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The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Daily Memo: Iran’s Uranium

Qatar at the GCC. Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will lead a delegation to the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, which kicks off...

Daily Memo: Assassination Anniversary

Tensions around Iran. The upcoming anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, is creating tensions throughout the Middle...

The State of Play in North Korea

In a White House meeting just weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, then-President Barack Obama warned the president-elect that the North Korean nuclear threat would...

Daily Memo: New Tariffs in Europe, Combat Readiness in the Middle East

TAP supplies. Azerbaijan has begun to supply natural gas to southern Europe via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. Though the pipeline will eventually transport 10 billion...

Life After Brexit

On Dec. 21, France closed its border to the United Kingdom after reports of a new, more infectious coronavirus strain spreading in England. Already...

Daily Memo: Beijing and Brussels Talk Investment Deal, Pyongyang Prepares for 2021

Making a deal. China and the EU appear to be inching ever closer to inking a landmark investment deal following seven years of negotiations....

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

Daily Memo: Russia-Turkey Talks, Palestinian Drills

Russia and Turkey talk. In the Russian resort city of Sochi, the foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey met to discuss a range of...

In Arab Monarchies, Absolute Rule May Be Dwindling

The Arab world’s eight monarchies are among the last remaining absolute monarchies on Earth. In some ways, they have proved surprisingly durable. Compared to...

Daily Memo: Duterte’s Threats, Pakistani Attacks

Philippine threats. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is threatening, yet again, to scrap Manila's pivotal Visiting Forces Agreement with Washington if the U.S. doesn't deliver...

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COVID-19’s Impact on Labor

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(click to enlarge) A key trend in 2021 is the rebalancing of the global economic...

Daily Memo: Sanctions and Trade Deals

Happy anniversary to a trade deal. It's the one-year anniversary of the signing of...

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