HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

The Myth of a Rules-Based World

Two concepts have been constantly used in discussions of international relations of late. One is a liberal international order and the second is a rules-based system. In the former, the term “liberal” does not have much to do with what Americans call liberalism. Rather, it describes an international system that is committed to human rights, […]

China as a Third World Country

There is much discussion about the surging Chinese economy and the expanding international influence of China. There is no question that China’s economy has...

The Problem With Face Masks and Vaccinations

On Thursday, my wife and I got our second COVID-19 vaccination. I would like to go to a bar, strike up a conversation with...

On the Suez Canal and Chokepoints

I’ve often written about chokepoints – those narrow passageways, on land or at sea, that are essential for the movement of goods and people...

Russia, China and the United States: First Shots

Any time there is a new U.S. president, major powers set out to test him and lay the groundwork for future bargaining in potential...

Poetry and Forecasting

Earlier this week, I wrote an analysis about China’s strategy, the kind of piece that is what is expected in this industry. I end...

China’s Strategic Standpoint

One of the hardest problems of foreign policy is developing an accurate evaluation of a potential adversary’s intentions and capabilities, which are frequently separate...

A Good Man Is Hard to Find

Last week, I wrote about the disagreement over which course the United States should take in the fight against the coronavirus. I concluded by...

B-52s in the Middle East

For all the world’s vastness and complexity, my attention is constantly drawn back to the Middle East, where there is much to think about....

COVID-19 and the American Climax

On Tuesday, I received my first COVID-19 vaccine dose by driving over 100 miles to Waco, Texas, to a CVS Pharmacy where the vaccine...

The US, Iran and Bargaining Positions

The Iranian government has announced that it will not attend the first round of negotiations over restoring the agreement that limited its ability to...

Know Your Enemy

The most important thing in poker is knowing who you are playing against. You need to know his weakness – not all of them,...

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