A Strange Article From Tass

We normally never publish articles written by others, but we must make an exception in this case. The BBC Monitoring service reported on an article published by Tass, the official Russian news agency. It described the article as follows:

Kremlin accuses West of turning Ukraine invasion into ‘real war’
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has accused the West of turning Russia’s “special military operation” (SVO; Russia’s name for its invasion of Ukraine) into a “real war”.

“A war is taking place; this is a real war. Do you know why it is a war? Because it all started as a special military operation. It is continuing as a war, because Kyiv is backed by Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Oslo and, unfortunately, Washington,” Peskov told state broadcaster VGTRK reporter Pavel Zarubin in an interview, as quoted by state news agency TASS on 5 July.

“Because they are helping them aim through their satellites, they are helping them calibrate Western weapons on our targets through the entirety of their infrastructure,” Peskov added.

Source: TASS news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1013 GMT 5 Jul 26

The Russians have always referred to their invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than an invasion or a war. It started in February 2022 as a major operation with multiple thrusts involving infantry, armor, artillery and air support. One thrust came from the north and attempted to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, but the Russians were stopped in the outlying suburbs very early in the war.

I was always unsure why the Russians chose to call this a special military operation instead of a war. My primary theory was that they expected the invasion to end in a rapid victory, and they were trying to keep the Russian public thinking that the nation was not at war but simply carrying out a straightforward exercise. Another theory I had was that they wanted to emphasize their massive military power by trying to show that they did not need to go to “war” to occupy Ukraine. Another possibility is that some bureaucrat had made up the name as Russian forces were being deployed for the invasion, and it stuck.

More than four years later, the Russians have failed to reach their goal, in the process incurring and inflicting massive casualties. They failed to defeat the Ukrainian military and occupy Ukraine. At this point, they keep calling it a special military operation so that they do not have to admit the weakness of their warfighting capability.

In the Tass article, they made a much more creative argument, obviously with President Vladimir Putin’s approval. In this new telling, Russia was engaged only in a special military operation, and the nations that supported Ukraine are responsible for turning it into a war. Peskov names the accused nations and mentions the assets they provided the Ukrainians. With those nations throwing their weight behind Ukraine, according to this view, Russia was forced to defend itself.

As weird as this sounds, there may be an ominous significance to the claim that the war was started by the nations named. If they started the war, Russia would be justified in taking action against them. Given the performance of the Russian army in Ukraine, and the limits of its available forces, an attack on the nations named would not appear possible. But desperate nations have been known to do desperate things. There have been many high-level meetings in Russia in the past week, as well as leaks indicating that the Russians are considering the use of what they call tactical nuclear weapons. Other rumors have Russia planning to use Belarusian territory to open a new front in the war, or preparing to call up a large number of young people to serve in the military – which the Russian public likely would not welcome.

The Russian position has significantly weakened of late. Their economy is in deep trouble, with resources being diverted toward the military and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries creating a significant fuel shortage. If the Russians continue fighting as they have, the conflict will not end in victory. Thus, a major increase in military power is needed.

However, if these other nations started the war, then obviously they are Russia’s enemies, and Russia has not only the right but the imperative to defend itself with whatever means necessary. Interestingly, Russia in the past few days has blocked all rail traffic with Finland and some Baltic states.

When we consider the condition of the Russian military and economy, there would appear to be little ability for Russia to expand the war. On the other hand, by discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons – however small – against Ukraine and allowing the discussion to leak, the Russians might be warning Ukraine’s supporters that they should not discount the actions Russia might take, including the use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. They seem to be assuming that the risk of a Russian attack, however unlikely, might force these nations to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war on Russian terms.

Including the United States in the list of warmongers is dangerous, but at this point Russia, and particularly Putin, must do something to change the way the war is evolving. That Russian state media is widely disseminating Peskov’s quote forces these nations to take it seriously. It should be noted that no threats against these countries were specifically stated. But Putin is in a very difficult position, and the improbable should not be dismissed. The risk may be small that he wants to start a nuclear war and would not be stopped by those around him, but the consequences would be great.

In the end, I see this as a desperate move to compel Ukraine’s supporters to force Kyiv to make concessions. Putin may need to play this hand the way I imagine it. The next question is how secure Putin himself is after failing in the “special military operation.”