China Is Still Really Poor


Sept. 15, 2016 China says it has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. What does that really mean?

Turkey Makes Its Move

In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble...

Power and the Rise and Fall of Nations

Last week, I appeared on a Turkish TV station and spoke to a business group in Switzerland. The same question was the focus of...

Back to the Future: China and the US

The COVID-19 disease, which seems likely to be with us for a long time, has done its part to define history. But it has...

Why Mexico Belongs in North America


Aug. 3, 2016 Its geopolitical reality is not consistent with its categorization as a Latin American country.

US-China Trade Talks and American Strategy

The United States is shifting from military to economic warfare.

The Beginning of Social Dysfunction

A few weeks ago, I laid out a model for thinking about the coronavirus crisis. I argued that there were four structures operating: medical,...

A Tale of Two Economies: Russia and the US


Nov. 29, 2016 Regionalization can reveal much about countries’ economic structure and relative power.

The US, Iran and a New American Deployment

Iran’s influence has spread across the Middle East, and the U.S. is pushing back.

Iran and the Problem of Occupation Warfare

For the U.S., defeating the Iranian military wouldn’t be the end of the war.

The EMP Threat: How It Works and What It Means for the Korean Crisis


Given the uncertainty surrounding the crisis, the threat of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse attack can’t be dismissed completely.

The Geopolitics of the Novel Coronavirus

Geopolitics is a fairly slow-moving process that unfolds in predictable ways. This is usually the case. There are then moments when a wild card...