altom dissect Chinese media to get a sense of China’s military ambitions – and explain why Beijing has a lot of work to do before it can supplant Washington as the world’s leading power. Sign up here for free updates on topics like this.

Making Sense of the Syrian War

Syria is a mess. New alliances form as quickly as they fall apart. Cease-fires are agreed to and summarily ignored. Russians, Turks, Americans, Iranians, Kurds, Lebanese, Saudis and, of course, Syrians all have vested interests in outcome of the war. Jacob, Cole and Xander lay out what those interests are and catch up on what proved to be a very eventful week in northern Syria. Sign up for free updates on topics like this!

Italy’s View of France and Germany

GPF Director Jacob Shapiro welcomes special guest Dario Fabbri, Senior Analyst at Limes, to talk about Italy’s view of Europe. Along the way, they touch on Italy’s relationship with the U.S., Germany’s lack of strategy and France’s double-edged demographic advantage.

Intro music: Antonio Vivaldi, Concerto No. 1 In E major, performed by John Harrison (violin) with Robert Turizziani conducting the Wichita State University Chamber Players.

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Turkey and the US: An On-Again, Off-Again Relationship

The U.S. and Turkey have a lot of big mutual problems (Iran, the Islamic State, Bashar Assad) yet seem to be preoccupied by much smaller ones (pastors and alleged deep state operatives). To help explain why this is so, this week’s episode checks in on the status of U.S.-Turkey relations. Also, what’s with the stories about Rex Tillerson preventing a Saudi invasion of Qatar?

Countries That Confuse Us

Geopolitics is slow and largely predictable, but anyone who claims to have all the answers for an international system as strange and as volatile as ours isn’t paying enough attention. Some countries are just plain difficult to understand, whatever the reason. For some, it’s a lack of data. For others, it’s unrealized potential. For others still, it’s overachievement. With our annual forecast on the horizon, this is the time of year when we revisit our assumptions about what makes the world go ‘round, especially the countries that are now the basis of political organization. So now is the perfect opportunity for Allison, Phil, Jacob and Cole to discuss the countries they can’t quite pin down.

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If Iran Went Nuclear, Would It Even Matter?

The heat is on Iran. Its economy is faltering. The currency is falling. The people are protesting. The government is threatening to close down the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed U.S. sanctions didn’t directly cause all these problems, of course, but they sure didn’t help. And they wouldn’t be an issue had U.S. stayed party to the Iran nuclear agreement. Is this the end of the reconciliation, or just a minor setback? If the deal is forever dead, will Iran now go nuclear? Would doing so achieve its regional objectives? Does deterrence strategy still hold? In this episode, recorded not-live but in-person, Jacob, Cole, Phil and special guest Ryan answer these questions and probably a lot of others you never thought to ask. And they do it without the comfort of an air conditioner.

2019 Forecast Preview: Part 2

2018 is coming to an end, so there’s no better time to think about the future. Every year, GPF produces an Annual Forecast that lays out the trends that will shape the international system, and 2019 is no different. The report, which publishes next week, will showcase predictions on the global economy, power politics in unlikely places, European disunion, developments in the Middle East and much more. In this week’s podcast, hosts Jacob and Cole will give you a sneak peek of what’s to come.

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The Rohingya Crisis Making Geopolitical Waves

Sept. 8, 2017 States and non-state entities outside the region are beginning to take a greater interest in Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis. Sign up here for free updates on topics like this.

Not Another Cold War: Part 2

GPF Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro welcomes Dr. Andrey Sushentsov, founder and head of Eurasian Strategies, to the show to discuss US-Russia relations and what Americans and Russians don’t understand about each other.

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What Does a US-North Korea War Look Like?

June 2, 2017

Xander Snyder and Jacob Shapiro get down to specifics in what a potential war would look like, and ask each other why the US always seems to fight its wars in the same place. Click here to sign up for free updates on topics like this.

50 Years After the Six-Day War

March 21, 2017

Jacob L. Shapiro and Kamran Bokhari discuss the geopolitical importance of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, and whether the realities it created will define the future. Click here to sign up for free updates on topics like this.