HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

The Death of Gorbachev

Mikhail Gorbachev died a man whose time had long passed. He saw the opportunity to create a new Russia, built around a reformist movement known as Glasnost and Perestroika. He understood that the Soviet Union could not survive as it was, though he was not the first to see it: Yuri Andropov, a superb head […]

The German Weapons Shortage

Germanyā€™s foreign minister suggested this week that Germany cannot send more of its own weapons to Ukraine because it has deficient supplies. If this...

Reflections on the Black Sea

In 2019, my wife and I went to Romania, where in addition to meeting with Romanian leaders and military brass, we visited Constanta, a...

The Permanence of War and Peace

Last week my friend and colleague, Jacek Bartosiak, wrote a piece for GPF titled ā€œThe Scalable World War Ahead,ā€ in which he warned that...

When Russia Prepared for the Inconceivable

Many of our readers have challenged my idea that Russia invaded Ukraine out of fear ā€“ fear that, deprived of the strategic depth Ukraine...

China and Russiaā€™s Strategic Problem

The war in Ukraine, now about 6 months old, is strategically important for a variety of reasons. If Russia defeats Ukraine and takes control...

Homage to the Bronx

When my wife and I arrived at the Las Vegas airport recently, we saw a sign advertising a show called ā€œThe Bronx Wanderers,ā€ apparently...

The Fallout Over Taiwan

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosiā€™s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...

America, War and the Atlantic

On Aug. 1, 1914, Germany declared war on Russia. Two days later, Germany declared war on France. The following day, Britain declared war on...

Destabilizing Major Powers

The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

The Flank of War

The arena for the Russian-Ukrainian war is obviously Ukraine. But as in most wars, the main arena does not define the war as a...

Strange Events and the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russia and Ukraine have signed an agreement to permit the shipping of grain through the Black Sea to world markets. A few hours after...

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