The Thucydides Trap and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

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Roughly 2,400 years ago, Thucydides, a Greek historian and author of “History of the Peloponnesian War,” expressed a view that resonates in strategic thinking to...

The Most Important Coronavirus Question

How dangerous is coronavirus to public health?

Iran’s Miscalculation in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran is disrupting freedom of navigation at a critical chokepoint in the oil trade. That’s something the U.S. can’t accept for very long.

Recession and Depression

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A recession is an essential part of the business cycle. Among other things it culls the weaker businesses and redistributes capital and labor for...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: China and a Global Economic Contraction

The protests in Hong Kong must be understood in the context of a global economic slowdown.

The Battle for the Past

Whoever defines the past controls the present and future.

China, Mexico and US Trade

China is no longer the United States’ top trade partner. What does this mean for Mexico?

Why War With Iran Isn’t in the United States’ Interests

The strategic calculus behind such a confrontation just doesn’t benefit the U.S.

New US Strategy and Technology

The world is facing a fundamental strategic and technical shift in both the geopolitics of war and its dynamic. The shift is being driven by the United States’ decision to change its global strategic posture and the maturation of new classes of weaponry that change how wars will be fought. U.S. Posture The U.S. has publicly announced a change in American strategy consisting of two parts. The first is abandoning the focus on jihadists that began with al-Qaida’s attack on the U.S. in 2001. The second is reshaping and redefining forces to confront China and Russia. For a while, it had been assumed that there would no longer be peer-to-peer conflicts but rather extended combat against light infantry and covert forces such as was taking place in Afghanistan. After every international confrontation, including the Cold War, the absence of immediate peer threats leads strategists to assume that none will emerge, and that the future engagements will involve managing instability rather than defeating peers. This illusion is the reward of comfort to the victorious powers. Immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union, the belief was that the only issue facing the world was economic, and that military strategy was archaic. […]

The Hong Kong Extradition Bill and China’s Weakness

The proposed law is a sign that China isn’t as strong as it would like everyone to believe.

Russia’s Puzzling Moves

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Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government....

The Fragmentation of the European Union

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At the end of this week, the United Kingdom, the second-largest economy in Europe, will exit the European Union. Meanwhile, Poland is under intense...