HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

A Shift in Russian Wartime Policy?

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published a statement made by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that we regard as a significant shift in Russian foreign policy. He said the demilitarized zone in Ukraine should be pushed back farther away from Russian territories – far enough that it would be safe from “long-range weapons of […]

U.S. and Iranian Intentions

Three U.S. servicemen were killed during a drone attack last night on a military base in Jordan, located near the Syrian border. President Joe...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history...

AUKUS in 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting...

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans....

The Strategies of the Israel-Hamas War

It is difficult to understand the strategy of a country at war sitting outside the command center. However, when analyzed from the initiation of...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

China and the Philippines Square Off

The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

2024 Annual Forecast: America and War

In our 2024 forecast published last week, where we laid out the domestic issues facing the United States, we said we do not foresee...

2024 Annual Forecast: The United States

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Upcoming New Forecasts

A while ago, I wrote about preparing a new batch of short-term and 20- to 30-year forecasts. We are now finalizing and readying them...

Latest Posts

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


The Geopolitics of the American President

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now