A Common Theme of Global Unrest

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From Hong Kong to Tehran to Buenos Aires, the world appears to be destabilizing. The question that has been raised is whether there is...

Watch List: Aug. 9, 2017

The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues. South Korea: An official from South Korea’s presidential office said that the North Korean conflict is not an imminent crisis and that a diplomatic resolution is highly probable. Will South Korea make its own deal with the North to head off war? What would it look like? Russia: The pressure on Russia is building. In response to queries about rumored U.S. training facilities being built in Moldova, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said the U.S. was going to start training special operation forces there. Ukraine canceled an agreement with Russia on military exports. The Czech ambassador to Ukraine suggested that the Czechs might supply Ukraine with certain types of military equipment. The Polish foreign minister raised the possibility of NATO responses to any potential Russian military activity. This looks like an orchestrated response driven by […]

OPEC’s Prisoner’s Dilemma

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Dec. 1, 2016 OPEC countries have an agreement on production, but will they abide by it?

The New McCarthyism

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April 27, 2017 Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s tactics are now being used against another group.

Examining Japan’s National Security Strategy

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Feb. 4, 2016 Incapable of protecting against its main threats on its own, Tokyo is caught between self-reliance and dependency.

Germany Again

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Sept. 20, 2016 The results of state elections in Berlin may be another indicator of an economic downturn.

Watch List: Nov. 29, 2017

Status of North Korea’s missile guidance system, conflicting statements from Israel

Canada’s Turn to Negotiate

Mexico was the easier partner in NAFTA talks.

Watch List: March 27, 2017

The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues. Russia: Russians staged nationwide protests on March 26 against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s alleged corrupt business practices and, more broadly, the government of President Vladimir Putin. This aligns with our assessment of a weakening regime in Russia and is by far the most critical item of the day. Participants numbered in the low tens of thousands across 82 cities. We need to benchmark the recent protests and keep an eye on potential challenges in the Caucasus, particularly Chechnya, that could destabilize Russia or the region. Syria: The co-leader of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party, Saleh Muslim, said that once Raqqa is free from the Islamic State, it can join the Kurds’ federal system. The Syrian Democratic Forces and IS continue to battle for control of Raqqa, and the fate of liberated cities will be largely […]

Watch List: April 4, 2018

China hits U.S. with tariffs, Iran to sign free trade deal, demonstrations in Montenegro