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Daily Memo: Macron in the Gulf, Protests in Serbia

French diplomacy. French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met...

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What We’re Reading: Good Sci-Fi, Bad Documentaries

The Collapsing Empire By John Scalzi I’ll start with a confession: I’m not much of a...

What We’re Reading: The Benghazi Attack

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Produced and Directed by Michael Bay With “13 Hours:...

What We’re Reading: Delusional Foreign Policy

The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities By John J. Mearsheimer I was looking...

In the Middle East, a New Era of Alliances Emerges

Middle Eastern relations as we’ve known them for decades are over. As ambitious states...

Why the Poland-Belarus Border Crisis Won’t Last

Images of migrants – many of them with children, coming mainly from the Middle...

Featured Analysis

The Illusion of Arab Nationalism

The Arab uprisings briefly resurrected the idea of Arab nationalism. During the 2011 Pan Arab Games in Qatar, spectators sang the unofficial Arab national...

The Debate Over America First

Since the 1930s, there has been a debate in the United States over a...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied...

Russia’s Move

Russia is not a trustful country – for good reason. Germany invaded it twice...

Japan’s Indispensable Role in Southeast Asia

One of the funnier moments of the past few years in geopolitics took place...

Global Migration Trends

(click to enlarge) Broadly speaking, there are two main drivers of migration: the search for economic opportunity, and displacement by violence, insecurity or political events....

UK Trade Policy After Brexit

(click to enlarge) The United Kingdom is trying to redefine its role in the international system after leaving the European Union. A significant part of...

From the Earth to the Moon

I spent the past few nights watching the series, “From the Earth to the Moon,” which depicts the American side of the space race....

The Storm Before the Calm

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The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2020

Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020.

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Media / Interviews

RealClearWorld: Forecasting Time

Around November each year, we at GPF begin our forecasting process for the coming year. In a real sense, we are always forecasting, as...

RealClearWorld: Supply Chains: Our Parachute Moment

The global supply chain crisis is not about receiving Christmas gifts; it’s about whether medicine and food will be stocked in time. This may...

Cicero: Über Die Ära Nach Merkel

Mit der Bundestagswahl endet auch die Regierungszeit Angela Merkels. Als Bundeskanzlerin hat sie nicht nur deutsche, sondern auch europäische Geschichte geschrieben – im positiven...

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The Debate Over America First

Since the 1930s, there has been a debate in the United States over a foreign policy based on “America First,” a nationalistic policy that...

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